THE TEN COMMANDMENTS FOR OPTIMIZING VALUE-AT-RISK AND DAILY CAPITAL CHARGES

Abstract.  Credit risk is the most important type of risk in terms of monetary value. Another key risk measure is market risk, which is concerned with stocks and bonds, and related financial derivatives, as well as exchange rates and interest rates. This paper is concerned with market risk management and monitoring under the Basel II Accord, and presents Ten Commandments for optimizing value-at-risk (VaR) and daily capital charges, based on choosing wisely from (1) conditional, stochastic and realized volatility; (2) symmetry, asymmetry and leverage; (3) dynamic correlations and dynamic covariances; (4) single index and portfolio models; (5) parametric, semi-parametric and non-parametric models; (6) estimation, simulation and calibration of parameters; (7) assumptions, regularity conditions and statistical properties; (8) accuracy in calculating moments and forecasts; (9) optimizing threshold violations and economic benefits; and (10) optimizing private and public benefits of risk management. For practical purposes, it is found that the Basel II Accord would seem to encourage excessive risk taking at the expense of providing accurate measures and forecasts of risk and VaR.     

Reputation gaps and the performance of service organizations

Links between the reputation of organizations and their financial performance are intuitively attractive to assume, but often difficult to demonstrate convincingly. Gaps between employee and customer perceptions of corporate reputation have traditionally been associated with poor performance. In the context of service business and applying assimilation‐contrast theory, we hypothesize that the nature of such gaps will, in reality, have a differential effect on future revenue depending on the size and valence of the gap. The effects of small gaps should be assimilated by customers, but larger ones have a greater potential of creating a contrast effect resulting in significant increases or decreases in subsequent sales. In businesses where employees have a more positive view of the company reputation than customers, we hypothesize a growth in future sales, and where they have a relatively more negative view, a decline. We test the effects of what we label as reputation gaps in 56 business units drawn from nine service organizations and confirm our hypotheses. Among the implications of our findings are that managing reputation by elevating employee perceptions of a company's reputation above those perceived by its customers holds the potential to enhance future sales. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

完善信息报备机制崔动场外衍生品市场发展

文章在回顾《场外衍生品数据报备和汇总要求报告》（CPSS—IOSCO）的基础上,介绍了交易数据报备机制和报备数据汇总机制建设取得的成果及相关要点,分析了协调各国报备信息库建设步伐存在的难点,提出了对我国建立场外衍生品标准化机制的启示和借鉴。文章认为,我国应在充分参考国际经验的基础上,研究交易报备和数据汇集的方法,参与国际相关标准体系的制定,完善我国交易信息报备机制,推动场外衍生品市场发展。     

时艰更看领导力（上）

金融危机席卷而来。2009年,麦肯锡咨询公司特别采访了多家大公司的14名领导人,请他们反思自己觉得从危机中学到了什么。当然,这次访谈也不想把他们的评论仅仅局限于当前的衰退,还请他们思考了在以前扭亏为盈的转型或危机期间曾经面临的挑战。     

初创战略导向对新创企业存活率的影响机制

新创企业初创阶段的战略导向对其未来存续具有持久影响,但具体影响机理有待论证。采用STROBE六维划分法,连续4年对D&B数据库中的抽样企业进行调研与“健康检查”,基于523家美国新创企业数据, 剖析6种初创战略导向对新创企业存活率的差异化影响机理。结果表明：竞争企图性战略持续消耗组织资源从而增加失败风险;分析性战略提升组织决策质量从而降低失败风险;防御性战略使组织积极运用科学管理方法与技术工具从而增加生存机会;前瞻性战略对新创企业存续没有显著影响;先动性战略推动组织创新从而开拓更佳发展前景;风险承担性战略使组织不断学习、广泛探索、保持领先,最大幅度地提高新创企业存活机率。     

Total factor productivity convergence in German states since reunification: Evidence and explanations

A quarter-century after reunification, labor productivity in the states of eastern Germany continues to lag systematically behind the West. Persistent gaps in total factor productivity (TFP) are the proximate cause; conventional and capital-free measurements confirm a sharp slowdown in TFP growth after 1995. Strikingly, eastern capital intensity, especially in industry, exceeds values in the West, casting doubt on the embodied technology hypothesis. TFP growth is negatively associated with rates of investment expenditures. The stubborn East-West TFP gap is best explained by low concentration of managers, low startup intensity and the distribution of firm size in the East rather than R&D activities.     

Impact of outsourcing on business-to-business marketing: An agenda for inquiry

Increasing globalization has made companies focus more on their outsourcing decisions. Moving beyond the tactical companies have begun to incorporate outsourcing as a strategic weapon in their armory. This article expands on this theme by highlighting the need for understanding this key issue from business marketing and sales perspective and pointing to some interesting research issues on the topic. The article also introduces this special issue, briefly discusses the six special issue articles and provides a framework that integrates their contributions to our understanding of strategic outsourcing.     

Hedge funds and financial stability: Regulating prime brokers will mitigate systemic risks

We review key characteristics of the hedge fund industry, and identify conditions under which this sector can pose a threat to financial stability. Direct regulation of hedge funds that increases transparency does not appear feasible, may create a moral-hazard problem, and may reduce market liquidity. Indirect regulation by prime brokers and market discipline by creditors, counterparties, and investors have been effective in limiting the risks from the hedge fund sector. To reduce systemic risks, more regulation of prime brokers is warranted to avoid competitive dynamics from undermining counterparty risk management practices.     

The impact of the internet upon fundraising

Through research on a sample of the top 2000 charities, the Voluntary Organisations Internet Server (VOIS) revealed the potential for a major initiative to provide the opportunity for voluntary organisations to create a quality brand of information on the Internet by coming together on a collective site. The Internet is an ideal medium for voluntary organisations to get their message across, build relationships and raise funds. VOIS has been designed specifically to facilitate these activities and provide the means to a collective presence. While it is mainly large organisations that are using it at the moment, the Internet represents the opportunity for smaller organisations to have a substantial presence because of its democratic nature. VOIS has utilised the principle of economies of scale in order that all organisations can afford to have a useful presence on the Internet. This paper will examine fundraising activities that are already occurring on the Internet, analyse the strengths of the Internet as a marketing tool, explain how marketers can utilise these strengths and explain how VOIS has tried to facilitate these strengths within the features of its standardised site.