Increasing the usability and accessibility of geodynamic modelling tools to the geoscience community: UnderworldGUI

Geoscientists are faced with a number of complexities that represent obstacles to the development of realistic simulation of deep earth processes. Realistic 4D thermo-mechanical simulation using software packages like Underworld and Gale, when combined appropriately with geoscientific expertise, can lead to novel insights into the deformation of geological structures at a wide range of time and spatial scales. The challenge for end-user geoscientists lies in applying their knowledge within the framework of the software’s input specification, including initial, internal, and boundary conditions and output visualization parameters. We have built a Graphical User Interface (GUI) to remove many of the difficulties related to editing the Extensible Markup Language (XML) encoded input files of Underworld/Gale geomodels and therefore, to greatly broaden the user base of these software packages. By helping Underworld/Gale to meet a large audience, we provide a tool to the geoscience community that helps to move from untested conceptual models to physically valid, properly scaled modelling. Furthermore, the UnderworldGUI offers a mechanism for storing and retrieving experimental models in a centralised database, thus providing the geoscience community with a means to share the outcomes of its experimental research. Further details of the UnderworldGUI are available at the web site http://www.wiki.vislab.usyd.edu.au/moinwiki/UnderworldGUI.     

Managing the duality of IHRM: unravelling the strategy and perceptions of key actors in South Korean MNCs

This research aims to extend our understanding of the duality between global integration and local responsiveness in multinational corporations (MNCs) by exploring the perceptions of corporate HR actors regarding the intra-organisational factors that alter the balance between these pressures. It examines the perceptions and actions of key actors in the context of two Korean MNCs. The study shows the importance attributed to a range of socio-procedural factors by corporate actors and which, therefore, inform the practical management of the dual forces, notably: HR expertise, social ties, trustworthy relationships and co-involvement in decision processes.     

Interest rate assumptions and predictive accuracy of central bank forecasts

The interest rate assumptions for macroeconomic forecasts differ among central banks. Common approaches are given by the assumptions that interest rates remain constant over the forecast horizon, follow a path as expected by market participants or follow a path as expected by the central bank itself. Theoretical papers such as Svensson (The instrument-rate projection under inflation targeting: the Norwegian example. Centre for European Policy Studies Working Paper (127), 2006) and Galí (J Monet Econ 58:537–550, 2011) suggest an accuracy ranking for these forecasts, from employing central bank expectations yielding the highest forecast accuracy to conditioning on constant interest rates yielding the lowest. Yet, when investigating the predictive accuracy of the Bank of England’s and the Banco Central do Brasil’s forecasts for interest rates, inflation and output growth, we hardly find any significant differences between forecasts based on the different interest rate paths. Our results suggest that the choice of the interest rate assumption appears to be of minor relevance empirically.     

Modelling country default risk as a latent variable: a multiple indicators multiple causes approach

We study the determinants of country default risk by applying a Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model. This accounts for the fact that country default risk is an unobservable variable. Whereas existing (regression-based) approaches typically use only one of several possible country default risk indicators as the dependent variable, the MIMIC model enables us to consider several indicators at once. The simultaneous consideration of sovereign yield spreads and Standard and Poor (S&P) ratings may help to improve the identification of the latent country default risk. Our results confirm most of the literature's main findings regarding important determinants of country default risk, refute others and provide new evidence to controversial questions.     

AIDS treatment and intrahousehold resource allocation: Children's nutrition and schooling in Kenya

The provision of antiretroviral medications is a central component of the response to HIV/AIDS and consumes substantial public resources from around the world, but little is known about this intervention's impact on the welfare of children in treated persons' households. Using longitudinal survey data from Kenya, we examine the relationship between the provision of treatment to adults and the schooling and nutrition outcomes of children in their households. Weekly hours of school attendance increase by over 20% within 6 months after treatment is initiated for the adult patient. We find some weak evidence that young children's short-term nutritional status also improves. These results suggest how intrahousehold allocations of time and resources may be altered in response to health improvements of adults.     

Estimating correlation and covariance matrices by weighting of market similarity

We discuss a weighted estimation of correlation and covariance matrices from historical financial data. To this end, we introduce a weighting scheme that accounts for the similarity of previous market conditions to the present situation. The resulting estimators are less biased and show lower variance than either unweighted or exponentially weighted estimators. The weighting scheme is based on a similarity measure that compares the current correlation structure of the market to the structures at past times. Similarity is then measured by the matrix 2-norm of the difference of probe correlation matrices estimated for two different points in time. The method is validated in a simulation study and tested empirically in the context of mean–variance portfolio optimization. In the latter case we find an enhanced realized portfolio return as well as a reduced portfolio risk compared with alternative approaches based on different strategies and estimators.     

Participatory planning of industrial R&D activities

This paper summarizes and comments on the methodology actually employed in participatory planning of R&D activities for the iron and steel industry in Turkey. Through an organized collaboration with more than a hundred managers, engineers, experts, and planners: (1) technical, managerial, financial, and social problems that are obstacles to the achievement of predetermined goals for the industry are identified and defined; (2) these problems are formulated as R&D candidate projects; and (3) a set of R&D candidate projects are selected for implementation in the 1980s.     

Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?

Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find evidence of forecaster herding. On the contrary, forecasters anti‐herd and, thereby, tend to intentionally scatter their forecasts around the consensus forecast. The extent of anti‐herding seems to vary over time. We also found that more pronounced anti‐herding leads to less accurate forecasts.     

Why (not) cooperate? A cognitive model of farmers’ intention to join producer groups in Romania

After the breakdown of the communist regime in Romania, collective farms were replaced by a large number of small-scale private farms. Although cooperation seems to be a favourable choice for these smallholders, it did not develop as perhaps expected. This article explores the factors that determine the formation of the intention of Romanian vegetable farmers to join marketing cooperatives in the form of so called producer groups. Our theoretical framework refers to Ajzen’s Theory of Planned Behaviour, which we model with a structural equation model. We identified as main intention drivers the expectation for better prices and easier access to capital. Perceived family support is another significant factor. The level of distrust is high. Although our trust variable is not significant as a predictor of the intention to cooperate in the model, we find qualitative indications that trust plays a role when the intention is translated into actual behaviour.