BBC: Facing the future and financing it

Recent publicity on the single European market has concentrated our attention on the impact of Europe on the private sector. Potentially, however, the impact on the public sector will be equally significant. Public sector organisations will be drawn into the process of opening up markets, with consequences for their policy and management that few people yet appreciate.     

A diffusion approximation for the ruin function of a risk process with compounding assets

Abstract

The traditional theory of collective risk is concerned with fluctuations in the capital reserve {Y(t): t ?O} of an insurance company. The classical model represents {Y(t)} as a positive constant x (initial capital) plus a deterministic linear function (cumulative income) minus a compound Poisson process (cumulative claims). The central problem is to determine the ruin probability ψ(x) that capital ever falls to zero. It is known that, under reasonable assumptions, one can approximate {Y(t)} by an appropriate Wiener process and hence ψ(.) by the corresponding exponential function of (Brownian) first passage probabilities. This paper considers the classical model modified by the assumption that interest is earned continuously on current capital at rate β > O. It is argued that Y(t) can in this case be approximated by a diffusion process Y*(t) which is closely related to the classical Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The diffusion {Y*(t)}, which we call compounding Brownian motion, reduces to the ordinary Wiener process when β = O. The first passage probabilities for Y*(t) are found to form a truncated normal distribution, which approximates the ruin function ψ(.) for the model with compounding assets. The approximate expression for ψ(.) is compared against the exact expression for a special case in which the latter is known. Assuming parameter values for which one would anticipate a good approximation, the two expressions are found to agree extremely well over a wide range of initial asset levels.     

Disability Reporting Choices by Married Couples: Evidence from Census Data

The purpose of this paper is to analyze determinants of the decision to self-report health impairments that limit or prevent work. Its particular focus is on joint reporting behavior by married couples, with a view toward potential interdependence of spouses' reporting decisions. The model is based on a large sample of married couples taken from the 1990 Public Use Microdata Sample of the U.S. Census. Empirical analysis is based on a simultaneous probit model of spouses' reports. Results of the analysis show evidence of an association between spouses' reports, after controlling for important background variables. The extent of association appears to be more pronounced among low earners and among older wives.     

Illicit Drug Use,Employment, and Labor Force Participation

Illicit drug use has declined among the U.S. adult population, but national surveys show the majority of illicit drug users are employed. Concern about workplace productivity, absenteeism, and safety has led many employers to establish employee assistance and drug testing programs. Given the sharp interest in workplace interventions, more information is needed about the relationships between drug use and labor market status. This study estimated the probability of employment and labor force participation for different types of drug users using nationally representative data from the 1997 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse. Results strongly indicated that chronic drug use was significantly related (negative) to employment for both genders and labor force participation for males. Furthermore, nonchronic drug use was not significantly related to employment or labor force participation. These findings suggest that workplace policies for illicit drug use should consider chronic or problem drug users apart from light or casual users.     

Identification of technological structures using patent statistics

This paper studies the use of patent statistics in identifying four aspects of technological structure, namely, the potential knowledge pool, cumulativeness, inter-firm homogeneity in technology levels, and the scope of innovations. The firms are sampled from the chemical (CHEM), the computer (COM) and the electrical and electronic (EE) industries worldwide. Using the proxies defined, we find that (i) the contributions of intra-industry spillover are low, at 12%, 10%, and 9% for the three industries respectively; (ii) they can internalize 15%, 19% and 13% of their previous research efforts respectively; and (iii) a positive relationship between knowledge spillover and technology overlap, and between scope of innovation and number of patents being cited in future.     

The transmission mechanism in a changing world

The paper aims to identify those factors that cause changes in the speed and strength of the international transmission of output shocks from the USA to specified European economies. These factors are identified through the use of generalized impulse response functions conditioned on histories defined by an abrupt transition VAR. The chosen transition variables comprise changes in exchange rates, financial prices, international capital flows, trade links and monetary policy instruments. Besides the identification of asymmetric responses, the proposed model is useful in analyzing the strong effect of the recent US recession on the European economies and changes in business cycle synchronization over time. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.