Neural Networks for Forecasting: An Introduction

Neural networks are nonlinear mapping structures based on the study of the human brain. They have been shown to be universal and highly flexible junction approximators to any data-generating process. Therefore, they are powerful models for forecasting purposes, especially when the underlying data-generating processes are unknown. However, the appropriate design of the network's architecture and learning rules are crucial for obtaining satisfactory results. This study discusses the scope and limitations of neural networks for forecasting problems and provides an example by designing a neural network for forecasting. It is argued that statistical theory can offer some suggestions for designing an optimal network architecture. An example comparing a neural network and ARIM model for forecasting weekly corn prices 1974 through 1993 is provided. Results show the neural network model to be more accurate than the ARIMA.     

Book Reviews

The first review describes a book devoted to the value and conduct of customer visits. The reviewer recommends it as especially valuable for practitioners in firms producing goods and services for business-to-business markets. The second review covers a book devoted to the integration of process design and development. Our reviewer finds that the book provides valuable coverage of an important but frequently overlooked aspect of product development. The third review covers a book of particular value to manufacturers. Although lacking in specific examples, the authors' experience is persuasive in addressing key issues that overlap points covered in the book discussed in the preceding review. The fourth review examines a book about competitive positioning. The book has value for those needing an introduction to this important topic. This issue also reviews two books of special interest to academics teaching and conducting research in the area of product innovation. The first offering is essentially a comprehensive review of the growing literature on how technology can improve collaborative work among individuals or groups. It covers theoretical foundations, conceptual paradigms, empirical research to date, and an agenda for future research. The next book is an advanced but relatively user-friendly text covering all facets of the new product development process. It is loaded with examples and cases and draws on a wide range of concepts and methodologies from the marketing and general management literature.     

Bringing Culture to Macroeconomics

A two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed to examine the interaction between the cultural and noncultural sectors of the economy. It stresses three aspects of cultural economics that have been much discussed in the literature: (i) the productivity lag in the production of cultural goods, described by Baumol and Bowen (1996); (ii) the role of cultural capital in production; and (iii) the treatment of cultural goods as an acquired taste along the lines of Becker’s notion of positive rational addiction. The results suggest that the more significant the role played by cultural capital in the economy, the greater will be the growth rates of output in both sectors of the economy. The model is suggestive of future research into the importance of the macroeconomy on the cultural sector, and the potential importance of the cultural sector on the macroeconomy.     

Business and the Public Affairs of Slavery: A Discursive Approach of an Ethical Public Issue

This article aims at understanding how “ethical public issues” are created, and dealt within a public arena. Here, we view ethical public issues as social constructs, which are the results of issue framing contests. Such an approach will enable us to understand how ethical public issues emerge and are shaped by strategizing actors (including firms, NGOs, the media, and governments), in an attempt to impose their own definition and preferred solution to the issue. We also propose key factors which explain the success of a framing attempt, and evidence of such success. The empirical case of the labor conditions in West Africa’s cocoa industry is used to illustrate this theoretical framework and methodological approach.