Foreign assistance and emigration: Accounting for the role of non-transferred aid

Since policymakers increasingly regard foreign aid as a means to manage international flows of migrants, it is important to obtain accurate empirical evidence on the complex link between aid and migration. Recent research has shown that the impact of foreign assistance on migrant flows is highly heterogeneous across aid categories. In this paper, we focus on a dimension of heterogeneity that has so far not been considered in the literature, namely whether or not the delivery of foreign aid is associated with a transfer of resources to the recipient country. We show in a first step that non-transferred aid is quantitatively important, accounting for more than 25% of overall aid given by OECD DAC donors in 2016. Running separate gravity-type regressions for transferred and non-transferred aid, we then find that transferred aid has a much stronger (negative) impact on migration than the previously used total aid variable that includes the non-transferred component. As may be expected, non-transferred aid itself does not appear to affect migrant flows. A high share of non-transferred aid would therefore be at odds with the donors’ stated goal of tackling the root causes of migration.     

A note on symmetry breaking in a non linear marketing model

Decisions in Economics and Finance - In this paper, we consider the nonlinear discrete-time dynamic model proposed by Bischi and Baiardi (Chaos Solitons Fractals 79:145-156, 2015a). The model...     

Social networks and labour productivity in Europe: an empirical investigation

This paper uses firm-level data recorded in the Amadeus database to investigate the distribution of labour productivity in different European countries. We find that the upper tail of the empirical productivity distributions follows a decaying power-law, whose exponent α is obtained by a semi-parametric estimation technique recently developed by Clementi et al. [Physica A 370(1):49–53, 2006]. The emergence of “fat tails” in productivity distribution has already been detected in Di Matteo et al. [Eur Phys J B 47(3):459–466, 2005] and explained by means of a model of social network. Here we show that this model is tested on a broader sample of countries having different patterns of social network structure. These different social attitudes, measured using a social capital indicator, reflect in the power-law exponent estimates, verifying in this way the existence of linkages among firms’ productivity performance and social network.     

Risk and the strategy of foreign location choice in regulated industries

We argue that firms in regulated industries react to macroeconomic and policy risks in sharply different ways. While they seek to avoid countries with high levels of macroeconomic uncertainty, we predict that they find it more attractive to expand into countries characterized by governments with discretionary policymaking capacities so as to be able to negotiate favorable conditions of entry. We also argue that firms are heterogeneous in their attitudes toward risk. We predict that firms in which the state holds a partial equity stake exhibit a more tolerant attitude. We also expect that as firms accumulate foreign experience, they develop an aversion toward further foreign entries into politically unstable markets. Support for these predictions is provided by an analysis of the Latin American market entries of all listed Spanish firms in regulated industries between 1987 and 2000. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Instrumental variables and wavelet decompositions

The application of wavelet analysis provides an orthogonal decomposition of a time series by time scale, thereby facilitating the decomposition of a data series into the sum of a structural component and a random error component. The structural components revealed by the wavelet analysis yield nearly ideal instrumental variables for variables observed with error and for co-endogenous variables in simultaneous equation models. Wavelets also provide an efficient way to explore the path of the structural component of the series to be analyzed and can be used to detect some specification errors. The methodology described in this paper is applied to the errors in variables problem and simultaneous equations case using some simulation exercises and to the analysis of a version of the Phillips curve with interesting results.     

Relational consumption and nonlinear dynamics in an overlapping generations model

In this paper, we show that incorporating the relational dimension into an otherwise standard OLG model and focusing on dynamic leisure externalities leads to dramatically different predictions. Here, we show that when the old perceive private and relational consumption as substitutable goods, a series of interesting dynamic outcomes—such as local indeterminacy, nonlinear phenomena (including chaotic dynamics) and even multiple equilibria with global indeterminacy—may arise. We also draw some welfare implications and relate them to the well-known “happiness paradox” arising within contemporary affluent societies.     

Overseas business costs and firm export performance

Abstract.  The recent microeconomic literature on international trade has highlighted the importance of firm characteristics and trade costs for exports. This study provides evidence on one type of those costs, the costs of doing business overseas, from a theoretical and empirical perspective. Controlling for firm- and industry-level covariates, we find that improvements in the business environment of foreign countries lead to an increase in the export intensity of exporters in the UK manufacturing sector and additional export market entry. Further investigation suggests that important determinants of foreign business costs include factors relating to legal structure, property rights, and business regulation.     

Pricing growth-indexed bonds

Growth-indexed bonds have been suggested as a way of reducing the procyclicality of emerging-market countries’ fiscal policies and the likelihood of costly debt crises. Investor attitude surveys suggest that pricing difficulties are seen as a considerable obstacle. In an effort to reduce such concerns, this article presents a simple way of pricing growth-indexed bonds. As a pleasant by-product, the analysis tracks the quantitative implications of an increase in the share of growth-indexed bonds in total debt, measuring the ensuing decline in the probability of default and the reduction in the spreads at which standard bonds can be issued.