Minnesota-type adaptive hierarchical priors for large Bayesian VARs

Large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility are increasingly used in empirical macroeconomics. The key to making these highly parameterized VARs useful is the use of shrinkage priors. We develop a family of priors that captures the best features of two prominent classes of shrinkage priors: adaptive hierarchical priors and Minnesota priors. Like adaptive hierarchical priors, these new priors ensure that only ‘small’ coefficients are strongly shrunk to zero, while ‘large’ coefficients remain intact. At the same time, these new priors can also incorporate many useful features of the Minnesota priors such as cross-variable shrinkage and shrinking coefficients on higher lags more aggressively. We introduce a fast posterior sampler to estimate BVARs with this family of priors—for a BVAR with 25 variables and 4 lags, obtaining 10,000 posterior draws takes about 3 min on a standard desktop computer. In a forecasting exercise, we show that these new priors outperform both adaptive hierarchical priors and Minnesota priors.     

Bank Efficiency and Macro-economic Factors: The Case of Developing Countries

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of macro-economic factors on bank efficiency of commercial banks in Asia, Middle East/North Africa, and Africa. To achieve the objective, the stochastic frontier approach (SFA) was used to simultaneously estimate the parameters of the stochastic frontier and the inefficiency model. The results show that the effect of macro-economic factors on bank efficiency differs across region. Cost inefficiency of the commercial banks in the Asian region is negatively related to the real gross domestic product per capita, credit to the private sector, and market concentration but is positively related to trade openness. Banks cost inefficiency in the Middle East/North Africa is negatively related to trade openness but is positively related to market concentration suggesting that banking market in this region should be more open to competition.     

Effect of Money Supply on Real Output and Price in China

Over the past 30 years, China has achieved remarkable long-term economic growth. Using quarterly data, we study the effects of money supply on real output and inflation in China between 1993 and 2008. To this end, we use money supply shocks afler filtering out the expected component of the money supply. Our findings provide evidence supporting the asymmetric effect of positive and negative money supply shocks on real output and inflation in China. That is, real GDP growth in China responds to negative money supply shocks but not positive money supply shocks. In addition, inflation responds to positive money supply shocks but not negative money supply shocks. We conclude that the People＇s Bank of China＇ s policy of steady monetary growth appears to be appropriate. Our study offers important policy implications for China.     

Are there long-run implications of analyst coverage for IPOs?

Analyst coverage has been cited increasingly as an important attribute in the selection of an underwriter for a firm about to go public. However, it has also been alleged that affiliated analysts provide biased research. In this study, we examine these interrelated issues by examining the long-run performance of IPOs with coverage from their managing underwriters in a 1993–2003 sample. We find that (1) analysts’ research coverage from their managing syndicate is not related to long-run performance; (2) long-run performance is not different for firms that receive all-star analyst coverage; and (3) investors are not systematically worse off for following lead underwriter recommendations.     

How and when environmental orientation drives corporate sustainable development in a cross-national buyer–supplier dyad

This study aims at relating the role of environmental orientation to corporate sustainable development within a cross-national buyer–supplier dyad. To this end, it specifically proposes and empirically tests a model delineating how the international buyer's environmental orientation would influence its green supplier development (GSD) activities, then its outsourcing supplier's green product strategies (GPS), and finally total relationship value (TRV) of the entire buyer–supplier dyad. It also examines how supplier overall information technology advancement (SOITA) would further moderate the aforementioned influences. Survey results derived from 202 buyer–supplier dyads have provided empirical support for all the hypothesized relationships of the proposed model. To summarize, the findings show that international buyers' internal and external environmental orientations both serve as a major driver for their GSD, which, in turn, significantly advances outsourcing suppliers' practice of GPS and consequently enhances TRV. Moreover, this study has demonstrated that SOITA exerts a significant and positive moderating effect on the GSD–GPS link. Overall, this study provides important insights into understanding the complex and contingent processes underlying the influence of the international buyer's environmental orientation on the joint performance of the dyad.     

The effect of financial constraints,investment policy,product market competition and corporate governance on the value of cash holdings

This study empirically investigates the value shareholders place on excess cash holdings and how shareholders’ valuation of cash holdings is associated with financial constraints, firm growth, cash‐flow uncertainty and product market competition for Australian firms from 1990 to 2007. Our results indicate that the marginal value of cash holdings to shareholders declines with larger cash holdings and higher leverage. However, firms that are more financially constrained, that have higher growth rates and that face greater uncertainty exhibit a higher marginal value of cash holdings. These findings are consistent with the explanation that excess cash holdings are not necessarily detrimental to firm value. Firms with costly external financing and that also save more cash for current operating and future investing needs find that the market values these cash hoarding policies favourably. Finally, there is limited evidence of an association between various corporate governance measures and the value of cash holdings for a shorter sample period.     

A further analysis of the lead-lag relationship between the cash market and stock index futures market

The intraday lead-lag relation between returns of the MajorMarket cash index and returns of the Major Market Index futuresand S&P 500 futures is investigated. Empirical results showstrong evidence that the futures leads the cash index and weakevidence that the cash index leads the futures. The asymmetriclead-lag relation holds between the futures and all componentstocks, including. those that trade in almost every five-minuteinterval. Evidence indicates that when more stocks move together(market-wide information) the futures leads the cash index toa greater degree. This suggests that the futures market is themain source of market-wide information.     

基于匹配理论的中小企业转型升级研究

文章将中小企业转型升级过程中员工-升级的匹配特性概括为能力匹配和价值匹配,构建了以转型升级感知为前因变量,员工-升级匹配为中介机制以及客户导向作为调节变量的模型,采用偏最小二乘结构方程模型进行分析.研究结果显示:流程升级感知对员工价值匹配和能力匹配均有积极影响;产品升级感知对员工能力匹配则表现为消极影响,但顾客导向会削弱这一负向效应;价值匹配和能力匹配均对员工心理福利和社会福利产生了积极的影响.     

Assimilation of Hong Kong Immigrants in Canada

A flood of emigration from Hong Kong to Canada was observed prior to the handover from Britain back to China in 1997. I pool Canadian Census data from 1991 to 2006 to study the labour market assimilation of Hong Kong immigrants. The findings suggest that these immigrants faced a significant negative wage gap upon entry in comparison with Canadian‐born individuals, and this was larger for cohorts arriving closer to 1997, suggesting a decline in cohort quality. The results also indicate that earnings convergence with the Canadian‐born was slow for the majority of these immigrants.