Are traditional timing models well specified?

Traditional timing models are affected by several biases, which generate spurious timing and stock-picking coefficients. Academics have appointed different causes as the possible sources of these biases. A negative correlation between timing and stock-picking abilities arises as a consequence of the biases in traditional timing models. This article provides evidence for one bias commonly found in traditional timing models, which is related with options. We focus on this bias in view of the scant attention it has so far received in the literature. We believe one possible cause for this bias is the failure to include the cost of the option implicit in timing activities in the timing models, and on this basis, we opt for a corrected version of the Merton and Henriksson model (1981 Merton, RC and Henriksson, RD. 1981. On market timing and investment performance II: statistical procedures for evaluating forecasting skills. Journal of Business, 54: 513–34. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). This study therefore is a pioneer in the assessment of the magnitude of this bias and in the measurement of the impact of its correction on fund managers’ results. Our results confirm both the existence of the bias and the correction of the problem when the cost of the option is included in timing models. The modified version of the Merton and Henriksson model, unlike the traditional model, reports positive timing and stock-picking coefficients, supporting the good performance by managers.     

二元价值容介态股票投资价值评价

本文利用综合评价法,基于二元价值容介态理论,利用物质态和信息态双层筛选法,对A股上市公司进行综合评级,以挖掘有投资价值的上市公司。     

How to Spot a Careerist Early On: Psychopathy and Exchange Ideology as Predictors of Careerism

Careerism refers to an individual’s propensity to achieve their personal and career goals through nonperformance-based activities (Feldman, The Indus Org Psychol 39–44, 1985). We investigated the role of several dispositional predictors of careerism, including Five-factor model (FFM) personality traits, primary psychopathy, and exchange ideology. Based on data from 131 respondents, as expected, we observed that emotional stability was negatively correlated with careerism. Primary psychopathy and exchange ideology explained additional variance in careerism after accounting for FFM traits. Relative importance analyses indicated that psychopathy (relative weight percentage of explained variance = 42.1 %) and exchange ideology (relative weight percentage = 44.1 %) were equally important in predicting careerism. We highlight the need for future research efforts investigating the combined effects of contextual factors—particularly, human resource practices—and individual differences to understand careerism in the workplace.     

浅析国外企业供应链管理实践

对近三年来国外供应链管理实践方面表现突出的企业进行分析,总结了这些企业供应链管理的三大特点和供应链管理实践的六大策略.这些国外企业在供应链管理方面的最佳实践对于企业的供应链管理和供应链学科都有非常宝贵的借鉴作用.     

日本储蓄率的变动及对中国的启示

日本曾经是世界储蓄率最高的国家之一,但从20世纪90年代开始,日本储蓄率发生了显著变化,呈下降趋势。日本储蓄率的变动不但会影响本国经济,还将影响世界经济。通过储蓄理论与最新经济数据分析得出日本储蓄率变动的最主要因素是:收入因素、人口因素及社会保障因素。研究日本储蓄率变动对中国调整高储蓄率有一些有益的启示。     

并行工程视角下产品绿色设计评估模式构建

环保性的相关决策及绿色产业是未来企业实现可持续发展所必须重视的议题。因此,运用并行工程的概念构建了一套新产品进行绿色设计时评选开发方案的评估模式,并结合模糊理论及灰色系统的理念与方法以处理决策过程中可能存在的不确定性、模糊性及评估过程中信息不完整性的情况,最后以模拟的方式完成此评估模式。     

中日资源与环境技术预见比较研究

近年来,技术预见研究成为国际热点。当前,在我国开展技术预见研究,不仅是参与国际竞争和建设创新型国家的需要,而且是国家制定科技发展战略和科技政策的重要基础。对中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目"中国未来20年技术预见研究"中资源与环境技术领域的德尔菲调查进行了概要介绍,并与日本第7次技术预见相关内容(包括子领域划分、课题数量分布、重要程度综合得分前10位课题分布、技术预见活动问卷发放和回函情况等)进行了比较研究,并得出了一些初步结论。     

关于天然气组成分析比对工作的探讨

2006年中国石油股份公司勘探与生产分公司组织相关实验室对管输天然气样品进行了组成分析比对工作。对本次比对工作的建立和运作进行了总结,并介绍了组成分析比对工作的概况,总结了比对分析统计结果。本次比对工作的开展,对促进参加实验室天然气组成分析水平的提高起到了积极地推动作用,其结论和建议对今后进行天然气组成比对分析工作具有一定的参考意义。     

基于项目管理的两级供应链产品研发模式

根据供应链管理思想,提出了企业间进行合作研发的模型和项目管理方法,并与其它形式的研发活动进行了比较。     

我国城乡差距的政策性因素分析——基于亚当·斯密城乡发展思想

市场经济理论之父亚当·斯密曾在他的不朽名著《国民财富的性质和原因的研究》一书中阐述了有关城乡发展的思想。根据亚当·斯密的城乡发展思想,对当前我国城乡差距的原因,进行了宏观政策层面上的分析,可为缩小我国城乡差距提供借鉴。