The effects of monetary policy in the Czech Republic: an empirical study

In this paper, we examine the effects of Czech monetary policy on the economy within the vector auto regression (VAR), structural VAR, Bayesian VAR with sign restrictions, and factor-augmented VAR, frameworks. We document a well-functioning transmission mechanism similar to the euro area countries, especially in terms of persistence of monetary policy shocks. Subject to various sensitivity tests, we find that a contractionary monetary policy shock has a negative effect on the degree of economic activity and the price level, both with a peak response after one year or so. Regarding prices at the sectoral level, tradables adjust faster than non-tradables, which is in line with microeconomic evidence on price stickiness. There is no price puzzle, as our data come from a single monetary policy regime. There is a rationale in using the real-time output gap instead of current GDP growth, as using the former results in much more precise estimates. The results indicate a rather persistent appreciation of the domestic currency after a monetary tightening, with a gradual depreciation afterwards.     

Contrasting Models of the Effect of Inflation on Growth

Abstract.  The paper formulates a nesting model for studying the theoretical literature on inflation and endogenous growth. It analyses different classes of endogenous growth models, with different usage of physical and human capital, with different exchange technologies. First, the paper shows that a broad array of models can all generate significant negative effects of inflation on growth. Second, it shows that these models can be differentiated primarily by the fact whether there is a Tobin-type effect of inflation and also whether the inflation–growth effect becomes weaker as the inflation rate rises, a non-linearity, or stays essentially constant over the range of inflation rates. The paper compares these features of the models to empirical evidence as a way to summarize the efficacy of the models.     

Dynamics in transitory and permanent variation of wages in Germany

We employ covariance structure models to decompose the cross-sectional variance of male wages in Germany into its permanent and transitory parts. We find that the steep growth of cross-sectional inequality during the early 2000s is predominantly driven by transitory factors.     

Real Exchange Rate Forecasting and PPP: This Time the Random Walk Loses

This paper brings four new insights into the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) debate. First, we show that a half-life PPP (HL) model is able to forecast real exchange rates better than the random walk (RW) model at both short and long-term horizons. Second, we find that this result holds if the speed of adjustment to the sample mean is calibrated at reasonable values rather than estimated. Third, we find that it is preferable to calibrate, rather than to elicit as a prior, the parameter determining the speed of adjustment to PPP. Fourth, for most currencies in our sample, the HL model outperforms the RW also in terms of nominal exchange rate forecasting.     

Modeling Distribution Channel Dynamics of North American Cars in the Spanish Automobile Industry

Relations between manufacturers and distributors have been the center point of the distribution channel’s management. This study covers the effects of coercive, as well as non-coercive power on intermediary variables such as cooperation and conflict. It will also analyze the effects of cooperation and conflict on American car dealers’ satisfaction and performance in Spain. Due to the small sample size (46 dealers), the model based on causal modeling compelled us to use the optimization method based on the partial least squares (PLS) regression techniques coupled with a bootstrapping to enable some generalization of the results.

The Issue of Governance and the Role of the Regulator: Lessons from the California Deregulation Experiment

The deregulation of the California electricity industry began as a collaborative effort between the regulatory institutions, legislature, the regulated utilities and consumer stakeholders. However, the authorizing legislation failed to define the ongoing role and authority of the principal regulatory institution in the State—the Public Utilities Commission. As a consequence, roles and responsibilities were assumed largely by institutional initiative as opposed to a master plan with the result that competition for authority extended through State and Federal jurisdictions without formal resolution. Under the weight of an inverse relationship of wholesale to retail costs, the wholesale electricity market began to disintegrate. In response, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the California Governor’s Office and the California Legislature began to exert or assert authority over operations and regulation of the market. The result was confusion, increased cost, limited response to extraordinary conditions and ultimately loss of regulatory control by the Public Utilities Commission. Options were available to forestall or avoid the eventual outcome but were not adopted or advocated in time. The lessons learned should help craft future deregulation efforts.     

SIZE-DISTRIBUTION OF EARNINGS AND HOUSEHOLD INCOMES IN SMALL SOCIALIST COUNTRIES

Part I: Availability and meaning of East European distributional statistics are discussed. Part II: Measures of inequality to be used in this study are examined: the Gini coefficient of concentration, though superior to some other single indicators, is found to be an unreliable comparative measure of inequality, and is therefore supplemented by a set of ratios of selected percentiles to the median. Part III: Inequality of full-time gross monthly earnings is measured for (almost) the whole civilian working population and for some subpopulations (selected industries, men, women) in Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia through 1970, in Hungary through 1968: the observed inequality appears to be less than in small capitalist countries, in spite of the reversal of the socialist egalitarian trend in the 'sixties. The main factor of equalization of socialist earnings are small interoccupational and interregional differentials and a very flat age profile. Part IV: The socio-economic structure of households, the size of samples underlying the distributional statistics, and the composition of household “revenues” (wage and salary earnings, agricultural incomes, social security payments, relatively unimportant property incomes, as well as non-income cash flows) are examined. Inequality coefficients are estimated for per capita revenues of all households as well as subpopulations of households in Czechoslovakia and Hungary, and some information is given on the distribution of household incomes in Yugoslavia. Part V: Limits of desirable equalization of earnings are discussed. With very narrowly dispersed short-term earnings, lifetime earnings tend to be rather unequally distributed because of the variation of earning years among occupations. With largely equalized primary incomes, per capita household incomes tend to be more unequally distributed, in spite of massive transfers, because of the varying ratio of earners to dependents within households. The need of income differentials as incentives to work, the probable trade-off between income equality and economic growth, and socialist distributive principles are outlined.