Empirical Bayes analysis of log-linear models for a generalized finite stationary Markov chain

This article presents the empirical Bayes method for estimation of the transition probabilities of a generalized finite stationary Markov chain whose ith state is a multi-way contingency table. We use a log-linear model to describe the relationship between factors in each state. The prior knowledge about the main effects and interactions will be described by a conjugate prior. Following the Bayesian paradigm, the Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators relative to various loss functions are obtained. These procedures are illustrated by a real example. Finally, asymptotic normality of the empirical Bayes estimators are established.     

Inference for the two-parameter bathtub-shaped distribution based on record data

Here we consider the record data from the two-parameter of bathtub-shaped distribution. First, we develop simplified forms for the single moments, variances and covariance of records. These distributional properties are quite useful in obtaining the best linear unbiased estimators of the location and scale parameters which can be included in the model. The estimation of the unknown shape parameters and prediction of the future unobserved records based on some observed ones are discussed. Frequentist and Bayesian analyses are adopted for conducting the estimation and prediction problems. The likelihood method, moment based method, bootstrap methods as well as the Bayesian sampling techniques are applied for the inference problems. The point predictors and credible intervals of future record values based on an informative set of records can be developed. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the so developed methods and one real data set is analyzed for illustrative purposes.     

TD-LTE抢占无线全新商机

如今,为了努力满足用户对移动数据日益增长的需求,大部分运营商的网络和频段都在满负荷运行。据相关数据显示,2010年用户每月使用的数据流量已经超过了5GB。由于数据增长的关键驱动因素——smartphone的普及率在全球仍低于20%,运营商预计用户每月使用的数据流量仍将继续增长。因此,如何充分利用自身的频谱资源、开发包括TD-LTE在内的不同技术选择的潜力,就成为运营商极为关注的重要课题。     

The demand for medical care services: evidence from Kuwait based on households’ out-of-pocket expenses

This article used a data set containing information on 1267 households from Kuwait to investigate the determinants of demand for medical care services by examining households’ out-of-pocket expenses. To deal with the problems associated with households’ health expenditure data, a two-part model (TPM) was estimated. Given Kuwait’s demographic composition, the model was estimated for full sample, nationals only and expatriates only. Prior to estimating the model, tests were conducted to select a transformation that reduces problems associated with heteroscedasticity and non-normality of the errors. In addition, tests were performed to determine if differences in the estimated coefficients across population groups were statistically significant.     

Economic Targeting of Agricultural Beneficial Management Practices to Address Phosphorus Runoff in Manitoba

The mechanisms used to deliver agricultural beneficial management practices (BMPs) can influence the performance of these policies. Research has suggested that agri‐environmental instruments targeted based on specific economic or environmental characteristics can improve policy performance. Using a case study approach, we evaluate the relative performance of different mechanisms to target subsidized water retention pond BMPs to reduce phosphorus (P) runoff in an agriculture dominated subwatershed within the Lake Winnipeg watershed in southern Manitoba. The water retention pond BMPs were targeted based on estimated establishment costs (cost targeting), total phosphorus removal from surface water (benefit targeting), and pond‐specific benefit–cost ratios. The targeting was simulated using predictions of retention pond‐specific P removal from an adapted hydrology model and site‐specific pond construction and land opportunity costs assembled in a geographic information system database. Targeting of water retention pond BMPs has an impact on the cost effectiveness of the policy delivery with benefit–cost targeting being the most cost‐effective approach. Water retention ponds providing higher P removal at lower cost were smaller in size and on land previously used for the production of lower value crops. Le ciblage économique des pratiques de gestion bénéfiques en agriculture pour remédier au ruissellement du phosphore au Manitoba Les mécanismes utilisés pour livrer des pratiques de gestion bénéfiques (PGB) peuvent influencer la performance de ces politiques. Des études suggèrent que le ciblage d'instruments agroenvironnementaux basé sur des caractéristiques économiques ou environnementales précises peut améliorer la performance des politiques. Au moyen d'études de cas, nous évaluons la performance relative de divers mécanismes pour cibler les PGB des bassins de rétention d'eau subventionnés pour réduire le ruissellement de phosphore (P) dans un sous‐bassin du bassin du Lac Winnipeg au sud du Manitoba. Les PGB du bassin de rétention des eaux ont été ciblées en fonction des coûts estimés d'établissement (ciblage des coûts), de l′élimination totale du phosphore de la surface de l'eau (ciblage des bénéfices), et des ratios avantages‐coûts liés au bassin. Le ciblage fut simulé au moyen de prédictions du taux de suppression de P spécifique à chaque bassin de rétention obtenues à partir d'une adaptation d'un modèle hydrologique et d'une base de données d'un système d'information géographique (SIG) contenant les sites de chaque bassin de rétention et le coût d'opportunité du terrain. Le ciblage des PGB des bassins de rétention d'eau a un impact sur la rentabilité de la mise en ?uvre de politiques, le ciblage coût‐avantages étant l'approche la plus rentable. Les bassins de rétention d'eau ayant le plus haut taux d'élimination de P à moindre coût s'avéraient plus petits et sur des terrains ayant servi, auparavant, à la production de cultures de moindre valeur.     

Crowding standards at Petra Archaeological Park: a comparative study of McKercher's five types of heritage tourists

To achieve sustainability in heritage tourism, tourists should be placed at the heart of the management and planning processes. Indicators and standards-based frameworks were developed in the field of outdoor recreation management to manage and measure crowding and other problematic issues in parks and related areas. Using normative theory and visual research methods, this article aims to examine crowding standards of tourists at Petra Archaeological Park, and compare these standards between the types of heritage tourists suggested by a model developed by Bob McKercher. Results showed that tourists’ acceptability levels go down with an increasing number of tourists, and tourists who are highly motivated to visit heritage sites (i.e. purposeful and sightseeing heritage tourists) had the most restrictive acceptable number of tourists at the park. The normative standards formulated in this article provided a guidance to manage crowding at Petra.     

Application of ANFIS to exchange rate forecasting

The need of exchange rate forecasting in order to preventing its disruptive movements has engrossed many policy-makers and economists for many years. The determinants of exchange rate have grown manifold making its behavior complex, nonlinear and volatile so that nonlinear models have better performance for its forecasting. In this study the accuracy of ANFIS as the nonlinear model and ARIMA as the linear models for forecasting 2, 4 and 8 days ahead of daily Iran Rial/∈ and Rial/US$ was compared. Using forecast evaluation criteria we found that nonlinear model outperforms linear model in all three horizons.