The problems of development of a region under the conditions of the global crisis (Using the Vologda Region as an example)

The paper analyzes the effect of the crisis on the economy and social sphere of a region and substantiates the essence of measures whose implementation will enable the escape from the crisis state to be accelerated.     

Structural reform,intra-regional trade,and medium-term growth prospects of East Asia and the Pacific—Perspectives from a new multi-region model

This paper analyses the potential benefits from reforms aimed at promoting domestic demand in the region, as well as the effects of slower growth in the US and the G3 (US, euro area, and Japan) on the members of the Executives’ Meeting of East Asian-Pacific Central Bank (EMEAP). The analysis is based on simulation scenarios using an expanded version of the IMF Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal (GIMF) model which is particularly useful for conducting medium-term policy analysis, as it incorporates rich layers of intra-regional trade, production, and demand allowing the transmission mechanism of structural reforms and external shocks to be fully articulated. The simulation results show that reforms to rebalance the pattern of demand in regional economies (such as Mainland China) more towards domestic demand could entail non-negligible benefits for the EMEAP. These benefits could be even larger for those economies that more flexibly adjust to the shift in China's trade pattern. The simulation results also demonstrate that structural reforms in EMEAP economies will allow them to reduce vulnerabilities to economic downturns in major economies.     

The evaluation of the long-term economic development of the Irkutsk region in the system of the all-Russian forecasting

The long-term forecasting of the development of the Irkutsk region by economic sectors is considered. The evaluations of the structural changes and the interregional relationships by the variants of the potential trends of development of the economy of Siberia and Russia in a whole are presented. The forecast is made by the production output data, which are the basis of the target growth of the final consumption.     

Measuring the dynamics of APEC output connectedness

We examine the dynamics of output connectedness of Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) economies using time‐varying, region‐specific, generalised connectedness measures. We find that the connectedness of APEC economies with the rest of the world is quite substantial, with the 2008–09 Global Financial Crisis increasing the connectedness measures above their precrisis levels. The USA, China, and Korea are shown to be systemically important and to dominate APEC’s real activities, while outside the APEC region the roles of India and the UK are also non‐negligible. These results suggest that the majority of APEC economies are considerably open to output shocks from the dominant economies such that policymakers in APEC must be continuously conscious of headwinds originating from these sources.     

On Measurement of Economic Growth

This article continues the discussion raised in the pages of the journal on the methodological problems of justifying economic policy [1]. Problems of measuring the inflationary component of economic growth and in product competitiveness in the internal market and external markets are considered. A procedure to measure economic growth, taking into account the balance of interests of the current and future generations, is proposed.     

Nominal shocks and the current account: A structural VAR analysis of 14 OECD countries

This paper provides some empirical evidence on one of the most controversial theoretical implications of the new open economy literature, which refers to the role of the current account in the international monetary transmission mechanism. In order to throw some light on this issue, two structural VAR models are estimated separately for 14 industrialized countries. The main empirical results highlight the importance of the role of nominal disturbances for current account fluctuations. Additionally, it is found that expansionary nominal shocks generate temporary current account surpluses, whose size is positively correlated with the openness of the individual countries. JEL no. C32, E40, F41, F42     

Inter-Satisfaction between Website and Automated Call Distribution (ACD) Systems

Websites and an Automated Call Distribution (ACD) system in a call center are both considered important customer relationship technologies. Integrating concepts from information systems quality and trust transference theory, this paper introduces the concept of inter-satisfaction: the extent to which customer satisfaction with a website leads to satisfaction with an ACD and vice versa. It is hypothesized that dissatisfaction with either the website or the ACD influences potential brand-switching behaviors. A model, largely drawing upon concepts of user satisfaction as developed in information system research, is presented. The model is then tested using data from passengers using Low Cost Carriers (LCCs) in South Korea, specifically 366 passengers at the Jeju International Airport, who experienced both their airlines’ website and call center. A structural equation modeling analysis demonstrates that satisfaction with the website transfers to satisfaction with the ACD system, but not vice versa, and that only dissatisfaction with the website creates a brand-switching intention.     

Linear predictability vs. bull and bear market models in strategic asset allocation decisions: evidence from UK data

Most papers in the portfolio choice literature have examined linear predictability frameworks based on the idea that simple but flexible Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models can be expanded to produce portfolio allocations that hedge against the bull and bear dynamics typical of financial markets through careful selection of predictor variables that capture business cycles and market sentiment. Yet, a distinct literature exists that shows that non-linear econometric frameworks, such as Markov switching, are also natural tools to compute optimal portfolios arising from the existence of good and bad market states. This paper examines whether and how simple VARs can produce portfolio rules similar to those obtained under a simple Markov switching, by studying the effects of expanding both the order of the VAR and the number/selection of predictor variables included. In a typical stock-bond strategic asset allocation problem for UK data, we compute the out-of-sample certainty equivalent returns for a wide range of VARs and compare these measures of performance with those of non-linear models. We conclude that most VARs cannot produce portfolio rules, hedging demands or (net of transaction costs) out-of-sample performances that approximate those obtained from simple non-linear frameworks.     

Asset pricing and the role of macroeconomic volatility

Standard Real Business Cycle (RBC) models are well known to generate counter-factual asset pricing implications. This study provides a simple extension to the prior literature by studying an economy that follows a regime-switching process in conjunction with Epstein–Zin preferences for consumers. We provide a detailed theoretical and numerical analysis of the model’s predictions. We also show that a reasonable parameterization of our model conveys financial figures in line with US postwar data. Furthermore, we provide evidence in support of modeling a regime-dependent macroeconomic risk.