Using a functional approach to test trending volatility in the price of Mexican and international agricultural products

In this article, we extend the traditional GARCH(1,1) model by including a functional trend term in the conditional volatility of a time series. We derive the main properties of the model and apply it to all agricultural commodities in the Mexican CPI basket, as well as to the international prices of maize, wheat, swine, poultry, and beef products for three different time periods that implied changes in price regulations and behavior: before the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA; 1987–1993), post‐NAFTA (1994–2005), and commodity supercycle (2006–2014). The proposed model seems to adequately fit the volatility process and, according to heteroscedasticity tests, also outperforms the ARCH(1) and GARCH(1,1) models, some of the most popular approaches used in the literature to analyze price volatility. Our results show that, consistent with anecdotal evidence, price volatility trends increased from the period 1987–1993 to 1994–2005. From 1994–2005 to 2006–2014, trends decreased but the persistence of volatility increased for most products, especially for international commodities. In addition, we identify some agricultural products such as avocado, beans, and chicken that, due to their increasing price volatility trends in the 2006–2014 period, may present a risk for food inflation in the short run.     

Institutional changes, wars and stock market risk in an emerging economy: evidence from the Israeli stock exchange, 1945–1960

In an effort to understand the determinants of economic growth in an emerging economy, we analyze the effects of institutional reforms, wars and political events on the risk level of the Israeli stock market between 1945 and 1960. We find that the anticipation of wars did not have any effect but the end of skirmishes actually raised the risk on the stock market. Domestic political instability also increased the stock market risk. Finally we find that most legal reforms did not matter much.

Making EU Trade Agreements Work: The Role of Rules of Origin

A key element of the EU's free trade and preferential trade agreements is the extent to which they deliver improved market access and so contribute to the EU's foreign policy objectives towards developing countries and neighbouring countries in Europe, including the countries of the Balkans. Previous preferential trade schemes have been ineffective in delivering improved access to the EU market since only a small proportion of the available preferences have actually been utilised. The main reason for this is probably the very restrictive rules of origin that the EU imposes, coupled with the costs of proving consistency with these rules. If the EU wants the ‘Everything but Arms’ agreement and free trade agreements with countries in the Balkans to generate substantial improvements in access to the EU market for products from these countries then it will have to reconsider the current rules of origin and implement less restrictive rules backed up by a careful safeguards policy..     

When the Former CEO Stays on Board: The Role of the Predecessor’s Board Retention for Product Innovation in Family Firms

Understanding product innovation in family firms is an important research endeavor given the economic predominance of those firms, their idiosyncrasies, and the importance of constant renewal for those firms to achieve transgenerational survival. Recently, family firm research has highlighted the role of next-generation chief executive officers (CEOs; i.e., successors) who are often seen as drivers for innovating a family firm’s products. However, prior research has typically neglected that predecessors, who are often portrayed as less willing to introduce product innovation, frequently remain involved postsuccession through occupying board positions and thus still substantially influence the decision-making processes and outcomes of family firms, such as product innovation. As a result, our understanding of the role of predecessors and their postsuccession involvement in family firms’ product innovation remains unclear. Building on stakeholder salience theory and on insights from the literature on innovation and succession in family firms, we develop hypotheses about how and under which conditions the predecessor’s board retention affects product innovation in family firms after succession. Building on more than 200 family firm CEO succession cases in small- and medium-sized, privately owned family firms, our results reveal that the predecessor’s board retention negatively affects product innovation. This negative effect is strengthened with increasing involvement of the predecessor in the successor selection process, and it is offset in the case of family succession. Our findings contribute to the emerging stream of research on family firm succession and product innovation and provide important implications for practice.     

Heterogeneity in Labour Supply Responses: Evidence from a Major Tax Reform

We use a large and rich administrative household panel data set to estimate labour supply responses for a large number of subgroups in the Netherlands. The identification of the parameters benefits from a major tax reform in the data period. We uncover large differences in behavioural responses. In particular, we find differences in labour supply responses between households with and without children that are much bigger than suggested by previous studies that had to pool these household types in the estimation of preferences. An efficient tax‐benefit system should take the substantial heterogeneity in behavioural responses into account.     

Small business tax policy and informality: evidence from Georgia

Using a panel of administrative data and regression discontinuity analysis, this paper examines how the introduction of preferential tax regimes for Georgian micro- and small businesses in 2010 affected formal firm creation and tax compliance. The results show that the new tax regime for micro-businesses increased the number of newly registered firms by 27–41 % below the eligibility threshold during the first year of the reform, but not in subsequent years. We do not find an effect of the new tax regime for small businesses on formal firm creation in any year. Policy makers are often also concerned about abuse risks stemming from differentiated tax treatment of micro- and small businesses. The analysis in this paper reveals reduced tax compliance among small taxpayers for multiple years after the reform and among micro-business taxpayers only during the first year of the reform.     

A contemporary justice perspective on dual ladders for R&D professionals

Research and development (R&D) professionals play a key role in companies' innovation performance. Whereas prior research has indicated the potential benefits of dual ladder career systems to retain and motivate R&D professionals, there is a lack of knowledge regarding the design properties of dual ladders that facilitate such positive effects. The purpose of this study is to address this research gap by exploring how organizations can design dual ladders to enhance R&D professionals' organizational commitment and career satisfaction. Drawing on contemporary justice theory, we point to two factors integral for the successful application of dual ladders: the perceived equality of the technical ladder and the transparency of the dual ladder. These factors are related to R&D professionals' organizational commitment and career satisfaction. Furthermore, this study investigates whether these relationships are moderated by R&D professionals' age and self‐directedness in career management as well as firm size. The hypotheses are tested in a cross‐level study with 9 heads of R&D departments, 32 human resource managers, and 382 R&D professionals from 32 organizations. Based on the analyses, this study finds positive relationships between the perceived equality and the transparency of the dual ladder with R&D professionals' organizational commitment and career satisfaction. In addition, the findings show that the effects of the perceived equality of the technical ladder on R&D professionals' career satisfaction are weaker at high levels of self‐directed career management. The study contributes by developing theory on the consequences of dual ladders' design properties and moderating influences thereon. Thus, this research has implications for the literature on innovation management by expanding the knowledge on the interplay between career management and the human side of innovation.     

Services Linkages and the Value Added Content of Trade

Working with a set of global social accounting matrices spanning intermittent years from 1992 to 2011, this paper examines the services embodied in trade on a value added basis. Data include not only the direct and indirect contribution of services to value added contained in a given country's exports, but also the extent to which third‐country value added in services, through intermediate linkages of imported goods and services, is also embodied in production and trade. Our data indicate, in line with previous findings, that the ratio of value added to gross trade has been decreasing both for goods and for services, which is consistent with growing vertical production fragmentation. On the other hand, while value added in goods sectors including indirect exports is less than the gross value of exports, in services, it is greater, highlighting the service intensity of trade.     

Gender differences in the impact of banking services: evidence from Mexico

This paper examines the effects of providing financial services to low-income individuals on entrepreneurial activity, employment, and the income levels of men and women. We exploit cross-time and cross-municipality variation in the opening of Banco Azteca in Mexico to measure these effects with a difference-in-difference strategy. This bank opened over 800 branches simultaneously in 2002, focusing on low-income clients. Our results show that this led to an increase in the number of informal business owners among men and to an increase in wage-earning opportunities for women. Average income levels also increased, with this increase being twofold higher for women than for men.