The unit root problem: Affinities between ergodicity and stationarity,its practical contradictions for central bank policy,and some consideration of alternatives

The initial focus in this article is the problem of mismatch between policy goals and statistical analysis, based on how data is transformed and processed. This intrinsically raises ontological issues regarding the nature of an economy within which policy is made and to which statistical analysis is applied. These are of general significance to post Keynesians irrespective of the position they take on the specifics of the ergodicity debate. However, they involve some issues that overlap with some aspects of that debate. The problem as posed in this article is specific and involves a practical contradiction regarding central bank policy and the problem of unit roots. The authors then consider some additional ways in which one can go beyond common practice based on the example of Forward Guidance in the United Kingdom and a more institutional approach to post Keynesian analysis.     

Financial development,industrialization, the role of institutions and government: a comparative analysis between India and China

This research is the first comparative attempt incorporating the role of economic, demographic, sectoral contribution, government and trade in explaining financial development for India and China. Using time-series estimations, we establish that institutional quality and government size impede financial development, whereas urbanization, industrialization and service sector growth help in financial development for both countries. Trade openness also enhances Indian financial development but hinders Chinese financial development. We suggest that the policy advisers should not underestimate the role of urbanization, industrialization and service sector growth in implementing financial development. Finally, we find that the institutions and governments will play a key role for both economies in enhancing finance and growth.     

Is globalization detrimental to financial development? Further evidence from a very large emerging economy with significant orientation towards policies

This study attempts to explore the relationship between globalization and financial development by endogenizing economic growth, population density, inflation and institutional quality for India during the period from 1971–2013. Using the more conclusivecombined cointegration method, the study provides evidence of cointegration among these variables. The long-run and short-run estimates from the ARDL model and causality tests, respectively, suggest that globalization in its all forms (political, social and economic) and its overall measure as well as inflation are detrimental to financial development, while economic growth and population density both promote financial development. Furthermore, the results also point out that institutional quality is not conducive to financial development in India, and there exists a feedback effect between financial development and inflation. Moreover, financial development is influenced by economic growth, institutional quality and population density.     

How strong is the causal relationship between globalization and energy consumption in developed economies? A country-specific time-series and panel analysis

We examine the causal relationship between globalization, economic growth and energy consumption for 25 developed economies using both time series and panel data techniques for the period 1970–2014. Due to the presence of cross-sectional dependence in the panel (countries from Asia, North America, Western Europe and Oceania), we employ the cross-sectional augmented IPS test to ascertain unit root properties. The cointegration test results indicate the presence of a long-run association between globalization, economic growth and energy consumption. Long-run heterogeneous panel elasticities are estimated through the common correlated effects mean group estimator and the augmented mean group estimator. The empirical results reveal that, for most countries, globalization increases energy consumption. In the USA and UK, globalization is negatively correlated with energy consumption. The causality analysis indicates the presence of the globalization-driven energy consumption hypothesis. This empirical analysis suggests insightful policy guidelines for policy makers using globalization as an economic tool to utilize energy efficiently for sustainable economic development in the long run.     

Cross-sectional and time-series momentum returns: are Islamic stocks different?

We search for differences in both unconditional and conditional momentum returns of Islamic and Non-Islamic stocks and test implications of competing behavioural theories that aim to explain momentum returns. Our results show that there is no significant difference in momentum returns between Islamic versus Non-Islamic stocks with respect to both cross-sectional (CS) and time-series (TS) momentum strategies even when we condition momentum returns on market dynamics, information uncertainty and idiosyncratic volatility. We also find that the TS strategy outperforms (underperforms) the CS strategy in market continuations (transitions) consistent with the recent evidence in the U.S. market.

Furthermore, we find that CS and TS strategies of both Islamic and Non-Islamic stocks are profitable only when the market continues in the same state consistent with overconfidence driving momentum returns of both Islamic and Non-Islamic stocks.     

Hiring and Separation Rates Before and after the Arab Spring in the Tunisian Labour Market

We seek to explore the hiring and separation rates in Tunisia before and after the Arab Spring based on quarterly business level data for 503 firms over the span of January 2007 to December 2012. Furthermore, we examine whether employers are willing to dismiss older workers to trigger an effective increase in mobility that will open new opportunities for the youth community. We build our analysis upon six main empirical models to study employment decisions reflected by major indicators such as the number of hiring, number of separations, total employment effects, male‐female ratio, age cohorts, labour mobility and net employment. The results show that the Arab Spring has created structural unemployment trends. In addition, we note that the 2008 global turmoil has fostered the firing level of employment. Our conclusions also indicate that the response of Tunisia's government to high unemployment rates caused by the financial meltdown in 2008 and the events in 2011 was not sufficient to remove the attached lingering effects that still distress the country's labour market. In addition, our findings emphasize the significant challenges faced by Tunisian youth that could be mitigated by efficient policy actions to incentivize training and development geared towards the private sector.     

Does economic liberalization promote economic growth in Pakistan? An empirical analysis

The study aims to examine the short and long term impacts of economic liberalization on economic growth in case of Pakistan from 1971 to 2011. Economic liberalization consists of reforms in both trade liberalization and financial liberalization. This study contributes to the existing literature by constructing an economic liberalization index using principal component analysis. Our results show, firstly, that economic liberalization reforms have a positive impact on economic growth in the short run. However, trade liberalization is negatively associated with economic growth in the long-run. Secondly, the estimated coefficients through rolling window show that impact of economic liberalization on real GDP is unstable during the selected period of sample. This study recommends to policy makers to enhance human capital by having more expenditure on education sector. In addition, financial reforms by way of a sectoral credit allocation should be introduced to further promote the economic growth.     

Developing environmental performance measures for tourism using a Tourism Satellite Accounts approach: a pilot study of the accommodation industry in Egypt

Considering the recognized pressures of tourism on the natural environment, it is important to quantify and understand those pressures. This paper adopts an approach based on the Tourism Satellite Accounts conceptual framework to measure selected environmental pressures of tourism. Egypt is selected for the case study and the accommodation industry group is used as a pilot test (reference year 2009) for the feasibility of the proposed methodology. Results show that each US$ 1 million of direct value added supported by tourists expenditure in the accommodation industry group requires 18.6 thousand m³ of water, 51.1 tons of fuel, and 426 megawatt hours (Mwh) of electricity. Similarly, each US$ 1 million of the direct value added generated by tourists expenditure for accommodation creates directly about 464.3 tons of CO₂ emissions. It is estimated that serving inbound tourism is a higher user of energy resources than serving domestic tourism, which is higher in terms of water use. These environmental performance measures enable the Egyptian Government to examine the potential environmental pressures and financial costs of attracting new tourists.