Public Saving and Policy Coordination in Aging Economies

In the coming decades, the share of people of working age will fall significantly in most developed countries. According to optimal taxation theory, public debts should be reduced before the baby‐boom generation retires. I find that if debts are instead maintained at current levels, welfare may be reduced substantially in countries with a large public sector and/or a large demographic change. Since population aging will be less dramatic in the United States than in Europe and Japan, capital will move from Europe and Japan to the United States. These capital movements will facilitate the US demographic transition but aggravate the transition in most European countries.     

Asymmetric Regulation of Access and Price Discrimination in Telecommunications*

Suppose that a strong and a weak operator compete in a telecommunications market. To terminate a call operators need access to the competitor’s network if the call is off-net. Operators set two-part tariffs and price-discriminate according to termination of a call. Suppose as a benchmark that access prices are regulated at costs. I show that the weak operator’s profit and consumer welfare increase if the regulator sets a higher price to access the weak operator’s network. However, total surplus decreases even locally. *I received helpful comments from Mark Armstrong, Toker Doganoglu, Tommaso Valletti, Julian Wright, and, in particular, two referees and the editor Michael Crew. I gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (Heisenberg Fellowship).     

QUANTIFYING ABSOLUTE POVERTY IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD

We estimate that in 1985 about one in five persons in the developing world lived in poverty, judged by the standards of the poorest countries. This rises to one in three at a common, more generous, poverty line. The aggregate consumption short-fall of the poorest fifth is about one half of one percent of world consumption, while that of the poorest third is a further one percent. The shape of the distribution of consumption suggests that aggregate poverty would fall fairly rapidly if moderate growth in average consumption levels can be sustained, and the poor share at least proportionally in that growth. However, it would take only small adverse shifts in the world distribution of consumption to eliminate the gains to the poor from growth.     

State fiscal institutions and empty-nest migration: Are Tiebout voters hobbled?

Using the Health and Retirement Study and a national panel of local fiscal data, we test a lifecycle model of Tiebout sorting. On average, cross-state, empty-nest movers—presumed to be out of fiscal equilibrium—experience large fiscal gains in the form of reduced exposure to local school spending and property taxes, while local empty-nest movers experience no fiscal adjustment. We find evidence that within-state fiscal adjustment is constrained by state institutions that limit local discretion. Empty-nest households moving within states with school finance equalization do not engage in Tiebout-consistent fiscal adjustment, while those moving within states lacking school finance equalization adjust substantially.     

A sequential approach to regional integration: The European Union and Central and Eastern Europe

This paper develops a theory of optimal sequencing of regional integration and applies it to the specific question of Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) and the EU. We show that the timing of transition and integration has implications for the long-term trade structure of Europe. In this model the interest to integrate the CEECs comes from harmonization of policies to attract industries. Without integration, European countries will try to inefficiently protect their industries. Because of the transfers implied by the CAP and the Structural Policies, the EU delays enlargement until the CEECs have sufficiently converged. CEECs might at this point prefer to stay outside the EU and attract industries by offering them more generous protection than the EU. Such timing may be inefficient ex ante for all countries because it may prevent full European integration in the long run, inducing firms to relocate outside of the EU and governments in the EU and the CEECs to inefficiently protect industry. During the transition, all countries benefit from regional integration among the CEECs.     

Financing development in less developed countries

Defining development and measuring growth is not an easy task. Countries without adequate internal capital seek financial aid from external sources. Private, direct investment from foreign sources has been inadequate for financing growth. Debt and development assistance in the form of grants has been necessary for financing less developed country growth. Foreign debt and foreign equity have contributed to growth and development unequally. This paper examines the relationship between development and financing in 15 less developed countries.     

Empirical evidence on the global minimum tax: what is a critical mass and how large is the substance-based income exclusion?

This paper presents empirical evidence on the proposed global minimum tax (GMT) of the OECD's Pillar 2. First, it addresses how many, and which, countries or country groups can be seen as constituting a ‘critical mass’ for its successful implementation; given such a critical mass, remaining jurisdictions worldwide will have an incentive to implement the GMT as well. Second, it assesses the generosity of the substance-based income exclusion (SBIE), which is informative for the revenue collected under the GMT.     

Sequential decisions under uncertainty and the maximum theorem

For sequential decision problems in which the decision-maker observes a process of state variables and chooses an adapted process of action variables, the paper defines a topology on the space of measures of processes of state variables which ensures the applicability of Berge's maximum theorem to the decision-maker's optimal behavior. The topology controls for the information available to the decision-maker at each decision date. The paper also discusses the implications of the analysis for the dynamic-programming approach to sequential decision-making under uncertainty, and for equilibrium existence proof strategies in sequential-market models and games.     

Towards a General Managerial Framework for Performance Measurement: A Comprehensive Highway Maintenance Application

This paper describes the application of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to a highway maintenance setting, using measures of inputs, outputs and outcomes reported by New Zealand local authorities. A general framework of performance measurement is developed and illustrated through application to the highway setting. The framework encompasses a performance pyramid embodying multiple-perspectives of the organisation with a structure of measures linking critical success factors to process drivers, methods of data analysis and influencing factors such as professional culture. Distinctions between measures of outcome, output and input enable finer partitioning of analyses into managerial notions of efficiency, effectiveness and economy. The impact of environmental factors on efficiency is explored through two approaches suggested in the literature.