Causal relations between nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals in Central and Eastern European countries

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the causal relations between nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals. The analysis is conducted using panel quarterly data from the period 2001–12 for Central and Eastern European countries (including Turkey) with relatively flexible exchange rate regimes. The paper reconnects the empirical literature on exchange rates in Central and Eastern European countries with the most recent findings on exchange rate determination in advanced economies. Kóyna's approach, which accounts for linkages between countries, is used in the study. The main findings indicate the existence of causal relations running from both nominal exchange rates to monetary fundamentals and in the opposite direction as well as the existence of a relatively strong link between exchange rates and differentials in the relative price of non‐tradables.     

The management of an ageing workforce: organisational policies in Germany and Britain

Demographic change as well as pressure from the European Union and national government are forcing organisations to change age‐discriminatory HRM approaches. Based on a qualitative analysis of eight British and German organisations, we found that commitment, scope, coverage and implementation of age management differ due to country‐specific institutions, particularly government, in nudging employers and unions to preferred age practices. This confirms the path dependency concept suggested by institutional theory. Nevertheless, we also found that industry‐specific factors mediate the implementation of age management, leading to some convergence across countries. This indicates that organisations deviate from the institutional path to implement practices that they deem important.     

Leveraging purchase regularity for predicting customer behavior the easy way

The valuation of future customer activity is a mainstay of any organization seeking to efficiently manage its customer portfolio. In the area of customer-base analytics, the ongoing race for predictive power has yielded a large corpus of research to assist managers in this respect. Approaches in the tradition of stochastic models have been particularly successful because they rely only on easy-to-compute key metrics and integrate them within a parsimonious probability-modeling framework. Recent advances in this field have demonstrated that incorporating the timing regularity of past purchases can improve predictive accuracy relative to purely recency/frequency-based approaches. This paper expands that idea and introduces generalizations of a well-established probability model, the BG/NBD (Fader et al., 2005a), by replacing the exponential with a more flexible Erlang-k interarrival timing process. The resulting model variants are capable of leveraging regularity while retaining almost the same level of data requirements and algorithmic efficiency. Using extensive simulation studies and six data sets covering a wide range of empirical settings the authors demonstrate substantial improvements in predictive accuracy against the baseline models and performance gains close to or on par with a more complex model alternative. The availability of efficient and easily accessible implementations of the new model variants in the R-package BTYDplus allows marketing analysts to apply them in large-scale scenarios of data-rich environments on a continuous basis.     

Non-classical Algorithm for Time Series Prediction of the Range of Economic Phenomena With Regard to the Interaction of Financial Market Indicators

The aim of the article is to present non-clasical copyrighted algorithm for prediction of time series, presenting macroeconomic indicators and stock market indices. The algorithm is based on artificial neural networks and multi-resolution analysis （the algorithm is based on Daubechies wavelet）. However, the main feature of the algorithm, which gives a good quality of the forecasts, is all included in the series analysis division into, a few partial under-series and prediction dependence on a number of other economic series. The algorithm used for the prediction, is copyrighted algorithm, labeled M.H-D in this article. Application of the algorithm was performed on a series presenting WIG 20. The forecast of WIG 20 was conditional on trading the Dow Jones, DAX, Nikkei, Hang Seng, taking into account the sliding time window. As an example application of copyrighted model, the forecast of WIG 20 for a period of two years, one year, six month was appointed. An empirical example is described. It shows that the proposed model can predict index with the scale of two years, one year, a half year and other intervals. Precision of prediction is satisfactory. An average absolute percentage error of each forecast was： 0.0099%---for two-year forecasts WIG 20; 0.0552%--for the annual forecast WIG 20; and 0.1788%---for the six-month forecasts WIG 20.     

Persistence of firm‐level profitability in the European dairy processing industry

Based on autoregressive (AR) models and Arellano‐Bond dynamic panel estimation, this article analyses profit persistence in the European dairy processing industry. The sample comprises 590 dairy processors from the following five countries: Belgium, France, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom. The AR models indicate that cooperatives which account for around 20% of all firms in the dairy processing sector are not primarily profit oriented. In addition, the results point toward a high level of competition as profit persistence is rather low even if cooperatives are excluded. The panel model reveals that short‐ as well as long‐run profit persistence is influenced by firm and industry characteristics.     

Food Demand in Russia: Heterogeneous Consumer Segments over Time

The Russian food system has undergone substantial changes. However, knowledge on how economic transition has affected the structural parameters of food demand is lacking. Based on a two‐stage LES‐LA/AIDS model and annual panel data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (1995–2010), we provide a comprehensive set of food demand elasticities for Russia along two dimensions. First, we estimate demand parameters for three characteristic time periods in order to trace changes during transition. Second, to account for the Russian population's diversity, we derive elasticities for five different consumer segments. These groups are established by a cluster analysis based on households' food purchases. Our findings suggest that demand for food is far from satiated in Russia. We find generally high unconditional expenditure and own‐price elasticities for food. Both expenditure and own‐price elasticities show slight decreases in absolute terms over time. Low expenditure elasticities for staple foods like bread or cereals and high values for luxury goods such as meat, alcohol and tobacco suggest considerable changes in the composition of food baskets with further income growth. Results indicate that food production at home loses in importance while more affluent households in particular increase their demand for food consumption away from home.     

Where process development begins: A multiple case study of front end activities in process firms

The front end phase of the new product development has been examined extensively, yet few if any studies have examined the front end phase of new process development. By means of a multiple case study of process firms, this article aims to bridge this knowledge gap. Our results show that substantial differences in front end activities exist between the product development and process development domains. We conceptualize the front end in process development to be an iterative trial-and-error process, dominated by activities such as idea generation and refinement, literature reviews, anticipation of end-product changes, and various forms of experiments in bench scale, lab scale, and full-scale production. In addition, we highlight key problems in the front end and managerial remedies for how to mitigate them. While these findings provide theoretical implications for research into product development, process development and production management, the findings are particularly relevant to process development managers, plant managers, and development engineers interested in increasing the efficiency of production processes.     

When is FDI a capital flow?

In this paper we analyze the conditions under which a foreign direct investment (FDI) involves a net capital flow across countries. For this purpose, we investigate how multinational firms finance their foreign affiliates, globally or locally. We develop a contract theoretical model in which the financing structure is used to govern the incentives of managers. We find that the investment tends to be financed locally if managerial incentive problems are large. Thus, microeconomic governance problems may have macroeconomic implications for the net capital flow to host countries. Our results are consistent with survey data on German and Austrian investment flows of firms to Eastern Europe.