The Origins and Development of the Latin American Structuralist Approach to the Balance of Payments, 1944–1964

The paper offers an historical account of the origins and development of the Latin American structuralist approach to the balance of payments between 1944 and 1964. We focus on the contributions by Raul Prebisch, Celso Furtado and Juan Noyola, all of them members of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America (CEPAL) during the 1950s. Prebisch used the foreign trade multiplier concept to distinguish the business cycle mechanisms at the ‘centre’ and at the ‘periphery’. Noyola introduced the notion of external disequilibrium as a feature of the industrialization process. This was further elaborated by Prebisch's formula connecting the relative rates of growth to the ratio of income-elasticities of import. Furtado examined the implications of the external demand constraint for economic growth, an important element of the two-gap models of the 1960s. The main piece of empirical structuralist research was the CEPAL 1957 report about Mexican external disequilibrium elaborated by Furtado and Noyola, not published at the time; we discuss that report in the context of the Mexican devaluation of 1954.     

Complex agent-based macroeconomics: a manifesto for a new paradigm

This article discusses some issues and challenges facing modern macroeconomics. We argue for the necessity to replace the reductionist approach at the heart of mainstream DSGE models with an approach rooted on the science of complexity and agent-based modelling. To strengthen and exemplify our position, we show a simple example and introduce several items for a research agenda along these lines.     

Volatility and persistence of fluntuations: individual production series in Italy, 1890–1985

The analysis is focused on possible time-related changes in the cyclical behaviour of production using a set of individual production series. Disaggregate data are used to analyse whether short-run fluctuations have actually become less extreme or erratic in time and whether the tendency of shocks to have permanent or transitory effects has changed between the pre-war and post-war eras. A third aspect of cyclical trends examined concerns the correlation of short-term changes across sectors. The main finding of the paper is that there has been little change in the behaviour of the individual series over time in fluctuation size, persistence and frequency. Thus, a reduction in variability appears also to be due to a problem of statistical measurement. Rather then suggesting, as the standard literature does, that demand shocks were unimportant in the post-war period – which implies that supply shocks were more important – an estimate of the Italian experience gives evidence of the importance of both causes.     

Increasing inequality,consumer credit and financial fragility in an agent based macroeconomic model

We investigate the interplay between increasing inequality and consumer credit in a complex macroeconomic system with financially fragile heterogeneous households, firms and banks. Simulation results show that there are pros and cons of introducing consumer credit: on the one hand, for a certain time, it leads to lower unemployment through boosting aggregate demand; on the other hand, it accelerates the system tendency to the crisis. Since the increase of financial profits goes with a decline of households’ real wealth, a policy trade-off emerges.     

Bowling alone but tweeting together: the evolution of human interaction in the social networking era

The objective of this paper is to theoretically analyze how human interaction may evolve in a world characterized by the explosion of online networking and other Web-mediated ways of building and nurturing relationships. The analysis shows that online networking yields a storage mechanism through which any individual contribution—e.g. a blog post, a comment, or a photo—is stored within a particular network and ready for virtual access by each member who connects to the network. When someone provides feedback, for example by commenting on a note, or by replying to a message, the interaction is finalized. These interactions are asynchronous, i.e. they allow individuals to relate in different moments, whenever they have time to. When the social environment is poor of participation opportunities and/or the pressure on time increases (for example due to the need to increase the working time), the stock of information and ties stored in the Internet can help individuals to defend their sociability.