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81.
The notion that prices impound a wide array of information, including market expectations, has led to earnings forecast models conditioned on prices. Yet, presumably, analysts' forecasts capture both public information and certain private information not previously impounded in prices. Accordingly, price-based models are seemingly an inefficient, and less effective, source of expecta-tions. This article investigates this hypothesis using financial analysts', price-based, and naive forecasts. Results indicate that analysts' forecasts (1) are at least as accurate as price-based and naive models, and (2) yield better expectations for market tests relating returns and earnings. These inferences are robust across different information environments. The evidence suggests that analysts either possess private information or are more effective information processors, or both. 相似文献
82.
Cost of equity estimates are compared for three pricing models: the traditional local CAPM, the single (market) factor global CAPM, and the two‐factor global CAPM, with both market and currency index factors. For 2989 US stocks, the average difference in the cost of equity estimates is about 48 basis points between the local CAPM and the single‐factor global CAPM, and is about 61 basis points between the two global models. For 70 developed‐market ADRs, the corresponding average differences are 76 and 47 basis points, respectively. For 48 emerging‐market ADRs, the corresponding average differences are 57 and 70 basis points. 相似文献
83.
An aggregate analysis of supply response in the paddy (rice) sector of Sri Lanka during 1952-87 is conducted to identify the impact of pricing policy, irrigation programmes, institutional credit and concessional sales on area, yield and overall supply. The focus of the estimation procedure is the selection of an appropriate functional form for regressions and on the price variable that best represents the price to which producers respond in making area and yield decisions. In the case of both area and yield, the econometric criteria favour the acceptance of log-linear equations with the ratio of the guaranteed price of paddy to fertiliser price. On the basis of overall supply elasticity estimates, it is concluded that while pricing policy, irrigation programmes and institutional credit provide incentives to the expansion of paddy production, concessional sales of rice act as a disincentive. 相似文献
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87.
Prior to making important decisions, marketing managers go through an evaluation process in which available alternatives are
compared. Yet, no systematic discussion of the evaluation process exists in the marketing literature. This article reviews
the marketing and behavioral decision theory literature in order to identify factors that may cause errors in the two fundamental
elements of the evaluation process—the estimation of probabilities and the determination of the value of outcomes. Propositions
are developed that specify circumstances in which marketing management decisions may be influenced by judgmental biases, and
procedures are identified for debiasing such judgments. 相似文献
88.
Up in the Air: GTE's Experience in the MTA Auction for Personal Communication Services Licenses 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
David J. Salant 《Journal of Economics & Management Strategy》1997,6(3):549-572
In late 1994, GTE, one of the largest telecommunications firms in the world, entered an auction for the rights to provide personal communications services (PCS) using the electromagnetic spectrum. The administering agency, the Federal Communications Commission, adopted a novel multiple-round format for the PCS auction. The format presented GTE with a complex bidding problem. This article describes how the GTE bidding team answered the following question: Given its budget and valuations and the information available about rival bidders, how should GTE bid to achieve the best attainable outcome? 相似文献
89.
Blinder (1998) argues that more open public disclosure of central bank policies may enhance the efficiency of markets. We
examine this claim by studying whether the Federal Reserve System's 1994 policy shift toward more open disclosure improved
or worsened the predictability of financial markets. Employing methods analogous to Campbell and Shiller (1991), we find that
since 1994, the forecasting error has decreased for interest rates on U.S. bonds of most maturity lengths, and that the expectations
hypothesis has performed better at the low end of the yield curve. These findings are inconsistent with the view that increased
central bank transparency will decrease the efficiency of financial markets.
The authors would like to thank participants of the 2001 Midwest Macroeconomics Conference and 2001 Missouri Economics Conference
for their helpful comments and suggestions. All errors are, of course, the author's. 相似文献
90.
Productivity Trends in Europe: Implications for Real Exchange Rates, Real Interest Rates, and Inflation 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Matthew Canzoneri Robert Cumby Behzad Diba & Gwen Eudey 《Review of International Economics》2002,10(3):497-516
The paper examines a long–run (neoclassical) framework in which differences in productivity growth across sectors and countries lead to inflation differentials. In a currency union, these inflation differentials imply cross–country differentials in real interest rates. The authors estimate the likely size of these differentials for European Union countries, discuss the potential costs of persistent inflation differentials, and comment on the conflicts they may cause within Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The analytical framework is a variant of the Balassa–Samuelson "productivity hypotheisis," which relates sectoral productivity trends to trends in the relative price of home goods. 相似文献