历史的教训：逆向思维者胜

经济动荡期的管理是一种至关重要的商业能力。在经济低迷期，良好的企业管理不仅能够使企业的经营业绩优异于竞争对手，而且，在经济低迷期建立起来的竞争优势更具有可持续性。     

A Backward Induction Experiment

This paper reports experiments with one-stage and two-stage alternating-offers bargaining games. Payoff-interdependent preferences have been suggested as an explanation for experimental results that are commonly inconsistent with players' maximizing their monetary payoffs and performing backward induction calculations. We examine whether, given payoff-interdependent preferences, players respect backward induction. To do this, we break backward induction into its components, subgame consistency and truncation consistency. We examine each by comparing the outcomes of two-stage bargaining games with one-stage games with varying rejection payoffs. We find and characterize systematic violations of both subgame and truncation consistency. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C70, C78.     

Life cycle assessment in the food supply chain: a case study

This research aims at assessing the environmental impact of the poultry supply chain from cradle to grave using case study research and also life cycle assessment (LCA). While a limited number of generic poultry production LCA studies have been published, fewer yet assess the whole process of a specific organisation, none comparing the increased impact of further processing. Our results show that irrespectively of the impact assessment method utilised, the process of producing portions is considerably higher in total environmental impact due to the extra raw material required to produce the same mass into retail. Our research contributes to the growing number of LCA studies and could be used by practitioners for comparison against national and international averages. From a theoretical point of view, this research provides new insights into the relationship between vertically integrated supply chains and environmental performance which has not been examined in the past.     

The Market Perception of Convertible Debt Versus Straight Debt: some Empirical Evidence from U.S. Firms and Non-U.S. Firms Listed in the U.S.

Accounting for convertible debt has long been a source of controversy in the accounting profession in the U.S. Current U.S. accounting rules require classifying convertible debt at date of issuance as "entirely debt" until conversion, despite numerous studies that assert that convertible debt is not "entirely debt", but is a blend of debt and equity. Convertible debt has taken on international interest because of the issuance of International Accounting Standard (IAS) 32, Financial Instruments; Disclosure and Presentation, which prescribes reporting separate debt and equity components for convertible debt. This study examines convertible debt issued by U.S. firms and non-U.S. firms listed in the U.S. using a levels approach. Specifically, convertible debt is compared to straight debt and contrary to ex ante expectation, convertible debt was not found to be perceived as being significantly different than straight debt for U.S. firms for any years and is statistically different in only two of the six years tested for non-U.S. firms. The validity of this study's findings is underscored by its research design, which compares convertible debt and straight debt issued by the same firms. The findings suggest that investors regard reported amounts of convertible debt similar to straight debt in their assessment of firm value.     

An investigation of long memory in various measures of stock market volatility, using wavelets and aggregate series

Using methods based on wavelets and aggregate series, long memory in the absolute daily returns, squared daily returns, and log squared daily returns of the S&P 500 Index are investigated. First, we estimate the long memory parameter in each series using a method based on the discrete wavelet transform. For each series, the variance method and the absolute value method based on aggregate series are then employed to investigate long memory. Our findings suggest that these methods provide evidence of long memory in the volatility of the S&P 500 Index. Our esteemed colleague, Robert DiSario, passed away on December 31, 2005.     

Housing Activity and Consumer Spending

The current expansion has seen record-high levels of transactions in housing, extraordinary growth in the aggregate value of owner-occupied housing, and large increases in the amount of funds realized from the refinancing of mortgage debt. Many analysts thus have pointed to the strong housing market and rising home prices as a major pillar supporting recent economic growth and have expressed concern that a contraction in housing activity and values could pose a significant risk to consumer spending and real economic growth. This paper explores the channels by which the housing market may affect consumer spending and assesses the potential risk from a softening in the housing market. Our assessment is that while a housing slowdown by itself may slow consumer spending some, it is probably insufficient to precipitate a downturn without some additional shocks outside of the sector. JEL Classification E21,R21     

Empirical Tests of the Proxy Hypothesis

The proxy hypothesis states that the negative relationship between inflation and stock returns is spurious and really only proxies for the positive relationship between stock returns and real variables. Previous testes of the proxy hypothesis have used actual values instead of forecasted values for the real activity variable. Using only forecasted variables, our results do not support the proxy hypothesis.     

Strategic investment flexibility for MNE success in Russia: Evolving beyond entry modes

Many American multinational enterprises (MNEs) are currently active in Russia despite the turbulence encountered in that transitional economy. Most seem to have entered as an extension of their global strategies with a long-term horizon. While some entered with considerable involvement and substantial investment, others followed a more cautious or incremental path. This article focuses on how MNE strategies have evolved after entry and describes six strategic approaches. Strategic investment flexibility is found to depend upon a company 's original entry strategy and tolerance for risk, as well as its assessment of the legal and political environment, industry conditions, market readiness for its products or services, competition, and the investment required to establish a sustainable competitive position. Keys to successful strategy development are drawn from the experiences of US MNEs which have established growing businesses in the vast Russian market. The strategies of such successful MNEs, however initiated upon entry, usually evolved to a relatively heavy investment position.     

Transient Solidarities: Commitment and Collective Action in Post‐Industrial Societies

Solidarity has long been considered essential to labour, but many fear that it has declined. There has been relatively little scholarly investigation of it because of both theoretical and empirical difficulties. This article argues that solidarity has not declined but has changed in form, which has an impact on what kinds of mobilization are effective. We first develop a theory of solidarity general enough to compare different forms. We then trace the evolution of solidarity through craft and industrial versions, to the emergence of collaborative solidarity from the increasingly fluid ‘friending’ relations of recent decades. Finally, we examine the question of whether these new solidarities can be mobilized into effective collective action, and suggest mechanisms, rather different from traditional union mobilizations, that have shown some power in drawing on friending relations: the development of member platforms, the use of purposive campaigns and the co‐ordination of ‘swarming’ actions. In the best cases, these can create collective actions that make a virtue of diversity, openness and participative engagement, by co‐ordinating groups with different foci and skills.     

Trust or Not?

In recent press there have been various reports alluding to the conduct of foreigners in China.These have ranged from the disgraceful and unseemly,notably the behaviour of a British man who drunkly molested a Chinese girl,to the frivolous,best illustrated in the antics of a rude Russian cellist refusing to move his feet on a train - something that bewilderingly received nationwide coverage in a country the size of a continent.