Some extensions to a stochastic model for technological forecasting

In this article we propose and analyze two stochastic models for technological forecasting. These models are extensions of the simple model proposed by the author in an earlier article.     

The impact of bilateral tax treaties: A multi-country analysis of FDI inflows into India

This paper models the role of tax treaties in promoting foreign direct investment (FDI) with the help of panel data for 14 countries for the period 1993–2011. A fixed effects (least squares dummy variable) model is developed that captures macroeconomic factors such as gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita income (PCI) in ratio form of home to host country. It also includes bilateral tax treaties as a determinant of FDI inflow. The results show that GDP is a major determinant that is demand driven and per capita income is a major determinant that is supply driven. FDI openness of the home countries and population are also significant determinants. The introduction of the treaty had a positive impact on FDI inflows into India. We get largely significant and positive results for the ‘age of the treaty effect’, especially, in the case of Germany, Switzerland and Japan. The main contribution of the paper is to show that both presence and ‘age of treaty’ are important determinants of FDI flows to India. Further, fundamentals like GDP and PCI are major variables that influence FDI inflows.     

Aggregate health care expenditure in the United States: evidence from cointegration tests

Unlike recent studies that are based on international cross-sectional series, this paper attempts to quantify the role of the determinants of aggregate health care expenditure per capita, using time-series data for the period of 1960–87 for the United States. The paper applies the relatively new procedures of unit root testing, cointegration and error-correction modelling. The evidence supports cointegration. Although, the results indicate that per capita income, age of the population, number of practising physicians, and public financing of health care are important determinants, the age structure of the population and number of practising physicians emerge as the major determinants of aggregate health care expenditure in the United States.     

Tree Diversity and Carbon Sinks: Role of Village Agro-ecosystems in the Western Ghats,Karnataka, India

Tree species richness, diversity index, standing biomass and biomass carbon stocks were estimated in six villages located under three agro-ecological zones, namely, coastal, hill and plains of Uttara Kannada district, Western Ghats, Peninsular India. The study showed that land use categories other than forest support higher tree species diversity. High basal area, standing biomass and carbon stock in non-forest land categories indicates their potential as carbon sinks and for promotion of species diversity. Inclusion of other non-forest land use categories in afforestation programmes for promotion of multipurpose tree species for conservation of diversity and for enhancing carbon sinks is suggested. There is a need to promote synergy between biodiversity conservation and carbon sequestration under carbon mitigation projects.     

A note on estimation of variance components in a multi-stage sampling design based on interpenetrating sub-samples

Summary In this note it is shown that unbiased estimators of the components of the sampling variance of an estimator in the case of a stratified multi-stage sampling design could easily be obtained by selecting the samples at the different stages in the form of two or more independent interpenetrating sub-samples.     

The relationship between budget deficits and capital inflows: Further econometric evidence

This research note examines the impact of federal deficits on U.S. capital inflows. Expanding on the previous work of Bahmani-Oskooee and Payesteh (1994), we employ the relatively new maximum likelihood procedure developed byJohansen (1988) andjohansen andJuselius (1990) to do cointegration tests. The results find a long run relationship between budget deficits and capital inflows. In addition, findings from error-correlation modeling reveal that short-run disequilibria in financial markets are corrected very rapidly, suggesting that these markets are efficient.     

A stochastic model for technology forecasting

A stochastic model for technology forecasting is proposed. A complete analysis of the model is given and application to a real problem is presented.     

Demographic trends and the impact of family welfare programmes in India

The authors examine population growth trends and evaluate family planning programs in India. They note that despite intensified efforts and government claims of increased acceptance of family planning, the birth rate has remained stationary since 1977.     

Customer value,satisfaction, loyalty,and switching costs: An illustration from a business-to-business service context

Although researchers and managers pay increasing attention to customer value, satisfaction, loyalty, and switching costs, not much is known about their interrelationships. Prior research has examined the relationships within subsets of these constructs, mainly in the business-to-consumer (B2C) environment. The authors extend prior research by developing a conceptual framework linking all of these constructs in a business-to-business (B2B) service setting. On the basis of the cognition-affect-behavior model, the authors hypothesize that customer satisfaction mediates the relationship between customer value and customer loyalty, and that customer satisfaction and loyalty have significant reciprocal effects on each other. Furthermore, the potential interaction effect of satisfaction and switching costs, and the quadratic effect of satisfaction, on loyalty are explored. The authors test the hypotheses on data obtained from a courier service provider in a B2B context. The results support most of the hypotheses and, in particular, confirm the mediating role of customer satisfaction. Shun Yin Lam (asylam@ntu.edu.sg; fax: 65-6791-3697) is an assistant professor of marketing and international business in the Nanyang Business School at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. Lam received his Ph.D. from the University of Western Ontario and has research interests in a number of areas including retail marketing, customer loyalty, and customers’ adoption and usage of technology. His work has appeared inMarketing Science, theJournal of Retailing, theInternational Journal of Research in Marketing, andAdvances in Consumer Research. Venkatesh (Venky) Shankar (vshankar@rhsmith.umd.edu) is Ralph J. Tyser Fellow and an associate professor of marketing in the Smith School of Business at the University of Maryland. His areas of research are e-business, competitive strategy, international marketing, pricing, new product management, and supply chain management. His research has been published or is forthcoming in theJournal of Marketing Research, Marketing Science, theJournal of Marketing, theStrategic Management Journal, theJournal of Retailing, theInternational Journal of Research in Marketing, theJournal of Public Policy and Marketing, andMarketing Letters. he is co-editor of theJournal of Interactive Marketing; associate editor ofManagement Science; and serves on the editorial boards ofMarketing Science, theJournal of Marketing, theInternational Journal of Research in Marketing, theJournal of Retailing, and theJournal of Academy of Marketing Science. He is a three-time winner of the Krowe Award for Outstanding Teaching and teaches Marketing Management, Digital Business Strategy, Competitive Marketing Strategy, and International Marketing (http://www.venkyshankar.com). M. Krishna Erramilli (amkerramilli@ntu.edu.sg) is an associate professor of marketing and international business in the Nanyang Business School at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. He has undertaken many studies on marketing strategy issues in service firms, particularly in an international context, and has published his work in journals like theJournal of Marketing, theJournal of International Business Studies, theColumbia Journal of World Business, and theJournal of Business Research. He has presented numerous papers at international conferences. His current research interests center on the international expansion of Asia-based service firms. Bvsan Murthy (abmurthy@ntu.edu.sg) is an associate professor of marketing and international business in the Nanyang Business School at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. Prior to turning to the academe a decade ago, he had 20 years of international industry experience. He has published in journals likeThe Cornell H.R.A. Quarterly and theInternational Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management and has also written industry white papers/monographs and chapters in books. His current research interests center on strategic services marketing/management and customer value management.