Trading the forward bias: Are there limits to speculation?

In this paper we investigate whether trading the forward bias allows for economically significant excess returns. We find that bias-trading strategies can be viewed as attractive investment opportunities per se, useful diversification devices, and promising portfolio extensions for active fund managers trying to beat their benchmarks. The empirical results, which also mirror the problems arising in attempts to explain the puzzle by risk-premia, are consistent with market evidence that the bias is traded in practice. Overall, our findings suggest that limits to speculation are unlikely to provide a (stand-alone) explanation for the persistence of the forward bias.     

Long term risk sharing contracts as an approach to establish public–private partnerships for investment into next generation access networks

This paper develops an investment/pricing model for the deployment of basic broadband networks which, along with other applications, is applicable to public–private partnership projects. In particular, a new investment model is suggested to be used for finance deployment over a longer term by enabling both private and public investors to participate in the roll-out of next generation access (NGA) infrastructure. This so-called “long-term risk sharing concept” has several notable benefits compared with the traditional regulatory approach. Above all, the model enables both private operators and public authorities to share the risk of investing in NGA infrastructure. Thus the model offers a way for public authorities to achieve a timely and countrywide roll-out of NGA networks, including in areas where NGA investment would otherwise not occur.     

Subjective Performance Evaluations and Reciprocity in Principal–Agent Relations

We conduct a laboratory experiment with agents working on, and principals benefiting from, a real effort task in which the agents' performance can only be evaluated subjectively. Principals give subjective performance feedback to agents, and agents have an opportunity to sanction principals. In contrast to existing models of reciprocity, we find that agents tend to sanction whenever the feedback of principals is below their subjective self‐evaluations even if agents' pay‐offs are independent of it. In turn, principals provide more positive feedback (relative to their actual performance assessment of the agent) if this does not affect their pay‐off.     

Crossing Industry Borders: German Manufacturers as Services Exporters

Manufacturing firms increasingly engage in service trade activities. Microlevel data show that German manufacturers accounted for nearly 30 billion euros of service exports in 2005. I have found that particular construction, engineering and R&D services are exported. The machinery industries, motor vehicles and chemicals producers dominate the overall pattern. The types of services exported vary strongly across industries. Service exports of advertising, data processing, management and R&D services are found to likely support foreign affiliates of firms. However, these headquarter services are only infrequently observable. Much more important are construction and engineering services exported by machinery firms. These might represent installation and maintenance services complementing exported machinery. R&D services exports generally represent the transfer of knowledge and technology, which is found to be particularly relevant for motor vehicle producers. Beyond the support of foreign production of firms, R&D services might be relevant also in R&D cooperations of firms or when firms have partnerships with foreign suppliers or buyers of intermediate products.     

Outsourcing in the German Hospital Sector

Being under pressure both from demographic changes in most industrialised countries and increasingly scarce financial resources in social security, in the last decade the German hospital sector tried to find some relief in outsourcing of services not belonging to its core competences like IT services, catering and cleaning. However, not all the hopes connected with this strategy have been fulfilled. This paper takes stock of the current situation of outsourcing in the German hospital sector mainly by the size of the institution. It describes the patterns of outsourcing in the sector, looks at the reasons for outsourcing, and describes the experiences with it of the hospitals on the one hand and the service providers on the other. We conclude by expressing our expectations concerning the foreseeable future of outsourcing in the German hospital sector.     

Keeping Up With the Joneses: Analyzing the Effect of Income Inequality on Consumer Borrowing

Household debt relative to disposable income increased from 60% in 1980 to 104% at the end of 2003. ‘Buying on credit’ has become so popular that an increasing number of firms generate more profit from financing than from selling their products. In this paper, we show that rising income inequality has substantially contributed to increased consumer borrowing. Income inequality affects all components of total household debt, but the impact is strongest on non-revolving debt (installment loans), which is used to finance the purchase of consumer durables. We argue and provide evidence that the income inequality effect on consumer borrowing is a result of conspicuous consumption. Rising income inequality has forced households with smaller income gains to use debt to keep up their consumption level relative to households with larger income gains.JEL Classification: D12, G29, J31, M30     

The neglected need for strategic renewal in emerging markets: Lessons from Vietnam in transition

Research on strategy in emerging markets is based on overly static representations, paying insufficient attention to the impact of contextual change on the value of firms’ resources. This article examines how a sample of the most successful Vietnamese private companies during the first decade of their country's transition from central planning was affected by the shifting rules of the game in their business environment. I suggest the primary takeaway is that sustained superior performance in an environment with changing keys to success requires dedicated and ongoing strategic renewal. I also suggest the need for both scholars and managers to immerse themselves in emerging markets if they care to fully understand the granular ways in which these settings differ from more familiar advanced economies.     

Changing investment styles: style creep and style gaming in the hedge fund industry

Notwithstanding their common features, hedge funds remain an extremely diverse asset class. Information on fund styles is important for numerous purposes, such as portfolio construction, performance attribution and risk management. With fund self‐declaration being prone to (strategic) misclassification, return‐based taxonomies grouping funds along similarities in realized returns provide a useful alternative. We provide a consistent classification system of homogeneous groups of hedge funds based on self‐organizing maps. Whereas some fund categories such as managed futures are largely consistent in their self‐declared strategies, others, especially so‐called ‘equity hedge’ funds, display no or very limited return similarities. Furthermore, we also find evidence of fund managers performing undisclosed changes of their trading style over time. Those funds that misclassified themselves once are particularly likely to change their trading style again. Although style self‐declaration can, therefore, be quite misleading, our results indicate that hedge funds do not misdeclare their style strategically to improve their relative performance. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relative Liquidity,Fund Flows and Short‐Term Demand: Evidence from Exchange‐Traded Funds

We show that highly liquid Exchange‐Traded Funds (ETFs), especially those that are more liquid than their underlying basket of securities (i.e., positive relative liquidity), are particularly attractive to investors. Using three definitions of liquidity, we find that relative liquidity predicts net fund flows, as well as inflows and outflows positively and significantly. We further document a liquidity clientele among institutional investors: (i) relative liquidity is significantly more important for short‐ than for long‐term investors; and (ii) relative liquidity is inversely related to investors’ average holding duration in the ETFs. These two findings provide evidence that relative liquidity encourages short‐term demand.