Forecasting World Trade: Direct Versus “Bottom-Up” Approaches

In a globalised world economy, global factors have become increasingly important to explain trade flows at the expense of country-specific determinants. This paper shows empirically the superiority of direct forecasting methods, in which world trade is directly forecasted at the aggregate levels, relative to “bottom-up” approaches, where world trade results from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors summarise large-scale datasets relevant in the determination of trade flows.

Chancen und Risiken in den Finanzmärkten

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Wie motiviert man Unternehmertum in Deutschland?

Zwischen der Zahl der Unternehmensneugründungen und dem Wirtschaftswachstum besteht in Industriel?ndern ein deutlich positiver Zusammenhang. Welche Funktionen haben die Unternehmen im Wachstumsprozess? Was hindert bzw. f?rdert Unternehmertum in Deutschland? Wie kann die Politik die Unternehmer motivieren? Prof. Dr. Norbert Berthold, 55, ist Inhaber des Lehrstuhls für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Wirtschaftsordnung und Sozialpolitik an der Bayerischen Julius-Maximilians-Universit?t Würzburg; Matthias Kullas, 29, Dipl.-Volkswirt, ist wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter am selben Lehrstuhl; Dr. Michael Neumann, 34, ist Mitarbeiter am Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft K?ln.     

The Reliability of Certification: Quality Labels as a Consumer Policy Tool

Given the large number of certification systems in the food industry, it is surprising that there are only a few research approaches to the economics of certification. Certification schemes are used to ensure marketing claims for unobservable quality attributes. Under asymmetric information, process-oriented quality characteristics such as organic farming, animal welfare, or fair trade raise the question of mislabelling. In the long run, only a reliable control procedure can reduce the risk of food scandals. The article presents a model which includes several starting points to enhance the efficiency of certification systems and the corresponding labels. On the whole, tendencies towards price wars on the certification market and considerable differences in performance reveal the necessity of institutional changes. Strategies for reducing auditors dependence, intensifying liability, increasing reputation effects, and minimizing audit costs are suggested. Finally, policy implications for public and private monitoring are discussed.     

Exploring Everyday Self-Regulation in Nearby Nature: Determinants,Patterns, and a Framework of Nearby Outdoor Recreation Behavior

The understanding of determinants and underlying mechanisms of everyday nearby outdoor recreation behavior (NORB) remains insufficient for use in urban planning. We explored the nearby recreational decisions of walkers, cyclists, and joggers in problem-focused interviews (N = 18). The identified influences include various demands of work and private life, strains, and action circumstances. Loads and strains showed several compensatory associations with NORB. These findings were synthesized into a NORB framework that offers empirically grounded hypotheses for future research. The proposed framework may help to integrate findings from different research fields while providing a more comprehensive understanding of NORB.