Defending Gibrat’s Law as a long-run regularity

According to Gibrat’s Law of Proportionate Effect, the growth rate of a given firm is independent of its size at the beginning of the period examined. While earlier studies tended to confirm the Law, more recent research generally rejects it. This article reconciles these two streams of literature, taking into account the role of market selection and learning in reshaping a given population of firms through time. Consistently with previous studies, we find that Gibrat’s Law has to be rejected ex ante, since smaller firms tend to grow faster than their larger counterparts. However, a significant convergence toward Gibrat-like behavior can be detected ex post. This finding is an indication that market selection “cleans” the original population of firms, so that the resulting industrial “core” does not depart from a Gibrat-like pattern of growth. From a theoretical point of view, this result is consistent with those models based on passive and active learning, and can be seen as a defense of the validity of the Law in the long-run.

Firm export dynamics and the geography of trade

Two recent trends in international economics have been an increased focus on the geography of trade (e.g. what factors determine where a country exports) and the emergence of new theoretical and empirical work examining exporting activity at the firm-level. However, data limitations have prevented much progress in combining these two areas, because very few countries provide firm-level data breaking down firm exports by their destination. This paper uses a unique survey of Irish exporting firms with information on over fifty destinations for a five-year period to fill some of the gaps in this empirical literature. In particular we investigate how well the predications of a model of exporting with firm heterogeneity fits with the patterns of this detailed data source. Amongst our findings are that firm productivity differences are a factor in explaining the number of export markets a firm has but the prediction of a hierarchy of markets could only be weakly upheld by the data. Firm involvement in individual export markets is found to be much more dynamic than export status. Entry and exit to markets is shown to be a quantifiably important component of overall export flows, with this factor becoming more important for less popular markets. The paper also shows how the patterns of entry and exit into export markets combine to determine the overall firm-level distribution of number of markets entered.     

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Is lack of funds the main obstacle to growth? ebrd's experience with small- and medium-sized businesses in central and eastern europe

Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) potentially constitute the most dynamic firms in an emerging economy. They are the ones most likely to move into areas of comparative advantage and high value added, though they often face economic, institutional, and legal obstacles. Obstacles include limited access to working capital and long-term credit, legal and regulatory restrictions, inadequate infrastructure, high transaction costs, and limited managerial and technical expertise. Despite the presence of multiple and often interrelated constraints, however, the widespread belief, on which policies to support SMEs are based, is that the lack of finance constitutes the main obstacle to the growth of SMEs.Enterprise survey work is the tool generally used to deepen our understanding of constraints affecting SMEs formation and growth. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is no exception in this respect: during its early years it drew substantially on a set of enterprise surveys conducted by the World Bank between 1991 and 1993 in Hungary, the Czech and Slovak Federal Republic (CSFR), Poland, and Russia investigating the obstacles faced by SMEs. As the volume and geographical spread of its operations increased, the EBRD felt the need to design and run its own surveys, effectively addressing specific issues encountered in the context of its increasing lending and investment activity in central and eastern Europe (CEE). The findings of this analysis confirmed the belief that credit constraints constitute one of the main obstacles to growth of SMEs and encouraged the EBRD to tailor its financing instruments to the stage of transition of the country in question and the ability of the local financial system to assume key responsibilities.This paper analyzes the way in which the EBRD strives to correct this capital market failure in the region in which it operates. The fundamental principles on which EBRD policy is based are: a preference for reaching the SMEs via local financial intermediaries, a commercial approach to the provision of finance, and finally a focus on development of the local financial system as a whole. It is still too early to draw conclusions on EBRD activity in the field of SMEs financing based on other types of indicators than data on volume of signed commitments. A large part of the loans is still in the grace period, therefore investments are in an early phase and operation performance evaluation reports on this type of operations are still too few. Aggregate data on volume of EBRD financing through financial intermediaries paint an encouraging picture. A 250% increase in the volume of such operations between 1994 and 1997, a nine-fold increase in the number of subprojects between 1995 and 1997, and an ever-widening geographical spread of activities and decreasing size of subprojects indicate that the experience of the EBRD in financing through financial intermediaries is on the whole positive. Financing provided to intermediaries is not necessarily always intended, nor guaranteed to reach SMEs. It is, however, guaranteed to create the appropriate financing channels which are necessary to ease the SMEs' liquidity constraint.This paper discusses the shortcomings of the financial system in the CEE countries. It outlines the EBRD policy to support SMEs and the various instruments employed so far and presents selected case studies to throw light on how good project design can help overcome difficult environments and lower the perception of risk connected to indigenous SMEs. A summary of the findings of the survey work conducted by the EBRD in the region is also presented.     

Models and optimal designs for conjoint choice experiments including a no-choice option

In a classical conjoint choice experiment, respondents choose one profile from each choice set that has to be evaluated. However, in real life, the respondent does not always make a choice: often he/she does not prefer any of the options offered. Therefore, including a no-choice option in a choice set makes a conjoint choice experiment more realistic. In the literature, three different models are used to analyze the results of a conjoint choice experiment with a no-choice option: the no-choice multinomial logit model, the extended no-choice multinomial logit model, and the nested no-choice multinomial logit model. We develop optimal designs for the two most appealing of these models using the D-optimality criterion and the modified Fedorov algorithm and compare these optimal designs with a reference design, which is constructed while ignoring the no-choice option, in terms of estimation and prediction accuracy. We conclude that taking into account the no-choice option when designing a no-choice experiment only has a marginal effect on the estimation and prediction accuracy as long as the model used for estimation matches the data-generating model.     

Machine Learning and Expert Judgement: Analyzing Emerging Topics in Accounting and Finance Research in the Asia–Pacific

In this paper, we focus on the question to what extent machine learning (ML) tools can be used to support systematic literature reviews. We apply a ML approach for topic detection to analyze emerging topics in the literature—our context is accounting and finance research in the Asia–Pacific region. To evaluate the robustness of the approach, we compare findings from the automated ML approach with the results from a manual analysis of the literature. The automated approach uses a keyword algorithm detection mechanism whereby the manual analysis uses common techniques for qualitative data analysis, that is, triangulation between researchers (expert judgement). From our paper, we conclude that both methods have strengths and weaknesses. The automated analysis works well for large corpora of text and provides a very standardized and non-biased way of analyzing the literature. However, the human researcher is potentially better equipped to evaluate current issues and future trends in the literature. Overall, the best results might be achieved when a variety of tools are used together.     

Networks of foreign affiliates: Evidence from Japanese micro-data

The paper provides evidence of the investment patterns of Japanese multinational enterprises (MNEs) across countries and industries and analyses the main drivers of their location strategies, using detailed micro-data on Japanese parents and their affiliates including the final destination of affiliate sales. The breakdown of affiliate sales by destination market reveals that Japanese MNEs establish services affiliates primarily to maximise proximity to local customers, while foreign affiliates in manufacturing sectors tend to engage more widely with third countries. Yet, some economies emerge as strategic gateways to other destinations in their region. The empirical analysis delves into the drivers of host country attractiveness for FDI seeking new markets, production efficiency and to act as regional or global platforms. Important factors shaping Japanese FDI decisions include trade and investment policies in goods and services, deep FTAs, as well as streamlined customs procedures. Furthermore, well-calibrated rules for digital commerce and investments in digital infrastructure and innovation contribute to attracting MNEs. Overall, the paper stresses the factors behind better integration into global production networks and the policy priorities to attract various types of FDI inflows.     

The ‘Duce hometown effect’ on local industrial development: The case of Forlì

Abstract

The history of fascist intervention and rescue in support of Italian banks and firms (either through nationalisation or direct aid) in the inter-war years is well known. The case of Forlì adds an important piece of information to the broad literature on state-sponsored development. Benito Mussolini was born in Predappio, a small village in the Apennines in the province of Forlì. And Forlì was meant to become ‘la città del Duce’ (‘the Duce’s hometown’). The case of Forlì offers an original perspective: entrepreneurs who chose Mussolini’s hometown to obtain special concessions, a novel element in the crowded panorama of special relationships between government and industry in Italy. But on the other hand, this article will also underline the unsuitability of big business to local economic characteristics (and post-war challenges) and the return to a traditional growth path centred around the small-firm model specialising in traditional sectors and family-owned, centralised management. State-sponsored business failed and provided no stimulus to local growth: any talk of ‘industrial continuity’ in Forlì requires us to acknowledge that it is based on the steady presence and continuous regeneration of locally grown, small family businesses.     

Career success schemas and their contextual embeddedness: A comparative configurational perspective

We introduce career success schemas as critical for understanding how people in different contexts perceive and understand career success. Using a comparative configurational approach, we show, in a study of 13 countries, that two structural characteristics of career success schemas—complexity and convergence—differ across country contexts and are embedded in specific configurations of institutional factors. Adopting complexity and convergence as primary dimensions, we propose a taxonomy of career success schemas at the country level. Based on this taxonomy, we contribute to the understanding of subjective career success across countries, discuss the importance of schemas for organisational career systems in multinational enterprises, and propose specific guidelines for future comparative careers research.     

Do data policy restrictions inhibit trade in services?

Review of World Economics - This paper examines whether restrictive data policies are related to trade in services. The authors have collected comparable information on a variety of policy measures...