Carbon taxes and the double dividend hypothesis in a recursive-dynamic CGE model for Spain

A carbon tax is potentially a policy that can reduce CO₂ emissions and mitigate climate risks, at lowest economy-wide costs. We develop a dynamic CGE model for Spain to assess the economic and environmental effects of a carbon tax, and test the double dividend (DD) hypothesis. We simulate the impact of three carbon taxes: €10, €20 and €30 per ton of CO₂. For each tax, four ‘revenue recycling’ scenarios are examined: a reduction of taxes on capital, on labor, on value-added tax, and a scenario in which revenues are not recycled. We find a DD for taxes of €10/ton and lower, within five to seven years of implementation. We estimate an annual CO₂ emissions reduction of around 10% with this tax. Under some circumstances, the DD can be achieved for a tax of €20/ton. In any case, recycling revenues to cut pre-existing taxes reduces costs of imposing carbon taxes.     

Regulation and technological change in the American meat industry

The effects of regulation upon technological change in the American meat industry in the period between 1950 and 1978 are examined in terms of the relationship between three alternative models — neoclassical, X-efficiency, and technological exogeneity —and the behavior of regulatory agencies. The paper is based upon patent data, equipment approvals by the United States Department of Agriculture and interviews with meat equipment and meat processing firms. Each theory was found to account for some of the observed transactions between regulation and technological change. Conversely, no single theory encompasses all observed effects.Regulations have added to the cost of developing new products. Increased uncertainty in the late 1970s over the standards sought by regulatory agencies have similarly increased the uncertainties of the profitability of R&D in selected product lines. This uncertainty was also found to be inducing firms to substitute product development via mergers for their own R&D. The Humane Slaughter Act was the proximate spur for technological advances that lead to a rationalization of production processes. The innovations that resulted from this act and from other regulatory standards highlighted, in accordance with the X-efficiency framework, technological opportunities that existed prior to and independent of changes in regulatory standards. Much of the momentum for technological change in the industry was shaped by an initial set of technological advances and the subsequent working through of production bottlenecks in an interrelated production system. These advances were largely independent of and unaffected by regulatory standards.Indeed, there is reason to believe that regulatory standards may themselves have an element of endogeneity in terms of the feasible set of best practice techniques. Thus at any particular time, technological change may serve to generate a production frontier towards which a regulatory agency might seem to propel an industry.Overall, our judgment is that regulation had little discernible impact on the pace of technological change related to the production and distribution of ground beef in the period between 1950 and 1978. If there has been any net effect, regulation probably served more to stimulate than to inhibit technological change.     

Editors’ note

Portuguese Economic Journal -     

Economic integration,economic crises and economic cycles in Mexico

This article analyzes the peculiarity of the dynamics of economic fluctuations of the Mexican economy, within the framework of its integration with the US and Canada; the article demonstrates how the Mexican economy make endogenous the macroeconomic crises from the USA (2001 and 2007), and how the business cycles of both countries became more aligned to each other.Based on the heterodox economic theory of crises and cycles, we check the “empirical law of economic dynamics” of the Mexican capitalist system according to the logic of the multiplier–accelerator theory that allowed us to study the dynamics of business cycles for the period of the study (1993–2013). To do this, we construct and estimate a stationary VAR model and utilize the Granger causality tests and quarterly data.     

An Investigation of the Relationship between Use of International Accounting Standards and Source of Company Finance in Germany

This study examines the relationship between use of international accounting standards and companies’ source of finance. We investigate the proposition contained in Nobes’ (1998) model that postulates outsider companies (those with a higher level of public finance) in weak equity–outsider markets (capital markets where public equity finance is not the dominant source of finance) are more likely to change their type of accounting system from one focused on information for creditors and tax authorities to one that meets the needs of external financiers. We found strong support for Nobes’ model. Using 408 German listed companies at 1999, we observed that companies with more outsider finance (the proportion of shares held by outsiders and the presence of public debt) were more likely to use international standards (U.S. GAAP or IAS). The results indicate the importance of controlling for source of finance at the company rather than country level in cross‐country studies investigating the benefits of adoption of international standards.     

Exploring technology paths: The development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden 2007-2020

By using socio-technical scenarios, we investigate how present policy choices may affect the development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden. One important choice for policy lies in the balance between general tax exemptions stimulating the market for alternative fuels, and funding of research and development more directly promoting new technology. The implications of this choice are illustrated with four diverging development paths until 2020. In the market-oriented scenarios, we illustrate consequences of breaking the dominance of entrenched technologies and demonstrating a growing market potential for alternatives, but also the risks with a large focus on first generation renewable fuels. In the technology-oriented scenarios, we point out the value of keeping variety among niches in this stage of the transition. In conclusion, if policy is implemented without taking the dynamic forces within the system into account, there is a risk that any measure leads the system into a dead end. But if policy strives to balance the development in different parts of the technological system while making use of various prevailing forces of change, a multitude of different efforts can contribute to the development of a more sustainable transport system.     

Feature selection methods involving support vector machines for prediction of insolvency in non‐life insurance companies

We propose two novel approaches for feature selection and ranking tasks based on simulated annealing (SA) and Walsh analysis, which use a support vector machine as an underlying classifier. These approaches are inspired by one of the key problems in the insurance sector: predicting the insolvency of a non‐life insurance company. This prediction is based on accounting ratios, which measure the health of the companies. The approaches proposed provide a set of ratios (the SA approach) and a ranking of the ratios (the Walsh analysis ranking) that would allow a decision about the financial state of each company studied. The proposed feature selection methods are applied to the prediction the insolvency of several Spanish non‐life insurance companies, yielding state‐of‐the‐art results in the tests performed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Going overboard? On busy directors and firm value

The literature disagrees on the link between so-called busy boards (where many independent directors hold multiple board seats) and firm performance. Some argue that busyness certifies a director’s ability and that such directors are value enhancing. Others argue that “over-boarded” directors are ineffective and detract from firm value. We find evidence that (1) the disparate results in prior work stem from differences in both sample composition and empirical design, (2) on balance the results suggest a negative association between board busyness and firm performance, and (3) the inclusion of firm fixed effects dramatically affects the conclusions drawn from, and the explanatory power of, multivariate analyses. We also explore alternative empirical definitions of what constitutes a busy director and find that commonly used proxies for busyness perform well relative to more complex alternatives.