Consumer confidence as a GDP determinant in New EU Member States: a view from a time-varying perspective

This paper offers a pioneer attempt to unveil the time-varying impact of consumer confidence on GDP growth. The empirical analysis is based on a state space model with time-varying coefficients, which is employed on a dataset from 11 New EU Member States. It is shown that the impact of consumer confidence (reflecting the overall uncertainty level in the country) skyrockets in the 2008 Great Recession, providing evidence that the recent crisis was to some extent psychologically governed. After that, the influence of consumer confidence on GDP mostly stabilizes at earlier levels. The EU accession seems not to play an important role in the observed relationship. The obtained conclusions are quite robust across countries and remain intact upon the inclusion of additional control variables in the model. A possible solution for keeping the psychological determinants of the crisis under control is a prompt, coherent, and clearly communicated crisis management policy, which might help preventing a momentous drop of consumer confidence and overall uncertainty.     

Antecedents and outcomes of fashion innovativeness in retailing

Challenging market conditions force the fashion industry to find new ways of introducing new products, adjusting and stimulating unplanned purchases within fashion stores. Fashion innovativeness and visual merchandising play a key role in this challenge. This study examines how fashion innovativeness is related to motivational factors for shopping and actual unplanned purchases in fashion retailing. It also investigates the moderating effect of visual merchandising on the relationship between fashion innovativeness and unplanned purchases. The data, obtained through a consumer survey, were analysed using factor analyses and structural equation modelling. The results show that fashion innovativeness is positively affected by sexual attraction, shopping for recreation, recognition enhancement, and aesthetic expression, and positively influences unplanned purchases. The link between fashion innovativeness and unplanned purchases is moderated by visual merchandising. This study also provides recommendations for retailers on increasing unplanned purchases in their stores using the concept of fashion innovativeness.     

The Role and Current Status of IFRS in the Completion of National Accounting Rules – Evidence from Croatia

Abstract

We examine the changes in Croatian accounting regulation, in the context of 2013/34/EU Directive implementation and analyse indirect effects of IFRS on national reporting regulation for non-listed companies. The main goal is to determine the level of conformity between Croatian accounting rules and IFRS as adopted by EU. Analysis shows that IFRS are used in the great extent as a source for provisions in Croatian Financial Reporting Standards (CFRS). There are only a few major differences between Croatian financial reporting standards and IFRS. However, there are a number of IFRS standards that are considered not to be relevant in the context of CFRS, as CFRS are intended to be used only by SMEs. Nevertheless, the management is permitted to use provisions and guidance from IFRS, if CFRS provisions are not applicable to a certain transaction or event.     

A note on essential smoothness in the Heston model

This note identifies a gap in the proof of Corollary 2.4 in Forde and Jacquier (Finance Stoch., 2011) which arises because the essential smoothness of the family (X _t /t) _t≥1 can fail for the log-spot process X in the Heston model, and it describes how to circumvent the issue by applying a standard argument from large deviation theory.     

How the Subprime Crisis went global: Evidence from bank credit default swap spreads

How did the Subprime Crisis, a problem in a small corner of U.S. financial markets, affect the entire global banking system? To shed light on this question we use principal components analysis to identify common factors in the movement of banks' credit default swap spreads. We find that fortunes of international banks rise and fall together even in normal times along with short-term global economic prospects. But the importance of common factors rose steadily to exceptional levels from the outbreak of the Subprime Crisis to past the rescue of Bear Stearns, reflecting a diffuse sense that funding and credit risk was increasing. Following the failure of Lehman Brothers, the interdependencies briefly increased to a new high, before they fell back to the pre-Lehman elevated levels – but now they more clearly reflected heightened funding and counterparty risk. After Lehman's failure, the prospect of global recession became imminent, auguring the further deterioration of banks' loan portfolios. At this point the entire global financial system had become infected.     

Large Deviations for the Extended Heston Model: The Large-Time Case

We study here the large-time behaviour of all continuous affine stochastic volatility models [in the sense of Keller-Ressel (Math Finan 21(1):73–98, 2011)] and deduce a closed-form formula for the large-maturity implied volatility smile. We concentrate on (rescaled) strikes around the money, which are the most common in practice, and extend the results in Forde and Jacquier (Finan Stoch 15(4):755–780, 2011) and Gatheral and Jacquier (Quant Finan 11(8):1129–1132, 2011).     

Parisian options with jumps: a maturity–excursion randomization approach

This paper introduces an analytically tractable method for the pricing of European and American Parisian options in a flexible jump–diffusion model. Our contribution is threefold. First, using a double Laplace–Carson transform with respect to the option maturity and the Parisian (excursion) time, we obtain closed-form solutions for different types of Parisian contracts. Our approach allows us also to analytically disentangle contributions of the jump and diffusion components for Parisian options in the excursion region. Second, we provide numerical examples and quantify the impact of jumps on the option price and the Greeks. Finally, we study the non-monotonic effects of volatility and jump intensity close to the excursion barrier, which are important for shareholders’ investment policy decisions in a levered firm.     

Variable neighborhood search heuristic for nonconvex portfolio optimization

Abstract

In this article we consider a portfolio optimization problem under multiple real-world constraints, such as: cardinality constraints, tracking error, active share, and turnover. We propose a heuristic based on variable neighborhood search (VNS) that effectively addresses additional constraints that introduce non-convexities. In the VNS-based heuristic, several neighborhood structures are introduced and fast local search is implemented. We develop a VNS portfolio rebalancing framework (VNS-PRF) with two rebalance strategies. Data sets provided by a financial investment firm are used to evaluate the validity and reliability of the proposed VNS-PRF. Computational experiments and different portfolio performance measures indicate that our approach is able to obtain solutions with competitive quality and can be applied on large-scale data sets.     

Winners and losers after 25 years of transition: Decreasing wage inequality in Slovenia

Over the past twenty-five years, wage inequality has fallen in Slovenia, even as it has risen in most developed economies. The rates of return to education and work experience rose and remained high on average. However, rapid increases in the number of college graduates have outpaced the rising relative demand for skill among the youngest labor market entrants. As a result, the youngest cohorts of college graduates have experienced declining returns to education and a downward shift in their occupational distribution, which has not been experienced by older college graduates. These changes coincide with the implementation of the Bologna Reform, which reduced the length of time necessary to complete a bachelor’s degree and contributed to the incentives to attend college. Falling returns to tertiary education contributed to declining within-cohort wage inequality among the young, which was large enough to reduce overall wage inequality.