Informed Trading around Merger Announcements: An Empirical Test Using Transaction Volume and Open Interest in Options Market

This paper provides empirical evidence on the level of trading activity in the stock options market prior to the announcement of a merger or an acquisition. Our analysis shows that there is a significant increase in the trading activity of call and put options for companies involved in a takeover prior to the rumor of an acquisition or merger. This result is robust to both the volume of option contracts traded and the open interest. The increased trading suggests that there is a significant level of informed trading in the options market prior to the announcement of a corporate event. In addition, abnormal trading activity in the options market appears to lead abnormal trading volume in the equity market. This finding supports the hypothesis that the options market plays an important role in price discovery.     

Contributing Factors to the Spread of Sexually Transmitted Diseases

A bstract .   Economists have long studied the determinants and effects of income transfers. This article examines an indirect effect of welfare payments on participating individuals: an increase in the incidence of sexually transmitted disease ( STD ) rates.
Several studies have found a significant and positive link between the size of welfare benefits and out-of-wedlock fertility rates. Higher welfare payments reduce the cost of bearing and raising a child, and thus reduce the full cost of engaging in unprotected sex. An unintended consequence of unprotected sex is exposure to contagious diseases. This implies that states with higher welfare payments per child will experience higher rates of STDs.
We test this hypothesis using statewide data on the incidence of three types of bacterial STDs, chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis, for the years 1994 through 1998. The empirical specification is based on the standard microeconomic model of utility-maximizing behavior. The included explanatory variables are demographic proxies reflecting differences in state population characteristics. These characteristics capture unobservable or intrinsically unmeasureable differences in the perceived costs and benefits of engaging in unprotected sex.
The explanatory variable of primary interest is the size of the real welfare payment per recipient. Our empirical results indicate that states with higher real welfare payments are associated with greater rates of STDs.     

Financial Modernization in US Banking Markets: A Local or Global Event?

Abstract:   We test the hypothesis that the passage of the Financial Services Modernization Act (FSMA) of 1999 has spillover effects cross‐nationally, using a sample of US, non‐US transactional (Australian, Canadian, and UK), and relationship (German, Japanese, Dutch, and Swiss) banks. Our results suggest that financial modernization in the US has limited cross‐national effects. We find strong evidence that US banks were affected favorably. Although we detect some evidence of significant reactions by banks in certain countries, a closer examination reveals that the reaction is most likely attributable to events in the respective countries during the event period. We do find, however, that non‐US transactional banks have been more likely to elect financial holding company status compared to relationship banks, suggesting they are positioning themselves to exploit the expanded opportunity set created by the FSMA. Nonetheless, the majority of elections have been made by US banks. In general, the results suggest that the respective banking markets are efficient in filtering events that are largely country‐specific with only limited implications for other international banks.     

The softness of medical production and implications for specifying hospital outputs

This paper considers the implications of an inarticulate medical production function when specifying and interpreting estimated hospital production functions. Lack of scientific knowledge regarding the relationship between medical inputs and outputs results in variations in styles of care, and medical payment contains inefficient production incentives. These production distortions are implicit in reported hospital data. Empirical results of this study provide information regarding the extent and direction of bias resulting from estimating production functions using reported outputs under retrospective cost-reimbursement.     

Effects of an Employee Volunteering Program on the Work Force: The ABN-AMRO Case

One of the new ways used by companies to demonstrate their social responsibility is to encourage employee volunteering, whereby employees engage in socially beneficial activities on company time, while being paid by the company. The reasoning is that it is good for employee motivation (internal effects) and good for the company reputation (external effects). This article reports an empirical investigation of the internal effects of employee volunteering conducted amongst employees of the Dutch ABN-AMRO bank. The study showed that (a) socio-demographic characteristics from employee volunteers markedly differ from those of non-volunteers and community volunteers and (b) employee volunteering seems to have positive effects on attitudes and behavior towards the organization.     

Personality and Saving Behavior Among Older Adults

This study investigates how psychological characteristics influence saving behavior within a sample of 1,380 U.S. preretirees aged 50–70 from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Using the 3M Model of Motivation and Personality as a theoretical basis, structural equation model results revealed that financial self‐efficacy (FSE) directly explains saving behavior and is central to understanding the link between other psychological characteristics and the saving behavior of older adults. Through higher FSE, increased positive affect and reduced negative affect indirectly supported saving behavior. Moreover, the results revealed personality traits indirectly explained saving behavior. Conscientiousness and extroversion indirectly supported saving behavior; whereas openness to experience and neuroticism indirectly undermined saving behavior. This study connects broad personality traits with saving behavior, which provides information about how older adults' psychological composition is related to their saving practices.     

Increasing the relevance of mathematical approaches to demographic history

In this short paper we comment on recent efforts at formally modelling the interplay between demography and cultural evolution. We draw attention to the fact that, although these efforts are to be applauded, much work has already been done in this area, and that this work is being ignored. We build a case for tighter collaboration between different social science disciplines concerned with human behaviour and long-term demography, and argue that mathematical models must be paired with empirical data.     

The role of tax regulation and compensation contracts in the decision to voluntarily expense employee stock options

We show that firms with executive bonuses that qualify for deduction under Internal Revenue Code Section 162(m) were less likely to expense stock option compensation (SOC) in 2002. Additionally, the more likely it is that a qualified firm will incur re-contracting costs, the less likely it is that the firm will expense SOC. CEOs of qualified firms that also expense SOC receive smaller bonuses than CEOs of expensing firms that are not qualified under 162(m), and the lower 162(m) bonuses are not offset by higher SOC. Our results suggest that 162(m) tax incentives are an important determinant of the decision to expense SOC.     

Diversification to mitigate expropriation in the tobacco industry

While it is well established that diversifying acquisitions by large, cash-rich firms destroy shareholder wealth, we document positive abnormal returns to such acquisitions in the tobacco industry. We show that these abnormal returns are associated with proxies for lower expected expropriation costs. Specifically, we show that wealth creation increases in the degree of domestic geographic expansion afforded by the acquisition (increasing tobacco firms’ influence in more political districts) and in the liquidity of tobacco firms’ assets (converting cash to harder-to-expropriate operating assets). We also show that the threat of expropriation constrains payments to shareholders before expropriation becomes certain in 1998.