Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico

Water utility planning efforts are becoming increasingly difficult throughout the world. Located in a semi-arid region, Ciudad Juárez, Mexico is a fast growing municipality that faces both physical infrastructure and water supply constraints. This paper examines monthly water consumption in Ciudad Juárez utilizing a linear transfer function procedure (LTF). Analysis is carried out for per customer usage and for the total number of municipal water system accounts. Models estimated for both series are subjected to a series of simulation benchmark tests. Findings suggest that water consumption in Ciudad Juárez reacts quickly to changes in economic and weather conditions. Out-of-sample simulation results are mixed. Per customer usage forecasts do not fare as well those for total customers relative to random walk benchmarks.Financial support for this research was provided by Southwest Center for Environmental Research Policy Grant W-04-03. Additional financial support was provided by El Paso Electric Company, Wells Fargo Bank of El Paso, and National Science Foundation Grant SES-0332001. Helpful comments and suggestions were provided by Cely Ronquillo, Brian Kelley, and Cesar Olivas. Econometric research assistance was provided by Marycruz De Leon and Irma Torres.     

INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND GLOBAL STABILITY1

Trade liberalisation has played a critical role in advancing peace and prosperity. Differences on agriculture have been the major impediment to a future multilateral trade round. The recent agreement on agriculture at the WTO meetings in Geneva may signal a breakthrough in that sector. This article analyses the benefits of recent trade agreements and examines the prospects for future ones. It also presents an alternative framework for advancing trade, the Global Free Trade Association.     

Proposal for a common currency among rich democracies

This paper proposes the creation of a common currency for the industrialized democracies, notably the United States, the European Union, and Japan. A common currency implies a common monetary policy; institutional arrangements for which are discussed. The rationale rests on the assumption that asymmetrical financial shocks will become more important than asymmetrical real shocks for these large, diversified economies, and that one of the growing sources of financial shocks will be changing expectations about exchange rate movements among national currencies. These financial shocks will in turn disturb real economies, such that flexible exchange rates among major currencies will increasingly become sources of shock more than shock absorbers. Such a common currency would also make it much easier for emerging markets to frame their monetary and exchange rate policies.     

Cumulative trauma and stress at work

Cumulative trauma is a form of workers' compensation claim in which an employee contends that a major illness or disability is the cumulative result of minor job stresses and strains extending over a period of years. The paper reviews the U.S. legal developments in this area and discusses their implications for both corporate policy and the developments of accounting for the human resource.     

The components of risk in new product development: Project New Prod

Although new product development is one of the riskiest activities of a modern corporation, relatively little account is taken of risk measurement in the R & D project selection literature. The existing consensus is that risk is measured by some combination of the total amounts at stake and the uncertainties of the situation. The paper describes a project aimed at more exactly identifying and defining the components of risk as perceived by a decision-maker within a firm undertaking new product ventures. The project is based on data from a study of the behaviour of 103 firms and 197 ventures.
The results show broadly that managers perceive risk to be highest when the product shows least synergy with the firm's current business. In contrast, the possibility of reducing uncertainty components of risk through information-seeking seems to be of little account in risk perception. The author concludes from this that decision-makers are much more influenced by factors that control the amounts at stake (in general, the less the synergy the greater the resources needed to back a new product entry) than by uncertainty as to the outcome. The latter must constitute an important element of risk in reality. Its neglect may be because managers find they can deal conceptually more easily with concrete matters like the amount at stake than with the intangibles of uncertainty reduction. This may explain why many firms fail to integrate information into their new product development process.     

The product life cycle trap

Many of America's most successful companies have gone through a life cycle similar to the product life cycle. They began as innovators, and then grew to be giants in their markets. But, as their products mature, they need new products to continue company growth. However, the organizational structure of an established company is no longer suited for innovation. The authors provide some insight into this cycle, and offer some solutions for big companies which need new products.     

Arithmetic versus geometric mean estimators: Setting discount rates for capital budgeting

This paper addresses an issue central to the estimation of discount rates for capital budgeting: should the geometric mean or arithmetic mean of past data be used when estimating the discount rate? the use of the arithmetic mean ignores estimation error and serial correlation in returns. Unbiased discount factors have been derived that correct for both these effects. In all cases, the corrected discount rates are closer to the arithmetic than the geometric mean.