An Econometric Analysis of U.S. Antidumping Sunset Review Decisions

This paper is the first comprehensive analysis of the U.S. antidumping sunset review process required under WTO commitments. The econometric models study determinants of decisions by three U.S. actors: the petitioning industry, the Department of Commerce (DOC), and the International Trade Commission (ITC). Domestic industries facing potential vigorous competition seem to use sunset reviews to maintain current high domestic profits. U.S. governmental institutions use criteria broadly consistent with their legal obligations. Exports involving Chinese firms may face negative bias in the ITC process. JEL no. F1, F13     

International Rent Sharing and Domestic Labour Markets: A Macroeconomic Analysis

Compared to international trade relations relatively little is known about the role foreign direct investment linkages play in the transmission of disturbances from one country to the next. Inspired by the microevidence on profit sharing within multinational corporations and within industries, we investigate for six countries whether a cross-border rent-sharing phenomenon can be identified at the macroeconomic level. The rent-sharing hypothesis implies that an increase in foreign profitability should boost wages and/or employment in the domestic economy. We find corroborative evidence for Belgium, France, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. US labour market conditions, by contrast, are not affected by changes in profitability in other countries. JEL no. E32, F23, F40, J23, J31     

The fertility of the Irish in the United States in 1910

The relatively high marital fertility of the Irish in the United States in the 19th century has long been interpreted as evidence for the persistence of a distinctive Irish culture in the United States. This claim echoes a similar view of Irish-American marriage patterns. Recent work has shown that the marriage patterns of the Irish in the United States were similar to native-born whites with similar occupational and other characteristics. This paper studies the reasons for the high fertility of Irish-Americans in 1910. Irish-born women in that year had much larger families than the typical native-born woman, and little of the difference can be attributed to other characteristics. Second-generation Irishwomen were less distinctive in this regard, although even they differed from the natives primarily because of a different proclivity to have a large family. Our results signal the complexity of immigrant adjustment to a new environment; the Irish largely abandoned one aspect of Irish demographic behavior while clinging to another.     

Overcoming underdevelopment in South Africa's second economy

This paper is a synthesis of the July 2005 Development Report published by the Development Bank of Southern Africa, Human Sciences Research Council and United Nations Development Programme (DBSA, HSRC and UNDP). The Report asks why, if the origins of economic dualism are rooted in the cheap, forced, migrant labour introduced by the mining industry and reinforced during apartheid, does dualism persist under democracy when all the relevant laws and many of the practices of the past have been abolished? The breakdown of apartheid did not immediately translate into improved material conditions for the majority of South Africans: 300 years of colonialism and 50 of internal colonialism had hard-wired a duality into the system. Two worlds, which may be conceptualised as the first and second economies, coexisted: a globally integrated world of production, exchange and consumption, and a constrained world of informality, poverty and marginalisation. This synthesis sheds light on the origin and nature of the ‘second economy’ metaphor, and suggests solutions.     

Development strategy for rural areas

In September 1973, the President of the World Bank, Robert S. McNamara, made a challenging address to the Governors of the Central Banks of the member states of the international Monetary Fund. The main subject in his speech was the problem of poverty particularly in rural areas of developing countries, and the design for a strategy for its abolition.     

Risk analysis of new maize technology in Zaire: a portfolio approach

Risk associated with the adoption of new maize technology and the impact of mandatory cotton production on traditional farmers in the Kasai Oriental Region of Zaire are evaluated within a portfolio context using a quadratic programming model. Seasonal net returns for farm plans including four levels of maize technology in combination with staple food crops are evaluated, with and without mandatory cotton production. The results indicate that cropping systems that include new maize technology are risk-efficient relative to local maize varieties while mandatory cotton production is not risk-efficient at the prevalent price and yield levels in the farming system.     

Stock market efficiency the evidence from FTA indices of eleven major stock markets

Summary This article presents a survey of recent literature on stock market efficiency, with special reference to the US and Dutch stock markets. Additionally, models are specified and estimated for the daily return since 1987 on FTA indices for eleven major stock markets, allowing for non-normality, heteroskedasticity, leverage effects and autocorrelation. The leverage effect and positive autocorrelation are characteristics of some of the indices investigated. The magnitude of the autocorrelation, however, is so small, that no profitable arbitrage opportunities arise and weak-form efficiency of these stock markets is not rejected.