The neoclassical ambiguity in the specific factor model

An alternative diagrammatic mechanism is developed to illustrate the effect of output price changes on input prices, particularly the return to labour, in a two-good, three-factor specific factor model.     

The impact of retirement on household consumption in Japan

Using monthly data from the Japanese Family Income and Expenditure Survey, we examine the impact of retirement on household consumption. We find little evidence of an immediate change in consumption at retirement, on average, in Japan. However, we find a decrease in consumption at retirement for low income households that is concentrated in food and work-related consumption. The availability of substantial retirement bonuses to a large share of Japanese retirees may help smooth consumption at retirement. We find that those households that are more likely to receive such bonuses experience a short-run consumption increase at retirement. However, among households that are less likely to receive a retirement bonus, we find that consumption decreases at retirement.     

ICT governance: South Africa

Formal ICT governance structures exist although the efficacy of both the regulator and parliamentary oversight committee remain contentious. On the other hand, the Minister of Communications exercises a strong policy oversight that is viewed as not leading to the envisaged growth in competition and investment in the sector. Consumer protection is also weak.     

Evolving and Taking CATNAPS to Negotiation/Problem Stories

In this GDN 2010 meeting commentary, the author presents an overview of CATNAPS (Connectedness And Technology for Negotiation And Problem Solving)—as a technology framework for evolving “right” problems/solutions in individual and group negotiation and problem solving. Although the focus in this commentary is mostly on humans, negotiators (agents) may be humans or computers. We consider taking CATNAPS to negotiation/problem stories meaning applying CATNAPS to various specific problems, negotiation/problem stories.     

Excess demand and price formation during a Walrasian auction

We conduct a detailed analysis of the relationship between excess demand and the convergence of price to equilibrium during a real-world Walrasian auction, paying special attention to the size and speed of the price adjustment. Using data from the Tokyo Grain Exchange (TGE), we first show that because auctions for the various futures contracts occur sequentially, information becomes more evenly dispersed across traders as an auction sequence progresses. Then we show that excess demand is positively correlated with both the eventual price change and the speed with which price adjusts. As information becomes more evenly dispersed, the strength of these relationships weakens. Finally, though excess demand explains a large proportion of the variability of the change in price, it explains only a small proportion of the variability of the speed of adjustment.     

GARCH inadequacy for modelling exchange rates: empirical evidence from Latin America

This article checks for the adequacy of using GARCH models in exchange rate series. Using the Hinich portmanteau bicorrelation test, we find that a GARCH formulation or any of its variants fails to capture the data generating process of the main Latin American exchange rates. Our results highlight the potential of having misleading public policy when estimates are based in GARCH types of models. This article also complements recent similar findings encountered in European and Asian economies.     

中美货币之争：不如休战，来一次卡拉OK!

中美两国正在就人民币汇率问题争论不休,关于人民币升值的问题,将影响双方在世界上各自扮演的角色,并对双方的关系产生深远的影响。     

Public Information Arrival, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Quote Frequency

The mixture of distributions model motivates the role of public information arrival in foreign exchange market dynamics. Public information arrival is measured using Reuters Money-Market Headline News. The exchange rates are high-frequency mark/dollar and yen/dollar quotes. Estimation results suggest that higher than normal public information brings more than the normal quoting activity and volatility. The results have implications for the debate over regulation of the foreign exchange market. Foreign exchange activity is not largely self-generating. Trading is likely providing the function it is meant to provide-adjusting prices and quantities to achieve an efficient allocation of resources.     

ESD: A Formal Consciousness Model for International Negotiation

We develop the Evolutionary Systems Design (ESD) formal consciousness model for international negotiation extending the usual cognitive rationality of formal models to right rationality validated subjectively by cognition, affection, conation, holistically, and spiritually. Two subjective validation tests for right rationality are described. The purpose is to attain right negotiation agreements in international negotiation. Practice and computer implementation are discussed and applications presented. Though the ESD general formal mathematical model is an evolving difference game, in applying it to specific problems mathematical symbols are not normally used, relations between generally familiar sets of elements being expressed by tables (matrices). We believe that ESD can help close the gap between formal modeling and practice of international negotiation.