PROJECTION MODELS FOR U.K. FOOD AND AGRICULTURE*

Successful policy planning depends to a large extent on being able to predict the consequences of alternative measures. In the case of agriculture, it is important to know how the future pattern of supply and demand in this sector will be affected by government action on specific issues such as farm price support, and by expected trends in macro-economic variables such as national incomes and population. This paper illustrates the application of a model of U.K. agriculture to the projection of changes in the production and consumption of food and agriculture products between now and 1975. The demand projections show the effect of important levies, and of joining the E.E.C, on future expenditure on food, while the supply projections show how the output of a number of agricultural commodities will be affected by adjusting farm prices towards E.E.C. levels.     

Using Limited Information to Support the Decision to Launch a New Product in the Fruit Juice Market: A Teaching Case Study

Fresh Juice Incorporated (FJI) is in the process of determining whether it should launch a new fruit juice, Genetically Enhanced (GE) Juice. The GE Juice meets consumers' demands for a tasty, nutritious product and it would be the first new juice product in the last fifteen years. Before FJI decides to launch GE Juice, it must analyze the uncertainty surrounding market size, market share, and price of GE Juice. Finally, if FJI decides to launch GE Juice, then they must decide if they will bottle the juice themselves or outsource this process. This case teaches students how to discuss the strategic implications of launching a new product and develop a net present value and financial feasibility simulation model given limited information.     

复杂性管理策略:关注整体性

复杂性管理的策略首先要关注和认识复杂系统的整体性,这要通过关注系统的结构、多元化的视角、容忍模糊性和不确定性、借助直觉等手段来达到。在关注和认识整体性的基础上,需要进一步维护和促进复杂系统的整体性,这需要通过保护系统的自组织、创造自组织环境条件、发现和维护序参量、鼓励多元化以及与环境相协调来达成。     

Transaction costs and crop marketing in the communal areas of Impendle and Swayimana,KwaZulu-Natal

High transaction costs are detrimental to the efficient operation or existence of markets for inputs and outputs. The cost of information and the costs associated with the search for trade partners, the distance to formal markets and contract enforcement are likely to influence the marketing of food crops. This study hypothesises that the level of income generated from food-crop sales by small-scale farmers in the Impendle and Swayimana districts of KwaZuluNatal is influenced by transaction costs and certain household and farm characteristics. Regression analysis shows that the depth of marketing methods is significantly influenced by transaction cost proxies, such as cooperation with large commercial farmers and ownership of means of transport. Results from a block-recursive regression analysis show that the level of crop income generated is determined by the depth of marketing methods, the size of allocated arable land and off-farm income. Households with lower transaction costs, sizeable allocated land and off-farm income can be expected to generate higher income from food crops. Investment in public goods such as roads, telecommunications and an efficient legal system (to uphold commercial contracts), as well as farmer support services (input supply, extension, marketing information and research), would probably raise farm and non-farm income by reducing transaction costs. This would increase the effective demand for locally produced goods and services, thus contributing to rural employment and livelihoods within rural communal areas.