A fresh look at the contribution of project management to organizational performance

A better understanding of organizational performance and the contribution that project management can make is the aim. The article adopts the “Competing Values Framework,” a rich framework that is well established both theoretically and empirically but is not well known in the field of project management. The framework is summarized and applied in an empirical investigation of the contribution of project management in general and project management offices (PMOs) in particular to organizational performance. The examination of 11 case studies revealed multiple concurrent and sometimes paradoxical perspectives. The criteria proposed by the framework have been further developed through the identification of a preliminary set of empirically grounded performance indicators. The empirical results contribute to a better understanding of the role of project management generally and PMOs specifically. They also demonstrate the usefulness of this framework for the study of project management's contribution to organizational performance.     

Optimal investment decisions when time-horizon is uncertain

Many investors do not know with certainty when their portfolio will be liquidated. Should their portfolio selection be influenced by the uncertainty of exit time? In order to answer this question, we consider a suitable extension of the familiar optimal investment problem of Merton [Merton, R.C., 1971. Optimal consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model. Journal of Economic Theory 3, 373–413], where we allow the conditional distribution function of an agent’s time-horizon to be stochastic and correlated to returns on risky securities. In contrast to existing literature, which has focused on an independent time-horizon, we show that the portfolio decision is affected.     

Private Wealth in a Developing Country:Evidence from South Africa

The point of departure of Piketty's influential Capital in the Twenty‐First Century (2014) was the dramatic growth of private wealth‐income ratios in advanced economies between 1970 and 2010. Using official balance sheet data for South Africa—the first country to publish such data in the developing world—, this paper examines to what extent this re‐emergence of private wealth was also experienced in the developing‐country context. First, we find that the South African current wealth‐income ratio is very close to its 1975 level, and much lower than those of Piketty's sample of advanced economies. Second, we show that the discrepancy is explained not only by South Africa's relatively low savings rates, but also by the reduction of wealth before and during the transition to democracy in the 1990s. Since then, private wealth recovered significantly, but the U‐shaped relationship does not support the argument that there is a clear correlation between the capital‐income ratio and capital share.     

Portfolio optimization in a defaultable market under incomplete information

We consider the problem of maximization of expected utility from terminal wealth in a market model that is driven by a possibly not fully observable factor process and that takes explicitly into account the possibility of default for the individual assets as well as contagion (direct and information induced) among them. It is a multinomial model in discrete time that allows for an explicit solution. We discuss the solution within our defaultable and partial information setup, in particular we study its robustness. Numerical results are derived in the case of a log-utility function, and they can be analogously obtained for a power utility function.     

Exploring PMOs through community of practice theory

This article explores project management offices (PMOs) through community of practice theory. Preliminary results from a national health care case study are used to confirm the legitimacy of this approach. Today's knowledge‐based economy calls for mechanisms to share knowledge. The issue of making more with less is at stake in order to reuse good practices, support innovative practice, and prevent the reinvention of the wheel. Members of these communities are at the heart of the learning process. The originality of this research is that it sheds light on PMOs in a new theoretical perspective within the field of knowledge management.     

Media-Based Sentiment Indices as an Alternative Measure of Consumer Confidence

In this paper, we consider the feasibility of constructing online sentiment indices, using large amounts of media data, as an alternative to the conventional survey method used to create the consumer confidence index in South Africa. A clustering framework is adopted to provide an indication of possible candidate sentiment indices constructed from a combination of different text sources and dictionaries that best mimic the traditional survey-based consumer confidence index from the South African Bureau for Economic Research (BER). The results conclude that it is possible to create an index using sentiment analysis using online editorial data that does resemble the BER’s consumer confidence index. The different media-based sentiment indices (MSI) show a significant level of correlation and co-movement with the BER’s CCI. Impulse responses and cross-correlation functions indicate that the MSI could potentially lead the survey-based method up to two quarters. Furthermore, Granger-causality tests show that the media-based indices are good predictors of future consumer confidence index values. The results provide motivation for further study on the use of sentiment-based techniques and online media data sources to track consumer confidence within an emerging market such as South Africa.     

A Sticky Information Phillips Curve for South Africa

Mankiw and Reis propose the Sticky Information Phillips Curve (SIPC) as an alternative to the standard New Keynesian Phillips Curve to address empirical shortcomings in the latter. A SIPC for South Africa is estimated, and we find estimates of information updating probability between 0.69 and 0.81, somewhat higher than suggested by methods using micro‐evidence. Because the estimation requires data on expectations of current period inflation and output gap conditional on sequences of earlier period information sets, we provide a detailed analysis of the impact on our estimates of alternative proxies available in South Africa.     

Creating a Testable, Estimable Model to Inform Our Response to the Test-Score Gap Crisis

The test-score gap between black and white students should be seen as a crisis. We propose a testable model based on readily available data that will allow us to estimate the impact and interrelationships of a multitude of factors that may be partially responsible for the problem. The estimation of this model will require the joint efforts of experts in many areas of education as well as of experts in multilevel structural equation modeling.     

Valuation of default-sensitive claims under imperfect information

We propose a valuation method for financial assets subject to default risk, where investors cannot observe the state variable triggering the default but observe a correlated price process. The model is sufficiently general to encompass a large class of structural models and can be seen as a generalization of the model of Duffie and Lando (Econometrica 69:633–664, [2001]). In this setting we prove that the default time is totally inaccessible in the market’s filtration and derive the conditional default probabilities and the intensity process. Finally, we provide pricing formulas for default-sensitive claims and illustrate in particular examples the shapes of the credit spreads.      

PDE approach to valuation and hedging of credit derivatives

This paper presents a PDE approach in a Markovian setting to hedge defaultable derivatives. The arbitrage price and the hedging strategy for an attainable contingent claim are described in terms of solutions of a pair of coupled PDEs. For some standard examples of defaultable claims, we provide explicit formulae for prices and hedging strategies.