Do economic statistics contain information to predict stock indexes futures prices and returns? Evidence from Asian equity futures markets

This research examines the impact of local and international market factors on the pricing of stock indexes futures in East Asian countries. The purpose of this paper is to present a study of the significant factors that determine the major stock indexes futures’ prices of Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. This study first investigates the relationships between Hang Seng Index Futures, KLCI Futures, SiMSCI Futures, KOSPI Futures, Taiwan Exchange Index Futures and local interest rates, dividend yields, local exchange rates, overnight S&P500 index and a newly constructed index, Asian Tigers Malaysia Index (ATMI). 11 years historical data of stock indexes futures and the economic statistics are studied; 10 years in-sample data are used for testing and developing the pricing models, and 1 year out-of-sample data is used for the purpose of verifying the predicted values of the stock indexes futures. Using simple linear regressions, local interest rates, dividend yields, exchange rates, overnight S&P500 and ATMI are found to have significant impact on these futures contracts. In this research, the next period close is predicted using simple linear regression and non-linear artificial neural network (ANN). An examination of the prediction results using nonlinear autoregressive ANN with exogenous inputs (NARX) shows significant abnormal returns above the passive threshold buy and hold market returns and also above the profits of simple linear regression (SLR). The empirical evidence of this research suggests that economic statistics contain information which can be extracted using a hybrid SLR and NARX trading model to predict futures prices with some degree of confidence for a year forward. This justifies further research and development of pricing models using fundamentally significant economic determinants to predict futures prices.

     

Endogenous Product Differentiation,Market Size and Prices

This paper provides a framework to understand how market size affects firms' investments in product differentiation in a model of monopolistic competition. The theory proposes that consumers' love of variety makes them more sensitive to product differentiation efforts by firms, which leads to more differentiated products in larger markets. The framework also predicts an inverted U ‐shaped effect of trade liberalization on product differentiation, with trade liberalization leading to more differentiated products when starting from autarky but then leading to less differentiated products as the countries approach free trade.     

Optimal constrained investment in the Cramer-Lundberg model

We consider an insurance company whose surplus is represented by the classical Cramer-Lundberg process. The company can invest its surplus in a risk-free asset and in a risky asset, governed by the Black-Scholes equation. There is a constraint that the insurance company can only invest in the risky asset at a limited leveraging level; more precisely, when purchasing, the ratio of the investment amount in the risky asset to the surplus level is no more than a; and when short-selling, the proportion of the proceeds from the short-selling to the surplus level is no more than b. The objective is to find an optimal investment policy that minimizes the probability of ruin. The minimal ruin probability as a function of the initial surplus is characterized by a classical solution to the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation. We study the optimal control policy and its properties. The interrelation between the parameters of the model plays a crucial role in the qualitative behavior of the optimal policy. For example, for some ratios between a and b, quite unusual and at first ostensibly counterintuitive policies may appear, like short-selling a stock with a higher rate of return to earn lower interest, or borrowing at a higher rate to invest in a stock with lower rate of return. This is in sharp contrast with the unrestricted case, first studied in Hipp and Plum, or with the case of no short-selling and no borrowing studied in Azcue and Muler.     

Understanding the police response to fraud: the challenges in configuring a response to a low-priority crime on the rise

ABSTRACT

Previous research has demonstrated the comparative lack of priority fraud receives from government and law enforcement in the UK compared to other serious offences, as well as shortcomings in the overall approach to investigation. This paper examines the current state of affairs in the light of changes aimed at addressing these limitations. It incorporates findings from a national survey of police forces, as well as a local survey of police personnel in three forces supplemented by interviews. The findings suggest that the situation has become more complicated. Many police officers interviewed did not feel that the police response in their own area was effective, and that their colleagues often lacked the appropriate skill sets needed. Moreover, forces were not confident they were recruiting the right people to tackle fraud. The paper has important lessons for policing internationally.     

The relationship between legitimacy,reputation, sustainability and branding for companies and their supply chains

This paper aims at filling a gap that we perceive to exist in the scientific literature as to legitimacy, reputation and sustainability and their interrelationship to corporate and supply chain branding. A series of innovative theoretical frameworks are provided interrelating companies and their value (supply) chains with legitimacy, reputation, and branding which are essential conditions to achieve sustainability and competitive advantage based on dyadic and social context consonance to the benefit of society and all stakeholders involved. An urgently required better understanding of the concepts and their interrelations is enhanced by a synthesized explanatory basis entailing an eclectic mosaic of interdisciplinary theories (institutionalist, neo-institutionalist theories, the viable system approach, isomorphism and identity) to improve corporate and supply chain performance. To better inform managerial practice the theoretical considerations are spiced with case studies among which especially the currently debated supply chain case of the European horse meat scandal is illuminated suggesting concrete managerial cross-functional implications in the food industry. The paper culminates in the call for a newly to-be-established marketing stream we call ‘Sustainable and Curative Marketing’.     

COVID-19’s impact on real estate markets: review and outlook

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management - As symbolized by vacant office buildings, empty shopping malls and abandoned flats in metropolitan areas, the new coronavirus disease 2019 has severely...     

Navigating compromise: How founder authenticity affects venture identification amidst organizational hybridity

Founders of hybrid ventures encounter organizational tensions that can compel compromise in both their organizations' and their own personal values. Such compromises may, in turn, undermine founders' identification with their ventures. In a multi-case study analysis we examine why social entrepreneurs differ in their responses to organizational tensions, both at the firm- and individual-level, and how such differences relate to their venture identification. Specifically, our findings reveal that strategic decisions made in the context of values-based complexity are often accompanied by concerns regarding founder authenticity—that is, judgments about the alignment between founders' actions and the commitments or responsibilities associated with their identities as entrepreneurs. Yet, because founders differ in the basis from which they seek to maintain such alignment, these differences shape both hybridity management and subsequent venture identification. By unpacking such differences, our findings contribute new theory, bridging recent scholarship on founder authenticity with longstanding research on organizational identification and hybrid organizing.