Mehr Schutz vor ausländischen Direktinvestitionen?

Currently, there is no comprehensive legal framework at EU level to screen foreign direct investments (FDI) into the EU. In September 2017, the European Commission proposed a framework for screening foreign direct investments into the European Union. The reform will likely come into force at the end of 2018. This paper describes the political background and key concepts of the FDI screening framework and analyses potential economic effects of the new regulation.     

Financial intermediation and the role of price discrimination in the foreign exchange market

Foreign exchange trading is performed in opaque and decentralized markets. The two-tier market structure consisting of a customer segment and an interdealer segment to which only market makers have access gives rise to the possibility of price discrimination. We develop a theoretical pricing model that accounts for market-power considerations and analyze a database of the trades of a foreign exchange market maker. We find that the market maker generally exerts low bargaining power vis-á-vis customers. The dealer earns lower average spreads on trades with financial customers than commercial customers, even though the former are perceived to convey exchange-rate-relevant information.     

Home-field advantage or a matter of ambiguity aversion? Local bias among German individual investors

This paper investigates whether familiarity induced by ambiguity aversion can help explaining the local bias phenomenon among individual investors. Using geographic closeness as a proxy for investor familiarity, we find that investors pull out of (unfamiliar) remote stocks and pour into (familiar) local stocks during times of increased market uncertainty. Moreover, the magnitude of this ‘flight to familiarity’ increases in the spread of an investor's ambiguity (about expected returns) between local and remote stocks. Our results prove robust to a number of alternative explanations of local bias. Specifically, we rule out a ‘home-field advantage’, where investors are able to translate information advantages about nearby companies into excess returns on their local stockholdings. We conclude that individual investors’ local bias is induced by ambiguity aversion in the portfolio selection process rather than a trading strategy based on superior information about local companies.     

Modeling the dynamics of inflation compensation

This paper investigates the relationship between short-term and long-term inflation expectations using daily data on inflation compensation derived from the term structure of real and nominal interest rates. We use a flexible econometric model which allows us to uncover this relationship in a data-based manner. We relate our findings to the issue of whether inflation expectations are anchored, unmoored or contained. Our empirical results indicate no support for either unmoored or firmly anchored inflation expectations. Most evidence indicates that inflation expectations are contained.     

The perceived probability of job loss and future labour market outcomes

Longitudinal survey data are used to test the degree to which worker expectations of future job loss are correlated with changes in labour market status. Three major findings are reported. First, perceived probabilities of expected job loss are only weakly related to both exogenous job separations and subsequent transitions to unemployment and inactivity. Second, while fears of job loss tend to persist across time and job spells, they do so at a highly diminishing rate. Third, quit intentions are strongly correlated with both voluntary separations and transitions to alternative employment, and do not diminish greatly across successive employment spells.     

Mulaik on atomism, contraposition and causation

Causal inference using statistical models plays a central role in many areas of behavioral science, but the underlying metatheory of causal explanation remains poorly developed. Mulaik’s work on causation offers a useful foray into this topic. Evaluation of two negative arguments applied to a broad range of theories of causation offer overdue critical assessment of this contribution. More broadly, the critical evaluation of Mulaik’s arguments speak to the need for better integration of substantive theories and statistical models in causal research.