Evaluating Expert Systems in a Financial Domain: A Study Demonstrating Issues in Case Selection,Validation Standards and Evaluator Bias

This article describes and generalizes a validation study of four commercially available personal financial planning expert systems and the rationale for the research methodology used. Our evaluation of these systems adds to the understanding of verification and validation issues related to case selection, validation standards and evaluator bias. The article describes the systems, their domain and the empirical method—field tests using hypothetical cases—and relates that method to the literature. Comparing same-task systems combines multiple system perspectives and multiple models. Our methodology did efficiently and effectively identify conflicting terminology, omissions and system weaknesses but was inadequate for comparing the complex plan recommendations. The results re-emphasize the importance of continual knowledge base updating, formal system testing and the need for external evaluation. The results also show the value of comparing multiple, same-task systems.     

Investigation of the Greek – Turkish Military Spending Relation

In this paper, the relation between the Greek and Turkish military spending is investigated, examining first the identification of its exact statistical form, and second, a diachronically constant ratio between the two magnitudes. Using annual nominal data over the period from 1949 to 2008, the stationarity of the series is tested by performing a sequential Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and a Kwiatkowski?CPhillips?CSchmidt?CShin (KPSS) unit root test. Both the long?Crun equilibrium relation among the series of the Greek and Turkish military spending and their diachronically constant ratio are estimated following a Johansen cointegration analysis.     

Challenges to elderly safety in Safe Community movements in Japan

In Japan, with the longest life expectancy in the world over the last two decades, a great emphasis has been placed on the safety of the elderly, which has in turn influenced their well-being. Meantime, the concept of Safe Community (SC) has drawn more attention as one of the potential measures to sustain and improve the health conditions of the elderly. In hope of improving the effectiveness and efficiency of current efforts for elderly safety, the SC model is expected to provide features with which communities can make the better use of current limited resources. This article examines how the SC model makes a difference in these efforts by utilising existing programmes and how elderly safety can be promoted at the community level. Six communities working safety promotion based on the SC model were selected for the study. Although there are limitations to the information due to the insufficient experience in SC in Japan, it was found that two features make SC significant in promoting safety: (1) systematic evidence-based plan-do-check-action processes and (2) a framework of cross-sectoral collaboration. However, to examine and identify the effectiveness of SC on elderly health, further observation is required to develop strategies while accumulating longitudinal data.     

Economics at the FTC: Drug and PBM Mergers and Drip Pricing

Economists at the Federal Trade Commission pursue the agency??s competition and consumer protection missions. In this year??s essay, in antitrust, we discuss two recent mergers that involved Rx drugs: First, we describe key elements of the inquiry into the Express Scripts/Medco transaction in the pharmacy benefit management industry. Next, we analyze a merger that involved drugs that are used to treat patent ductus arteriosus: a condition that affects premature babies. On the consumer protection side, we discuss a pricing strategy??drip pricing??that involves the release of price information about a multi-part product over time as the consumer goes through the purchase process.     

Leadership run amok. The destructive potential of overachievers

The desire to achieve is a major source of strength in business, and it is on the rise. The authors' consulting firm has seen a steady increase in the extent to which achievement motivates managers. There's a dark side to the trend, however. By relentlessly focusing on tasks and goals, an executive or company can damage performance. Overachievers tend to command and coerce, stifling subordinates. Psychologist David McClelland identified three drivers of behavior: achievement, meeting a standard of excellence; affiliation, maintaining close relationships; and power, having an impact on others. He said the power motive comes in two forms: personalized, in which the leader draws strength from controlling people, and socialized, where the leader derives strength from empowering people. Studies show that great charismatic leaders are highly motivated by socialized power. To look at how motives and leadership style affect a group's work climate and performance, the authors studied 21 senior managers at IBM.The leaders who created high-performing and energizing climates got more lasting results by using a broad range of styles, choosing different ones for different circumstances. Rather than order people around, they provided vision, sought buy-in and commitment, and coached. If you're an overachiever seeking to broaden your range, you can study your actions and ask your team, peers, and manager to give you honest feedback. You can adopt specific new behaviors, such as engaging your team in a discussion of how to achieve goals, rather than issuing a set of directives. The company as a whole can play a part, too: Organizations must learn when to draw on the achievement drive and when to rein it in.     

The Effect of SFAS No. 131 on the Cross-segment Variability of Profits Reported by Multiple Segment Firms

Our study assesses whether SFAS No. 131 improved disclosure about the diversity of multiple segment firms’ operations. We find a post-SFAS No. 131 increase in cross-segment variability of segment profits, an increase in the association between reported and inherent cross-segment variability, and an increase in association between reported variability and capital market incentives to disclose. We interpret the results as evidence that SFAS No. 131 increased the transparency of segment profitability disclosures, and as indicating SFAS No. 131 allowed firms depending more on external financing to disclose more about differences in segment profitability.

Do firms understate stock option-based compensation expense disclosed under SFAS 123?

Focusing on the four key option pricing model inputs—expected option life, expected stock price volatility, expected dividend yield, and the risk-free interest rate for the expected life of the option—this study finds that firms understate option value estimates and, thus, stock-based compensation expense disclosed under SFAS 123. As predicted based on incentives and opportunities for management to understate SFAS 123 expense, the understatement of option value estimates is increasing in proxies for the magnitude of the expense, is greater for firms with weaker corporate governance, and, to a lesser extent, is increasing in the excessiveness of executive pay. The findings are strongest for the expected option life and expected stock price volatility input assumptions, consistent with firms’ greater latitude in determining these inputs. We find weaker evidence of understatement associated with the expected dividend yield assumption, and none for the interest rate assumption, consistent with these inputs being less amenable to discretion. Taken together, our findings raise some concern that the exercise of management discretion adversely affects the overall reliability of SFAS 123 expense.

Organizational characteristics and their effect on health

There is a complex relationship between work, employee health, and successful business results. At the individual level, multiple factors including physical, psychological, and social aspects of the work environment affect workers' health and well-being. At the organizational level, the consequences of unhealthy work environments may be traced to a decrease in the quality of service and products, and a loss in productivity. A brief overview of the contemporary literature on workplace stressors is presented to help identify future research directions.