The Value-Relevance of Derivative Disclosures by Commercial Banks: A Comprehensive Study of Information Content Under SFAS Nos. 119 and 133

This study examines the value-relevance of banks' derivative disclosures under Statements of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) Nos. 119 and 133. Using the complete time-series of SFAS No. 119 disaggregated notional value disclosures and the most recently available SFAS No. 133 fair value data, this study investigates whether such expanded disclosures provide incremental information content beyond earnings and book value. Our results indicate that banks' notional principal amount disclosures are value-relevant, and that this evidence of incremental information content is robust to the inclusion of recently available fair value data and alternative model specifications. JEL Classification: M41, G21     

Financing Preferences of Spanish Firms: Evidence on the Pecking Order Theory

This paper analyses some of the empirical implications of the pecking order theory in the Spanish market using a panel data analysis of 1,566 firms over 1994–2000. The results show that the pecking order theory holds for most subsamples analyzed, particularly for the small and medium-sized enterprises and for the high-growth and highly leveraged companies. It is also shown that both the more and the less leveraged firms tend to converge towards more balanced capital structures. Finally, we observe that firms finance their funds flow deficits with long term debt.     

Dynamic Linkages Between the Greater China Economic Area Stock Markets—Mainland China,Hong Kong,and Taiwan

This research examines the linkages among three Greater China Economic Area (GCEA) stock markets, including Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, and two developed markets, Japan and the United States. We find that: (1) a random walk model is outpredicted by an autoregressive GARCH model and an ARIMA model in all three GCEA markets; (2) the three GCEA markets are not cointegrated with either U.S. or Japan but there exists weak nonlinear relationships between these markets; and (3) result from the innovation accounting analysis reveals that the U.S. market has larger influence on the GCEA markets than the Japanese market. Additionally, Hong Kong is the most influential among the three GCEA markets.JEL Classification: G10, G14, G15Opinions and results presented in this paper are those of the authors and are not intended to represent the views, policies, or interests of Fannie Mae. This paper is not the result of Fannie Mae related research and does not use or cite Fannie Mae data sources.     

Real Interest Rate Parity: Long-Run and Short-Run Analysis Using Wavelets

In this article, long-run and short-run relationships among real interest rates in G-7 countries are empirically analyzed. The evidence suggests the existence of long-run relationships among these real interest rates. However, the long-run relationship is not an equality relationship. Short-run relationships are estimated using dynamic simultaneous equation models. They reveal that the real interest rates of non-U.S. G-7 countries react and adjust to long-run disequilibrium conditions. A more detailed analysis based on wavelet transform indicates the existence of both short-run and long-run relationships; however, strict interest rate parity does not seem to hold true.JEL Classification: C22, E43, G15     

Currency Hedging Using the Mean-Gini Framework

The mean-Gini framework has been suggested as a robust alternative to the portfolio approach to futures hedging given its optimality under general distributional conditions. However, calculation of the Gini hedge ratio requires estimation of the underlying price distribution. We estimate minimum-Gini hedge ratios using two widely-used estimation procedures, the empirical distribution function method and the kernel method, for three emerging market and three developed market currencies. We find that these methods yield different Gini hedge ratios. These differences increase with risk aversion and are statistically significant for all developed market currencies but only one emerging market currency. In-sample analyses show that the empirical distribution function method is more effective at risk reduction than the kernel method for developed market currencies, whereas the kernel method is superior for emerging market currencies. Post-sample analyses strengthen the superiority of the empirical distribution function method for developed market and, in several cases, for emerging market currencies.JEL Classification: F31, G15     

Tax Evasion and Auditing in a Federal Economy

This paper analyzes the relation between tax auditing and fiscal equalization in the context of fiscal competition. We incorporate a model of tax evasion by firms into a standard tax competition framework where regional governments use their audit rates as a strategic instrument to engage in fiscal competition. We compare the region’s choice of audit policies for three different cases: A scenario of unconfined competition without interregional transfers, a scenario with a gross revenue equalization (GRS) scheme and finally, a scenario with net revenue sharing (NRS), where not only the revenues from taxation but also the regions auditing costs are shared. Without regional transfers, fiscal competition leads to audit rates which are inefficiently low for revenue-maximizing governments. While in general GRS aggravates the inefficiency, NRS makes the decentralized choice of auditing policies more efficient.JEL Code: H26, H71, H77     

How Does FDI React to Corporate Taxation?

Based on a panel of bilateral FDI flows among 11 OECD countries over 1984–2000, we show that, although agglomeration-related factors are strong determinants of FDI, tax differentials also play a significant role in understanding foreign location decisions. We further investigate non-linearities in the impact of tax differentials, and explore the impact of tax schemes. Our results are consistent with the imperfect competition literature which underscores the possibility of tax differentials across countries in equilibrium.JEL Code: F21, H25, H87     

Social Security,Unemployment, and Growth

The paper develops an overlapping generations model that highlights interactions between social security, unemployment and growth. The social security system has two components: old age pensions and unemployment insurance. Pensions have a direct effect on economic growth. Both pensions and unemployment benefits influence equilibrium unemployment caused by wage bargaining. Since unemployment deteriorates growth, both types of social security have an indirect negative effect on growth.JEL Code: E24, H55, J51     

Economic Growth and Tax-Competing Leviathans

Is tax competition good for economic growth? The paper addresses this question by means of a simple model of economic growth in which a wasteful Leviathan state sets taxes and provides a productive input. Wasteful behaviour is restricted by the voter, who reduces political support if her income is reduced. The intensity of tax competition is modelled via variation of a parameter measuring the mobility of the tax base. It is shown that the effects of increased mobility of the tax base on economic growth are ambiguous and that the elasticity of intertemporal substitution, which in this model equals the rate of intratemporal substitution between the government’s own consumption and its political support, is a decisive variable in this context.     

Dynamic Effects of Extending the 2001 and 2003 Income Tax Cuts

This paper focuses on the impact of permanently extending most of the provisions in EGTRRA and JGTRRA, coupled with potential legislative changes to the AMT, on the federal deficit, the distribution of after-tax income, and economic growth. The paper shows that including moderate behavioral responses offsets 16 percent of the static revenue loss estimate from 2005 to 2014. In addition, including behavioral responses implies that the percentage change in after-tax income from permanently extending the 2001 and 2003 income tax cuts would be largest for taxpayers with incomes ranging from $20,000 to $40,000. Finally, the simulation results suggest that extending the 2001 and 2003 income tax cuts and reducing the growth rate of government spending (excluding Social Security and Medicare), assuming that government expenditures are cut to avoid dramatic increases in government consumption relative to GDP in comparison to historical norms, would increase investment, employment, and output. However, postponing the implementation of tight spending controls would more than offset the positive benefits of lower tax rates on the size of the economy and leave future generations with fewer resources for private consumption and production.JEL Code: E62, H20, H30, H60The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect those of the Baker Institute for Public Policy or any other organization. This paper was partially written while the author was employed by the Joint Committee on Taxation.