CONDITIONAL HETEROSKEDASTICITY AND THE WEEKEND EFFECT IN S&P 500 INDEX FUTURES

Conflicting results have been reported regarding the existence of a weekend effect in S&P 500 index futures. Given the numerous evidence in recent research that asset returns are affected by conditional heteroskedasticity and have fat-tailed distributions, this paper re-examines the existence of a weekend effect in S&P 500 index futures by using a GARCH model. The results generated by the new methodology support the conclusion of Cornell (1985) that there is no weekend effect in S&P 500 index futures.     

Book Reviews

Howard Dick, The Indonesian Interisland Shipping Industry: An Analysis of Competition and Regulation, Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 1987, pp. 217. Paper: US$15.00; Cloth: US$23.00.

Anne Booth, Agricultural Development in Indonesia, Sydney, Wellington and London: Allen and Unwin, 1988, pp. 295 + iv.

Arthur van Schaik, Colonial Control and Peasant Resources in Java, Amsterdam; University of Amsterdam, Institute For Social Geography, 1986, pp. 210.

Joan Hardjono, Land, Labour and Livelihood in a West Java Village, Jogyakarta: Gadjah Mada University Press, 1987.

W. Röll and A. Leemann, Agrarprobleme auf Lombok: Untersuchungen zur Wirtschafts- und Sozialstruktur in Nusa Tenggara Barat, Indonesien (Agricultural Problems on Lombok: Studies of Economic and Social Structure in West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia), Hamburg: Institut Für Asienkunde, 1987, pp. 300.

Hal Hill (ed.), Unity and Diversity: Regional Economic Development in Indonesia Since 1970, Singapore: Oxford University Press, 1989, pp. 610 + xxx. Cloth: A$65.00.

C. P. Timmer (ed.). The Corn Economy of Indonesia, Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987, pp. 302. Cloth: US$32.95.

Thee Kian Wie, Industrialisasi Indonesia: Analisa dan Catalan Kritis (Indonesian Industrialisation: Analysis and Critical Notes), Jakarta: Pustaka Sinar Harapan, 1988, pp. 276.

David Joel Steinberg (ed.), In Search of Southeast Asia: A Modern History, Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press, 2nd Ed., 1987, pp. 590 + xi.

Geoffrey B. Hainsworth, Innocents Abroad or Partners in Development? An Evaluation of Canada-Indonesia Aid, Trade and Investment Relations, Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Field Report Series No. 15, 1986, pp. 100

BRIEFLY NOTED: Ronald G. Petocz (Compiler), The Ecology of Irian Jaya: A Preliminary Bibliography, Halifax N.S., Canada: School For Resource and Environmental Studies, Dalhousie University, 1988.     

Empirical Investigation of the Ability of Sensitivity of Stock Prices to Earnings News in Predicting Earnings Management and Management Forecast Errors

This paper presents an evidence that a firm’s Sensitivity of Stock Price to Earnings News (SSPEN), as measured by surplus stock demand over its supply, affects on incentives to manage earnings and, in turn, Management Forecast Errors (MFE). In particular, we find a tendency for firms rated a Sell (Buy) to engage more (less) frequently in extreme, income-decreasing Earnings Management (EM), indicating that they have relatively stronger (weaker) incentives to create accounting reserves especially in the form of earnings baths than other firms. In contrast, firms rated a Buy (Sell) are more (less) likely to engage in earnings management that leaves reported earnings equal to or slightly higher than management forecasts. The result of empirical evidence from Iranian firms in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) showing the existence of a meaningful relationship between SSPEN and EM. Generally, SSPEN can be used to predict EM and Forecast Errors (FEs).     

Political institutions and government spending behavior: theory and evidence from Iran

This study examines how the quality of political institutions affects the distribution of the government budget in Iran. We first introduce a mechanism through which democracy can shift government expenditure from national defense (military) to productivity-enhancing public spending (e.g., education). Using impulse response functions and a variance decomposition analysis on the basis of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, our results imply that the response of military spending to an improvement (a deterioration) of democratic institutions is negative (positive) and statistically significant, whereas that of education spending is positive (negative) and significant. Our results are robust to other indicators of political institutions, different orderings of variables in the VAR, and alternative specifications of government spending categories.     

A Market Efficiency Comparison of Islamic and Non-Islamic Stock Indices

This article examines the martingale difference hypothesis (MDH) and the random walk hypothesis (RWH) for nine conventional and nine Islamic stock indices: Asia-Pacific, Canadian, Developed Country, Emerging, European, Global, Japanese, UK, and United States. It investigates whether Islamic stock indices are more, less, or as efficient as their conventional counterparts. We test four sub-periods of bullish and bearish stock markets, together with the financial meltdown and its recovery, over the period 1997–2012. We use the Escanciano and Lobato’s (2009) automatic portmanteau test (AQ) and Deo’s (2000) test for the MDH. We also apply the automatic variance ratio test (AVR) developed by Choi (1999) and Kim (2009) for the RWH. Over the period from 1997 to 2012, we find that three conventional indices (Europe, Japan, and UK) are efficient, but that none of the Islamic indices are efficient in these markets. During the recent financial crisis, our results indicate slightly more efficiency for the Islamic indices than their conventional counterparts. Our study finds that overall the conventional indices are more efficient than their Islamic counterparts. Nevertheless, during periods of general downturns the Islamic indices have shown the same level of efficiency as their counterparts. Furthermore, it appears that during the last two sub-periods under study, the Islamic indices have moved toward efficiency, displaying the same level of efficiency as their counterparts.     

On the residual lifetime of coherent systems with heterogeneous components

The residual lifetime is of significant interest in reliability and survival analysis. In this article, we obtain a mixture representation for the reliability function of the residual lifetime of a coherent system with heterogeneous components in terms of the reliability functions of residual lifetimes of order statistics. Some stochastic comparisons are made on the residual lifetimes of the systems. Some examples are also given to illustrate the main results.     

Airline Travelers' Causal Attribution of Service Failure and Its Impact on Trust and Loyalty Formation: The Moderating Role of Corporate Social Responsibility

This study examines airline travelers' causal attribution (stability and controllability) and its impact on trust and loyalty formation and investigates the moderating role of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in this process. Based on a literature review, theoretical relationships between stability, controllability, CSR, trust, and loyalty were derived, and the moderating effects of CSR on relationships between stability/controllability and trust/loyalty were examined. To empirically test these theoretical relationships, quantitative data were collected from 271 airline passengers who experienced a service failure in the past year. The results provide support for effects of stability and controllability on trust as well as the effect of stability on loyalty. In addition, the perception of CSR had positive effects on trust and loyalty. Finally, a favorable CSR perception weakened the negative effects of a service failure on trust and loyalty, particularly when the failure was attributed to a stable cause. The results highlight the important role of CSR in service failure situations and have important implications for airline managers.     

Explaining the Role of Perceived Risk,Knowledge, Price,and Cost in Dry Fish Consumption Within the Theory of Planned Behavior

ABSTRACT

The general purpose of this study is to explore the influence of perceived risk, knowledge, price, and cost of dry fish consumption in Bangladesh using the general framework from the theory of planned behavior (TPB). The field experiments were performed in Bangladesh with a convenience sample of 558 respondents. Multiple regression analysis was used to investigate the relationship among perceived risk, knowledge, price, and cost and TPB constructs. The findings showed that attitude, norms, and procedural knowledge emerge as the key determinants of intention, whereas intention, attitude, norms, and perceived risk have effects on the dry fish consumption frequency. Perceived behavioral control, price, and cost had no significant effect on intention and consumption behavior. The proposed TPB and the extended model both fit the data well and proved the expectations of this study in a promising way. The study found that people are more concerned about potential long-term risk to their family and others. Therefore, management attention should focus on reducing risks which consumers may face through producing safe and hazard-free dry fish.     

Generalized functional forms and demand for money in an open economy: the case of the United Kingdom

The purpose of this paper are twofold:first, to apply a Box–Cox model to the UK money demand relationship within an open economy framework in order to empirically investigate the proper functional form supported by the data in this general setting. Secondly, to test for the porper scale variable in the UK money demand function within the open economy Box–Cox specification. These improvements enhance the accuracy of our measures of monetary and fiscal policy effects and our understanding of the interdependence between different economies. The empirical results derived here reject the restrictive linear and log specifications in favour of the general Box–Cox model under both income and consumption-based money demand specifications. The traditional income-based model, however,escaps unharmed from the challenge put forward by Mankiw and Summers (1986).     

Towards a conceptual model of whistle-blowing intentions among external auditors

Whistle-blowing has received considerable attention in the ethics literature. However, following the collapse of Arthur Andersen in the Enron debacle, whistle-blowing within audit firms has taken on greater importance. Given the profession's requirements to be confidential, independent and to act in the public interest (e.g. Sarbanes–Oxley Act, 2002), there is a need for a model that is specific to the audit profession (e.g. Louwers, Ponemon, & Radtke, 1997), and in particular, that addresses auditors' whistle-blowing intentions. This paper presents a conceptual model on whistle-blowing intentions among external auditors where an auditor's individual factors (attitudes toward whistle-blowing, perceived behavioural control, independence commitment, personal responsibility for reporting and personal cost of reporting) have a direct influence on his or her intentions to whistle-blow, but are moderated by isomorphic factors (perceived organisational support and team norms) and issue-specific factors (perceived moral intensity). Using justice and institutional theories, the proposed model anticipates that whistle-blowing within an audit firm produces both positive and negative consequences to society, the audit firm and the individual whistle-blower. However, where audit firms have adequate formal supporting mechanisms for reporting wrongdoings to internal and external parties, the negative effects and personal costs of reporting will be minimised.