Protection and skills: Does trade policy favor low‐skill workers?

Many believe that international trade barriers in rich nations help low‐skill workers. Also, the empirical endogenous protection literature strongly implies that protection decreases with skill levels. This paper presents evidence against this conventional wisdom. Regressions based on a political economy model with search frictions and unemployment imply that protection and skill levels actually have a mound‐shaped relationship: industries with skills in the middle range get more protection than industries at either end of the distribution. Apparently, the politics of trade policy trump social concerns, rendering protection less “progressive” than is commonly believed.     

保险业要么锁定客户，要么收购

贝恩公司调查发现,仅有1／10的保险公司成功地实现连年持续地创造价值。许多公司最终表现欠佳的主要原因在于,他们严重误判自己提供客户所需产品／服务的能力。当高级主管被问及是否认为本公司提供最佳客户体验时,77％的高管自认为是,但仅有6％的客户认同。那么,究竟什么才是保险业实现最佳股东回报的关键呢?     

Are school counselors an effective education input?

We exploit within-school variation in counselors and find that one additional counselor reduces student misbehavior and increases boys’ academic achievement by over one percentile point. These effects compare favorably with those of increased teacher quality and smaller class sizes.     

The impact of generalized and institutional trust on donating to activist,leisure, and interest organizations: individual and contextual effects

In this paper, we answer the question as to what extent donating to activist, interest, and leisure organizations is affected by both individual and national levels of generalized and institutional trust. We use the European Social Survey 2002 to estimate multilevel random intercept models, based on more than 33 000 individuals living in 19 European countries and the USA. Our results show very consistent positive impacts of both individual generalized trust and institutional trust on donating to all types of organizations. The effects are strongest for donating to activist organizations and absent only for the relation between institutional trust and donating to interest organizations. At the national level, generalized trust positively affects donations to activist and leisure organizations, but not to interest organizations. Institutional trust at the national level is negatively related to donations to all types of organizations. This latter finding suggests that when institutions are perceived to function well, individuals estimate that their philanthropic donations are less needed. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts

When forecasting decisions in conflict situations, experts are often advised to figuratively stand in the other person’s shoes. We refer to this as “role thinking”, because, in practice, the advice is to think about how other protagonists will view the situation in order to predict their decisions. We tested the effect of role thinking on forecast accuracy. We obtained 101 role-thinking forecasts of the decisions that would be made in nine diverse conflicts from 27 Naval postgraduate students (experts) and 107 role-thinking forecasts from 103 second-year organizational behavior students (novices). The accuracy of the novices’ forecasts was 33% and that of the experts’ was 31%; both were little different from chance (guessing), which was 28%. The small improvement in accuracy from role-thinking strengthens the finding from earlier research that it is not sufficient to think hard about a situation in order to predict the decisions which groups of people will make when they are in conflict. Instead, it is useful to ask groups of role players to simulate the situation. When groups of novice participants adopted the roles of protagonists in the aforementioned nine conflicts and interacted with each other, their group decisions predicted the actual decisions with an accuracy of 60%.     

Group concept mapping methodology: toward an epistemology of group conceptualization,complexity, and emergence

Quality & Quantity - Group concept mapping is a participatory mixed-methods approach to social and behavioral research that integrates qualitative group processes with multivariate statistical...