Learning ahead of time: how evaluation of foresight may add to increased trust,organizational learning and future oriented policy and strategy

Evaluation of futures research (foresight) consists of three elements: quality, success, and impact of a study. Futures research ought to be methodologically and professionally sound, should to a certain extent be accurate, and should have a degree of impact on strategic decision making and policy-making. However, in the case of futures studies, the one does not automatically lead to the other. Quality of method does not ensure success, just as quality and success do not guarantee impact. This article explores the new paths for understanding evaluating of futures studies that are provided by the various articles in this special issue and sets out an agenda for next steps with regard to evaluation of futures research. The more structural and systematic evaluation can result in an increased level of trust in futures research, which may in turn lead to more future oriented strategy, policy and decision making. Therefore, evaluation should be seen as more than a burden of accountability – albeit important as accountability is – but as an investment in the credibility and impact of the profession. It may set in motion a cycle of mutual learning that will not only improve the capacity of futures-researchers but will also enhance the capacity and likeliness of decision-makers to apply insight from futures research.     

Life satisfaction and self-employment in different types of occupations

In this research, we investigate whether a positive relationship between life satisfaction and self-employment (versus paid employment) exists while simultaneously considering two occupational dimensions: white-collar versus blue-collar work and high-skilled versus low-skilled work. Using Eurobarometer data for a large number of European countries (2008–2012), our findings confirm that self-employed workers are more satisfied with their lives than paid employees are. A life satisfaction premium is also found when the self-employed and paid employees are compared within similar occupations in terms of collar type and skill level. Finally, self-employment can help to overcome low life satisfaction scores associated with blue-collar and low-skilled work.     

An Ethnographic Perspective on Urban Planning in Brazil: Temporality,Diversity and Critical Urban Theory

This article provides an ethnographic perspective on urban planning by presenting the creative practices of marginalized slum residents in Recife, Northeast Brazil, who are affected by planners’ decisions. It argues that such a perspective contributes to current critical urban theory in three ways. First, while many studies of urban planning follow the temporality of the timeframe of a particular project (‘project time’), this analysis emphasizes the timeframe of the lives of the affected residents (‘people's time’). Second, it attends to diversity, taking account of the variety of affected residents and the diverse consequences of urban planning on their lives. Third, it shows how urban interventions — similar to marriage, divorce, the birth of children and the death of loved ones — are high-impact life events for the urban poor. Finally, the article assesses the engagement between ethnography and critical urban theory and argues in favour of ‘grounding’ the latter better in the analysis of actual practices and experiences.     

International investment positions revisited: Investor heterogeneity and individual security characteristics

This paper contributes to the literature by empirically documenting the importance of investor heterogeneity and security level characteristics for international investment positions. We estimate a standard gravity model to explain holdings in individual bonds and stocks for euro area investors covering 2013Q4–2018Q4. First, our results confirm the importance of market size and distance, but there are significant differences between banks, insurance companies and pension funds, investment funds, households and other investors. Second, we show the statistical significance and economic relevance of security characteristics such as currency, bond maturity and dividend yield. Third, the results are robust to including domestic holdings.     

Integrating futures studies with organizational development: Design options for the scenario project ‘RWS2020’

Most futures studies are not used by managers and strategists and do not influence the direction of organizational development. Although the contribution of future studies to management is in theory all but self-evident, the practice in organizations is that futures knowledge is hardly used, or at most, is used selectively and strategically (‘politically’). This article acknowledges that gap and claims that it is a fundamental divide between to very different domains. However, out of that re-conceptualization of the relation between futures studies and management, a new direction for an integrated praxis arises. In an empirical case study, we show that by means of an intelligent process-design and professional balancing of several key-dilemmas, futures studies can be connected to management processes and organizational development. The future can be brought back into the everyday practice of management. However, in order to do so, the futures field needs to set aside some of its methodological claims and move towards the field of strategic management. Not because futurists need to abandon their specific knowledge and expertise, but to make the most of it.     

The relationship between product diversity, usage of advanced manufacturing technologies and activity-based costing adoption

This paper examines the associations between product diversity, usage of advanced manufacturing technologies (AMT) and activity-based costing (ABC) adoption. Theory strongly suggests that product diversity is a major determinant of the demand for ABC systems. To date, the results of empirical research on the relationship between product diversity and ABC adoption have generally been inconclusive, however, suggesting that there either may be no strong relationship, or that methodological issues may have prevented researchers from consistently finding it. Using a dataset of survey responses from 191 Dutch, medium-sized manufacturing firms, this paper re-examines the relationship between product diversity and ABC adoption. Improving upon the measurement of product diversity and distinguishing between ABC adoption and use, it examines whether the relationship is curvilinear (inverted U-shaped) and/or moderated by usage of AMT. The paper contributes to the literature by showing that, consistent with the underlying theory, product diversity, on average, is positively related to both ABC adoption and ABC use, but also that these relationships are indeed inverted U-shaped and that the relationship with ABC use is negatively moderated by usage of AMT.     

Self-Governance As a Mode of Societal Governance

This article explores the concept of self-governance. Self-governance refers to the capacity of social entities to govern themselves autonomously and, as such, is an important mode of societal governance in modern society. However, the nature of'self-governance'and its actual and potential contribution to societal governance in modern society are not (yet) fully understood. Therefore, two perspectives on self-governance as a mode of societal governance are dis-cussed: a system-oriented perspective thatfocuses on the operational closure of systems; and an actor-oriented perspective that stresses the situational dependency of the actual possibilities for making use of self-governance. A third, interactional, approach is added that stresses the need to understand societal interactions in their full complexity, dynamics and diversity, in which self-governing capacities are tapped.     

The Myth of Formality in the Global North: Informality‐as‐Innovation in Dutch Governance

Why has urban informality in the global North received so little attention? We suggest that this neglect can be explained in part by the tendency of scholarship to reproduce the myth of Northern formality: the widely held belief that informality occurs only in corrupt and clientelist ‘developing countries’. This myth has allowed activities and connections that would generally be framed as clientelist or corrupt in the global South to be rebranded as policy innovation in Western Europe and North America. In this brief paper, we challenge the myth of Northern formality by focusing on two empirical cases of informality in Dutch governance that demonstrate how the state frames the toleration and deliberate use of informality as policy innovations. Specifically, we focus on strategic, uncodified and non‐transparent deviation from legal procedure in order to achieve compliance and/or effectiveness. Relying on ethnographic methods and secondary sources, we discuss firstly the governance of Amsterdam's red light district and secondly participatory infrastructure projects in the surrounding province of North Holland. The first case highlights the strategic non‐enforcement or non‐application of laws, while the second case points to the use of personalized relationships and non‐transparency in participatory governance.     

Modeling CLV: A test of competing models in the insurance industry

Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) is one of the key metrics in marketing and is considered an important segmentation base. This paper studies the capabilities of a range of models to predict CLV in the insurance industry. The simplest models can be constructed at the customer relationship level, i.e. aggregated across all services. The more complex models focus on the individual services, paying explicit attention to cross buying, but also retention. The models build on a plethora of approaches used in the existing literature and include a status quo model, a Tobit II model, univariate and multivariate choice models, and duration models. For all models, CLV for each customer is computed for a four-year time horizon. We find that the simple models perform well. The more complex models are expected to better capture the richness of relationship development. Surprisingly, this does not lead to substantially better CLV predictions.