Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve*

This paper investigates the empirical success of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) in explaining US inflation when observed measures of inflation expectations are used in conjunction with the output gap. The paper contributes to the literature by addressing the important problem of serial correlation in the stylized NKPC and developing an extended model to account for this serial correlation. Contrary to recent results indicating no role for the output gap, we find it to be a statistically significant driving variable for inflation, with this finding robust to whether the inflation expectations series used relates to individual consumers, professional forecasters or the US Fed.     

Trade and the Speed of Convergence

Numerous studies on income convergence estimate the convergence equation derived for autarkic economies using data from the world that is increasingly integrated. This paper derives a convergence equation for a world integrated by trade from the standard Heckscher–Ohlin model with factor price equalization. The convergence equation for an integrated world differs from the autarkic one in that (1) the growth rate of each economy is increasing in the global growth rate; (2) the rate of convergence is increasing in the global growth rate; and (3) the rate of convergence, under conventional parameter values, is much lower.     

Group Contests with Internal Conflict and Power Asymmetry

We investigate simultaneous inter‐ and intra‐group conflict in the shadow of within‐group power asymmetry and complementarity in members' group‐conflict efforts. A more symmetric group faces a higher degree of internal conflict, and might expend more effort in external conflict when the group‐conflict effort technology is highly complementary. Depending on the degree of complementarity, the stronger player's relative contribution to external conflict might be higher in a more asymmetric group and, as a result, it is possible for the weaker player to earn a higher payoff. In the absence of any complementarity, the rent‐dissipation is non‐monotonic with the within‐group power asymmetry.     

HARSH NORMS AND SCREENING FOR LOYALTY

Norms that restrict choice sets or impose otherwise harsh requirements would seem to act as barriers to group formation by raising the costs of adherence to potential and continuing members. Contrary to that intuition, one observes a broad range of group norms in the real world that impose large costs on group members. Iannaccone provides a rationale for harsh norms as a mechanism to reduce free‐riding in supplying a club good. This paper proposes a new rationalization for harsh group norms as a mechanism under which harsh norms serve to screen out disloyal members, providing what is essentially a technology for measuring loyalty in environments where group leaders cannot reliably measure group members' loyalty. The model demonstrates that loyalty can be signalled through acts that are seemingly irrelevant to the group's core objectives and identity.     

Innovation strategy of local pharmaceutical firms in Korea: a multivariate analysis

This article examines 37 local pharamaceutical firms in Korea to identify different patterns of innovation behaviour associated with four types of firms, which are categorized by two variables: the scale of operation and technological capability. Both bivariate and multivariate analyses support the hypotheses that these four types of firms exhibit different innovation strategies and in turn the level of performance they achieved. Specifically, large firms with high technological capability diversify their efforts, investing in their own R & D and tapping foreign capabilities, and as a result exhibit the highest degree of innovativeness, while large firms with low technological capability resort primarily to the transfer of foreign technology for short-term profitability. In contrast, small firms with high technological capability rely mainly on their own R & D efforts with the assistance from local R & D institutes and enjoy the highest growth rate, whereas small firms with low technological capability imitate technologically low-grade products by hiring experienced technical personnel from other firms. There are also fragmented indications that many local firms have long evolved from small firms with low capability to large firms with high capability. Finally, managerial and theoretical implications for the innovation strategies in LDCs/NICsE are discussed.     

Tax Motivated Income Shifting and Korean Business Groups (Chaebol)

Abstract:  This paper examines tax-induced income shifting behavior among affiliated firms in Korean business groups (chaebols). Korean corporate income tax law does not require consolidated tax returns, and business groups with a large number of affiliated member firms have incentives to shift income across member firms to reduce the overall taxes of the group. For a large number of Korean companies that are subject to external audits, we perform univariate and multivariate regression analyses on the income shifting behavior of chaebol firms compared with non-chaebol control firms. Our evidence suggests that tax-motivated income shifting activities exist among chaebol firms, and that the extent of income shifting is found to depend on its effect on non-tax cost factors such as the earnings, leverage, and cash flow rights of the controlling shareholders. We also find that income shifting is more pronounced in chaebol firms where the control-cash flow divergence is relatively large, suggesting that income shifting is affected by the controlling shareholders' opportunism. Our study provides some insights on the intra-group income shifting activities where research is limited.     

Multiple directorships and corporate diversification

This paper investigates the impact of multiple directorships on corporate diversification. We hypothesize that multiple directorships affect the quality of managerial oversight and, thus, influence the degree of corporate diversification and firm value. The empirical evidence lends credence to this notion. Specifically, we find that directors’ busyness is inversely related to firm value. In other words, firms where board members hold more outside board seats suffer a deeper diversification discount. Further analysis also reveals that the negative effect of having overcommitted directors on the board is more pronounced in firms where agency costs are more severe, suggesting that the diversification discount is driven by agency conflicts. Our results aptly fit into the on-going debate on the benefits and detriments of multiple directorships.     

Immediate Annuity Pricing in the Presence of Unobserved Heterogeneity

Abstract

One of the acknowledged difficulties with pricing immediate annuities is that underwriting the annuitantis life is the exception rather than the rule. In the absence of underwriting, the price paid for a life-contingent annuity is the same for all sales at a given age. This exposes the market (insurance company and potential policyholder alike) to antiselection. The insurance company worries that only the healthiest people choose a life-contingent annuity and therefore adjust mortality accordingly. The potential policyholders worry that they are not being compensated for their relatively poor health and choose not to purchase what would otherwise be a very beneficial product.

This paper develops a model of underlying, unobserved health. Health is a state variable that follows a first-order Markov process. An individual reaches the state “death” either by accident from any health state or by progressively declining health state. Health state is one-dimensional, in the sense that health can either “improve” or “deteriorate” by moving farther from or close to the “death” state, respectively. The probability of death in a given year is a function of health state, not of age. Therefore, in this model a person is exactly as old as he or she feels.

I first demonstrate that a multistate, ageless Markov model can match the mortality patterns in the common annuity mortality tables. The model is extended to consider several types of mortality improvements: permanent through decreasing probability of deteriorating health, temporary through improved distribution of initial health state, and plateau through the effects of past health improvements.

I then construct an economic model of optimal policyholder behavior, assuming that the policyholder either knows his or her health state or has some limited information. the value of mortality risk transfer through purchasing a life-contingent annuity is estimated for each health state under various risk-aversion parameters. Given the economic model for optimal purchasing of annuities, the value of underwriting (limited information about policyholder health state) is demonstrated.     

The Effectiveness of a Training Program for the Self-Evaluated Job Performance of Cultural Tourism Interpreters

The purpose of this study is to examine the effectiveness of participation in a training program for cultural tourism interpreters. Results from this study revealed that there are significant differences of three of the interpreters’ job-related variables between before and after participation in the cultural tourism interpreters’ training program. However, there is not a significant difference of job involvement between before and after the program. Some program content significantly impacted on three of the interpreters’ job-related variables. Future studies are necessary to explain the relationships between the interpreters’ training program content and interpreters’ job-related variables from longitudinal perspectives. Additionally, the relationships should be examined by other samples to show the diverse experiences of the participants to the planners of cultural tourism interpreters’ training programs.     

Does a money‐is‐all attitude cause alienation? A cross‐cultural comparison of Korea,the US and Sweden

Money is increasingly being attributed more value in society, although a money‐is‐all attitude decreases social relationships and increases alienation in modern, industrialized societies. This research investigated the influence of this money‐is‐all attitude on alienation based on a cross‐cultural comparison of Korea, the US and Sweden. The money‐is‐all attitude was defined as a perspective in which money is regarded as an indicator of achievement or success. Self‐administered online surveys were conducted with consumers ranging between the ages of 20 to 49 in Korea, the US and Sweden. The money‐is‐all attitude and alienation seemed to be more pervasive in Korea than in the US or Sweden. The money‐is‐all attitude was the factor with the strongest influence on alienation when controlling for socio‐demographic factors. Furthermore, participation in sports activities was an important factor in decreasing alienation levels. The findings of this research imply that materialistic ways of thinking increase alienation and that money cannot contribute to human happiness and well‐being. In addition, active participation in social activities can decrease alienation. The research results suggest that a materialistic, money‐is‐all attitude negatively influences alienation across cultures; in addition, in the US, an affluent consumption‐based country, the money‐is‐all attitude had more explanatory power for alienation than in Sweden and Korea. A change in values to overcome the money‐is‐all attitude is required and the concepts of sufficiency and mindfulness are suggested as alternative life perspectives for the pursuit of well‐being.