How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?

This paper develops a theory of optimal fertility behavior under mortality shocks. In an OLG model, young adults determine their optimal fertility, labor supply and life-cycle consumption with both exogenous child and adult mortality risks. We show that a rise in adult mortality exerts an ambiguous effect on both net and total fertility in a general equilibrium framework, while child mortality shocks unambiguously lead to a rise in total fertility, leaving net fertility unchanged. We complement our theory with an empirical analysis using a sample of 39 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the 1980–2004 period, examining the overall effects of the child and adult mortality channels on both total and net fertility. We find child mortality to exert a robust, positive impact on total fertility but no impact on net fertility, whereas a rise in adult mortality is found to negatively influence both total and net fertility. Given the particular demographic profile of the HIV/AIDS epidemic (killing essentially young, active adults), we then conclude in favor of an unambiguous negative effect of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on net fertility in SSA.     

The economic analysis of social norms: A reappraisal of Hayek’s legacy

This paper is organized as follows: first, we show that the reference to the notion of group selection is coherent with the other parts of Hayek’s thought. Second, we develop the idea that recent works in terms of the emergence and evolution of social norms corroborate in part Hayek’s theses in this domain. Finally, we put to the fore some drawbacks in Hayek’s approach and propose means to solve them.

Configurable e-negotiation systems for large scale and transparent decision making

Participatory democracy is one of several conceptions of democracy which strives to create opportunities for all members of a group to contribute to the decision making process. Recent developments in information technologies in general and Internet technologies in particular are affecting the existing democratic mechanisms, hence enabling citizens and organizations to participate widely, efficiently and transparently in the decision making process and, most importantly, to arrive at better decisions faster, through negotiation. E-negotiation systems rely on such technologies to implement protocols ranging from motion raising and voting to auctions, and to make them available on the web for general use. E-negotiation systems can be used for political and societal decision making as well as business dealings within e-government and B2B settings. In order for these systems to fulfill their promise of bringing decision making opportunities to all, we need a structured approach and a configurable framework for designing, implementing and deploying them. The resulting systems should be web-based, easy to use, affordable, traceable, reliable, secure, flexible, efficient, and open for integration with other systems. This paper starts by examining leading research initiatives to devise such a framework and discussing the motivations behind them. We then introduce several design requirements derived from the expectations of e-negotiation systems providers and users. We argue that meeting these requirements fosters a more democratic and efficient decision making process. We also present our approach and vision of a configurable framework for designing, implementing and deploying e-negotiation systems.     

国有企业实施股份制改造中的两个突出问题

安徽省产业结构存在着一些问题 ,如产业结构不尽合理 ,产业结构水平低下 ,这些问题都在一定程度上制约了安徽省经济的发展。因此 ,“十五”期间 ,安徽省应把结构调整摆在经济发展的重要地位 ,具体来说 ,应加强农业的基础地位 ,调整和提升第二次产业 ,积极发展第三次产业。     

论中国经济的繁荣与萧条

本文研究对象是新中国历次繁荣与萧条的运行过程,具体内容是繁荣的形成,繁荣走向萧条,以及萧条如何走向繁荣。     

Crowdfunding for the development of smart cities

In recent years, many cities have experienced new forms of collaboration that have an impact on citizens and entrepreneurs. The integration of this field of study with civic crowdfunding can influence economic growth and community building, which may be beneficial for both policymakers and practitioners alike. Civic crowdfunding is a financial model through which citizens, in collaboration with government and local authorities, fund projects to provide a community service. The development of smart cities is related to civic engagement, empowerment, and participation intended to be part of crowdsourcing or entrepreneurial activities. In this sense, cities play a vital role as drivers of (open) innovation and entrepreneurship. Based on these considerations, this study proposes an explorative and qualitative approach to investigate the civic crowdfunding phenomenon and its ability to promote community development. Our exploratory analysis of six projects highlights the challenges and opportunities of civic crowdfunding for the creation, development, and improvement of more inclusive cities.     

Entrepreneurial motivation and business performance: evidence from a French Microfinance Institution

This article examines the link between entrepreneurial motivation and business performance in the French microfinance context. Using hand-collected data on business microcredits from a Microfinance Institution (MFI), we provide an indirect measure of entrepreneurial success through loan repayment performance. Controlling for the endogeneity of entrepreneurial motivation in a bivariate probit model, we find that “necessity entrepreneurs” are more likely to have difficulty repaying their microcredits than “opportunity entrepreneurs”. However, type of motivation does not appear to make a difference to business survival. We test for the robustness of our results using parametric duration models and show that necessity entrepreneurs experience difficulties in loan repayment earlier than their opportunity counterparts, corroborating our initial findings. Our results are also robust to a sharper analysis of motivation, focusing on unemployment (on the necessity side) and non-pecuniary benefits from success (on the opportunity side).     

Impact of privacy concerns on resistance to smart services: does the ‘Big Brother effect’ matter?

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study is to provide a better understanding of the factors that explain consumer resistance to smart services from a privacy perspective. To this end, an exploratory qualitative study and a quantitative study were carried out. 653 French consumers answered an online questionnaire regarding smart services in the banking sector. Structural equation modelling was used to test the conceptual model. The findings show that information privacy, the unauthorised secondary use of personal information and perceived intrusion have an impact on consumer resistance to smart services. Moreover, our research highlights the major role of the ‘Big Brother effect’ as an antecedent to these various privacy concerns.     

European Agricultural Science Funding: Examining Trends and Prospects

Proper evaluation of the impact of agricultural research requires data on how much has been spent to achieve its desired effects on productivity, efficiency and environmental quality. However, official statistics on aggregate volumes of research expenditure, at both European and national levels, are intermittently available and most data collected for private research are not fully compatible with data for public research. This study in 20 European countries in 2014 defines the different concepts at international level, and assesses coverage across countries, using secondary data and key informant interviews. Coverage is unequal by country and type of measure, the lowest coverage being for agriculture as a socioeconomic objective. We depict recent trends in public agricultural research, which differ by country. We then formulate three policy options and recommendations for their implementation to improve the monitoring of agricultural research investment in Europe: 1) make compulsory in the EU statistical system the collection of statistics on agricultural research expenditure using the same metrics for all sectors of performance; 2) develop a specific survey in the Commission to obtain data directly from research organisations; 3) prepare annual reviews of agricultural research expenditures at Member State level, including both quantitative and qualitative information on agricultural research activities.     

非农就业视角下城镇化对农业机械化的影响*

本文利用我国420个地级市2001—2013年的面板数据，借鉴城乡二元经济理论，研究城镇化对农业机械化的短期作用和动态影响。主要结论有：（1）资源的稀缺性决定了短期内城镇化和农业机械化之间是竞争关系，资源贫乏的中部地区面临着更加矛盾的抉择。（2）从动态来看，中国高速的城镇化进程降低了农业人口密度，农业生产条件的改变促进了农业机械化水平的提高。（3）当经济发展水平提高后，城镇化和农业机械化的短期竞争关系得到缓解，拉动作用减弱。本文的研究结论为更好地理解现行的乡村振兴战略和城镇化战略的关系提供了一个产业互动的视角。