Speculative attack against the Hungarian forint

In mid-January 2003 a severe speculative attack was launched against the exchange rate of the Hungarian forint. The attack was very unusual in the history of foreign exchange speculations, since it was aimed at enforcing the appreciation — and not the depreciation — of the currency targeted. The specific nature of this kind of speculation is closely related to Hungary’s accession to the European Union in general and to EMU in particular. Since the other Central and Eastern European acceding countries face similar problems and challenges, the Hungarian experience may involve some instructive lessons on monetary and economic policy for them too.     

Explaining the slow U.S. recovery: 2010–2017

This paper argues that the slow U.S. recovery after the 2008–2009 recession was due to sluggish government spending. The analysis uses a structural macroeconometric model. Conditional on government policy, the errors in predicting output for the 2009.4–2017.4 period are within what one would expect historically. Productivity and labor force participation are endogenous variables in the model, and so their behaviors in this period are a consequence of the slow growth rather than a cause.     

Vertical Integration in the Japanese Movie Industry

This study examines vertical integration in the Japanese movie industry. I estimate an admission price equation, and a moviegoing demand equation derived from a discrete choice model of product differentiation. In order to overcome identification problems, this study exploits a panel structure dataset. My results show that the price of vertically integrated theaters tends to be higher than nonintegrated theaters, but it appears to be due to the inherent high quality of vertically integrated theaters. On the other hand, vertically integrated theaters are more popular among consumers and have higher attendance than nonintegrated theaters. Even after controlling the theater fixed effects, attendance for vertically integrated theaters is still larger than nonintegrated theaters. That is, the integration of producers/distributors and theaters is likely to be a source of economic efficiency. Policy implications are also proposed.     

A Sealed-Bid Two-Attribute Yardstick Auction Without Prior Scoring

We analyze a two-attribute single item procurement auction that uses yardstick competition to settle prices. The auction simplifies the procurement process by reducing the principal’s articulation of preferences to simply choosing the most preferred offer as if it was a market with posted prices. This is done simply by replacing the submitted sealed bids by yardstick bids, computed by a linear weighting of the other participants’ bids. We show that there is only one type of Nash equilibria where some agents may win the auction by submitting a zero price-bid. Using a simulation study we demonstrate that following this type of equilibrium behavior often leads to winner’s curse. The simulations show that in auctions with more than 12 participants the chance of facing winner’s curse is around 95 %. Truthful reporting, on the other hand, does not constitute a Nash equilibrium but it is ex post individually rational. Using a simulation study we demonstrate that truthful bidding may indeed represent some kind of focal point.     

Healthcare rationing and patient rights

All modern healthcare systems face growing gaps between funding and treatment possibilities. Societal expectations call for decisions on whether to relax or accept resource constraints and how to deal with the respective consequences. The following article compares the different ways in which the healthcare systems in the USA, Germany and the UK have dealt with these problems to date.     

Connecting the Two Faces of CSR: Does Employee Volunteerism Improve Compliance?

In 2004, the United States Sentencing Commission amended the Federal Sentencing Guidelines to allow firms that create “effective compliance and ethics programs” to receive better treatment if prosecuted for fraud. Effective compliance and ethics, however, appear to be limited to activities focused on complying with the firms’ internal legal and ethical standards. We explored a potential connection between the firms’ external corporate social responsibility (CSR) behaviors and internal compliance: Is there an organizationally valid relationship between these two firm activities? That is, when organizations demonstrate CSR with behaviors external to the firm, such as employee volunteerism, are their employees more likely to demonstrate uncompromised legal and ethical compliance behavior internally? We collected data from 164 working professionals enrolled in a top-tier MBA program in the southeastern United States regarding their employer-sponsored volunteer activities and their intentions to comply in various organizational compliance vignettes. We found that employer-sponsored volunteerism is associated with uncompromised compliance choices in one of the three vignettes. This finding indicates preliminary support for further inquiry into the relationship within the firm between external CSR behaviors and policies regarding organizational compliance. Post hoc analyses suggest that employer-sponsored volunteerism is strongly associated with a positive organizational identity, but organizational identity is not associated with the significant compliance vignette. This evidence suggests that the underlying mechanism that connects external CSR behaviors and internal compliance intentions is complex and requires future study.     

Product-design perception and brand strength

In this article, we present an approach to understanding product design from a cognitive psychologist’s view. We show what cognitive processes are involved in perceiving products. Moreover, we discuss how these processes are related to the mental formation of brands and how they affect perceivers’ appreciation of a product’s design.     

Exploring alternative strategic management paradigms in high-growth ethnic and non-ethnic family firms

The primary research question examined in this paper is whether ethnic and non-ethnic family firms in the United Kingdom differ in their strategy-making. The paper uses the typology of strategic decision-making produced by Whittington [(1993). What is strategy: and does it matter? New York: Routledge] to derive contrasting predictions of strategy-making by ethnic versus non-ethnic firms. Drawing on a questionnaire study of 76 high-growth family firms, and subsequent in-depth fieldwork with 40 of these, the findings show that the ethnic origin of the controlling family has a significant influence in determining the dominance of a particular strategy paradigm. However, successful high-growth family firms are not associated with any particular school of strategy. The influence of family bonding on strategy-making was greater in ethnic family firms than non-ethnic family firms. The advent of the second generation of South Asians in family firms, and closer integration of immigrant and host communities, has not altered these apparent differences. The findings challenge researchers on family firms to adopt a multiple perspective approach to strategy-making.     

A Bayesian Bioeconometric Model of Invasive Species Control: The Case of the Hemlock Woolly Adelgid

In this article we evaluate a US Forest Service plan to mitigate damages from an invasive insect on public, forested land. We develop a dynamic model of infestation and control to explicitly account for biological interactions, baseline conditions, and uncertainty, thus creating a more complete picture of policy impacts than a static cost benefit analysis could provide. We combine the results of the dynamic model with an empirical study of nonmarket forest benefits to create a bioeconomic model of ecosystem management. Estimating the empirical model in a Bayesian framework allows us to treat the economic coefficients of the dynamic model as random variables. We specify distributions for the biological parameters and examine the effects of both biological and economic uncertainty on the predictive distribution of net benefits. We find that the net benefits of the program are positive, and that uncertainty in the biological model contributes substantially more to the variance of our estimate than does uncertainty over the valuation of the resource.