Backcasting energy futures using industrial ecology

Backcasting has been widely used for developing energy futures. This paper explores the potential for using industrial ecology to guide the development of energy futures within a backcasting framework. Building on the backcasting work of Robinson [1], a seven step method is presented to embed industrial ecology principles within the development and assessment of future scenarios and transition paths toward them. The approach is applied to the case of backcasting regional energy futures in the Latrobe Valley, near Melbourne, Australia. This region has substantial brown coal deposits which are currently mined and used in coal-fired power stations to generate electricity. Bounded by a sustainability vision for the region in a carbon-constrained world, regional industrial ecologies in 2050 were backcast around three themes: bio-industries and renewables (no coal usage); electricity from coal with carbon capture and storage (low to high coal usage); and coal to products such as hydrogen, ammonia, diesel, methanol, plastics and char (demonstrating medium to high overall coal use relative to current levels). Potential environmental, technological, socio-political and economic impacts of each scenario across various life cycle stages were characterised. Results offer a platform for regional policy development to underpin deliberation on a preferred future by the community, industry and other stakeholders. Industrial ecology principles were found to be useful in backcasting for creatively articulating alternative futures featuring industrial symbiosis. However, enabling the approach to guide implementation of sustainable transition pathways requires further development and would benefit from integration within the Strategic Sustainable Development framework of Robèrt et al. [2].     

A direct test of hyperbolic discounting using market asset data

This paper introduces a framework that generalizes exponential discounting in a net present value model by including a quasi-hyperbolic discount parameter in the asset valuation equation. Using observed market asset data, a statistically significant quasi-hyperbolic parameter is obtained, thus rejecting exponential discounting.     

Bureaucratic Decision Costs and Endogenous Agency Expertise

This article analyzes the effect of the cost that an agencymust incur to adopt a new regulation (the "enactment cost")on the agency's incentive to invest in expertise. The effectof the enactment cost on agency expertise depends on whetherthe agency would regulate if it fails to acquire additionalinformation about the regulation's effects. If an uninformedagency would regulate, increasing enactment costs increasesagency expertise; if an uninformed agency would retain the statusquo, increasing enactment costs decreases agency expertise.These results may influence the behavior of an uninformed overseer,such as a court or legislature, that can manipulate the agency'senactment costs. Such an overseer must balance its interestin influencing agency policy preferences against its interestin increasing agency expertise. The article discusses the implicationsof these results for various topics in institutional design,including judicial and executive review of agency regulations,structure-and-process theories of congressional oversight, nationalsecurity, criminal procedure, and constitutional law.     

Medical insurance with rank-dependent utility

Summary. A well-known result in the medical insurance literature is that zero co-insurance is never second-best for insurance contracts subject to moral hazard. We replace the usual expected utility assumption with a version of the rank-dependent utility (RDU) model that has greater experimental support. When consumers exhibit such preferences, we show that zero co-insurance may in fact be optimal, especially for low-risk consumers. Indeed, it is even possible that the first-best and second-best contracts are identical. In this case, there is no “market failure”, despite the informational asymmetry. We argue that these RDU results are in better accord with the empirical evidence from US health insurance markets. Received: February 26, 2001; revised version: October 4, 2002 RID="*" ID="*"The authors would particularly like to thank Simon Grant, John Quiggin, Peter Wakker and an anonymous referee for valuable comments and suggestions on earlier drafts. The paper has also benefitted from the input of seminar audiences at The Australian National University, University of Auckland, University of Melbourne and University of Sydney. Ryan also gratefully acknowledges the financial support of the ARC, through Grant number A000000055. Correspondence to:R. Vaithianathan     

TO TAX OR NOT TO TAX? THE CASE OF ELECTRONIC COMMERCE

Despite the intensifying debate over the taxation of Internet commerce, the relevant issues have not been given a systematic treatment in the context of the literature on optimal taxation. This article presents such an analysis and investigates separately the taxation of business purchases of intermediate goods, the taxation of consumer purchases of final goods and services, and the various issues of administration and compliance costs as they apply to the development of E-commerce. The authors conclude that generally the optimal tax literature cannot be used in support of a blanket tax exemption for Internet purchases. Certain conditions could lead to the optimality of an exemption, but those conditions are not likely to be met in practice.     

Combinations of technology in US patents, 1926–2009: a weakening base for future innovation?

In combinatorial models of innovations, new technologies are built from combinations of pre-existing technological components. Researchers learn which components work well together by observing previously successful combinations and the pool of ideas can be ‘fished out’, i.e. exhausted, if it is not ‘restocked’ by the discovery of novel connections. We first show US patents have made increasingly less novel connections among technological constituents since the 1950s, and that the number of technological fields to which these connections are applicable has stopped growing since the 1980s. We then estimate the parameters of an ideas production function, and find parameter estimates consistent with technology fields being fished out if not continually restocked by the discovery of novel connections between technological components. We use the ideas production function to estimate the number of new patent applications induced by each patent granted between 1926 and 2001, and show this number has trended downward since the 1940s.     

When does incentive compensation motivate managerial behaviors? An experimental investigation of the fit between incentive compensation,executive core self-evaluation,and firm performance

We develop and test an integrative model that examines the fit between compensation schemes, executives' characteristics, and situational factors. We propose that a fit among all three factors is crucial to motivate desirable managerial behaviors. Using a specially designed management simulation, our study demonstrates that the effectiveness of incentive compensation to motivate managerial behaviors depends on executives' core self-evaluation and firm performance. Our results show that, relative to fixed salary compensation, executives with higher core self-evaluation respond to incentive compensation with greater perseverance, competitive strategy focus, ethical behavior, and strategic risk taking during organizational decline. However, these interaction effects are not present during organizational growth. Our theory and empirical evidence provide significant insights into the complex relationships among compensation schemes, executives' characteristics, firm performance, and managerial behaviors. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

THE IMPACT OF BODY WEIGHT ON OCCUPATIONAL MOBILITY AND CAREER DEVELOPMENT

This article examines the relationship between individuals' weight and employment decisions over the life cycle. I estimate a dynamic stochastic model of individuals' annual choices of occupation, hours worked, and schooling. Evidence suggests that heavier individuals face higher switching costs when transitioning into white‐collar occupations, earn lower returns to experience in white‐collar occupations, and earn lower wages in socially intensive jobs. I simulate a hypothetical antidiscrimination policy treating obese workers as a protected class. Although such a policy would reduce gaps in occupational attainment, it would have little effect on the observed divergence in wages between obese and nonobese workers.     

Equilibrium Effects of Superstition in the Housing Market

We investigate the interaction of product quality differentiation and consumer preference heterogeneity in durable goods markets, focusing on the effects of secondary market liquidity and consumer heterogeneity on equilibrium prices. We build an infinite‐horizon dynamic model of the apartments housing market that captures the above features. Some apartments are considered lucky, and some consumers are superstitious. Lucky apartments are valued more highly than non‐lucky ones only by superstitious consumers. Results show that the difference between the lucky apartment price and the non‐lucky apartment price becomes smaller when the secondary market becomes less liquid and when consumers’ preference heterogeneity becomes more persistent as opposed to time‐varying.