Risk and return: Long-run relations,fractional cointegration,and return predictability

Univariate dependencies in market volatility, both objective and risk neutral, are best described by long-memory fractionally integrated processes. Meanwhile, the ex post difference, or the variance swap payoff reflecting the reward for bearing volatility risk, displays far less persistent dynamics. Using intraday data for the Standard & Poor's 500 and the volatility index (VIX), coupled with frequency domain methods, we separate the series into various components. We find that the coherence between volatility and the volatility-risk reward is the strongest at long-run frequencies. Our results are consistent with generalized long-run risk models and help explain why classical efforts of establishing a naïve return-volatility relation fail. We also estimate a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregression (CFVAR). The model-implied long-run equilibrium relation between the two variance variables results in nontrivial return predictability over interdaily and monthly horizons, supporting the idea that the cointegrating relation between the two variance measures proxies for the economic uncertainty rewarded by the market.     

Trade Balance and Exchange Rate: Unit Roots, Co-integration and Long Memory in the US and the UK

This paper deals with the relationship between the balance of trade and the exchange rate in the US/UK case. Many authors have studied this issue for many countries, but despite the intensive research, there is still no agreement about the effectiveness of currency devaluation to increase a country's balance of trade. We first analyse the relationship between the two variables using unit roots and co-integration methods, and the results are ambiguous. We try a new approach based on fractional integration. The unit root hypothesis is rejected in case of the trade balance in favour of smaller orders of integration, while this hypothesis is not rejected for the exchange rate. Thus, the two series do not possess the same order of integration. We sort this problem out by taking the exchange rate as an exogenous variable, and including it in a regression model where the residuals might follow a fractionally integrated model.     

SCREENING AS A UNIFIED THEORY OF DELINQUENCY,RENEGOTIATION, AND BANKRUPTCY

We propose a parsimonious model with adverse selection where delinquency, renegotiation, and bankruptcy all occur in equilibrium as a result of a simple screening mechanism. A borrower has private information about her endowment, and a lender uses random contracts to screen different types of borrowers. In equilibrium, some borrowers choose not to repay and thus become delinquent. The lender renegotiates with some delinquent borrowers. In the absence of renegotiation, delinquency leads to bankruptcy. Applied to mortgage restructuring, our mechanism generates amplification of house‐price shocks through foreclosure spillovers. We also show that government intervention aimed at limiting foreclosures may have unintended consequences.     

Tacit Collusion in Repeated Auctions: Uniform Versus Discriminatory

Within an infinitely repeated game, I compare the level and conduct of collusion under uniform and discriminatory auctions. For this purpose, I characterize the optimal collusive schemes and sets of sustainable profits under these auction formats. I show that uniform auctions facilitate collusion more than discriminatory auctions: the optimal penal code is equally severe under the two formats; but bidders' deviation incentives are weaker in uniform auctions given that the pay-off irrelevant bids can be used to relax the enforcement problem. This discussion is particularly relevant after the recent reforms in the electricity industry in England & Wales, and elsewhere.     

Network effects, market structure and industry performance

This paper analyzes oligopolistic markets with network externalities. Exploiting a minimal complementarity structure on the model primitives that allows for pure network goods, we prove existence of non-trivial fulfilled-expectations equilibrium. We formalize the concept of industry viability, investigate its determinants, and show that it improves with more firms in the market and/or by technological progress. These results enlighten some well-known conclusions from case studies in the management strategy literature. We also characterize the effects of market structure on industry performance, which depart substantially from ordinary markets. The approach relies on lattice-theoretic methods, supplemented with basic insights from nonsmooth analysis.     

Institutional Change in Nepal: Liberalization,Maoist Movement,Rise of Political Consciousness and Constitutional Change

ABSTRACT

Contradicting the rest of the world’s promptness to discredit communism as an alternative and Francis Fukuyama’s (1992 Fukuyama, F. 1992. The End of History and the Last Man . New York: The Free Press, A Division of Macmilan Inc. [Google Scholar]) teleological account of ‘the end of history,’ Nepal witnessed a Maoist revolution between 1996 and 2006. Such a ‘deviation’ from what Fukuyama and others have viewed as the path of development raises questions about the linear progression of history and its implicit dualism of market vs. government. As several Original Institutional Economists have discussed, analytical dichotomies lead to a simplistic understanding of transformation that disregards the multilayered nature of society and, thus, concludes that history unfolds linearly to arrive at a predetermined and homogeneous end. This paper analyzes the social transformation of Nepal that preceded the Maoist revolution, through the lens of Feminist Institutionalism, utilizing a multidisciplinary approach to understand the complexity of the impacts of liberalism-protectionism political changes on Nepali institutions.     

Downward nominal wage rigidity in Canada: Evidence from micro‐level data

We assess the importance of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) in Canada using employer‐level administrative data from the major wage settlements (MWS) and household‐based survey data from the Survey of Labour Income Dynamics (SLID). MWS data cover large unionized firms in Canada, while SLID is a rich rotating panel representative of the employed population in Canada. Combining both sources of information allows for an extensive analysis of DNWR in the Canadian labour market. We find large shares of wage freezes and smaller shares of wage cuts in both MWS and SLID. Shares of freezes are higher at lower CPI inflation rates, based on provincial data. These observations are consistent with the presence of DNWR. DNWR in Canada appears to be larger than in other countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom and European countries. The incidence of DNWR is heterogeneous across firms’ and workers’ characteristics. Wages report less DNWR over longer horizons.     

Economic integration and specialization in production in the EU27: does FDI influence countries’ specialization?

The objective of this article is twofold. Firstly, we proceed to an analysis of the evolution of specialization in production in the enlarged EU, taking into account all its 27 member countries. Given their decomposability properties, we use the entropy-based indices to measure countries’ relative specialization and then, given our rather short period of analysis, we use the bootstrap method to analyze the evolution of the specialization index. We first analyze all economic sectors and then, our analysis is more detailed focusing on manufacturing industries. Globally, we find that specialization is decreasing across all economic sectors, while it is increasing across manufacturing industries. Secondly, we study specialization determinants, with a special interest in the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI). For homogeneity reasons, we analyze two separate samples, one including old EU members plus Cyprus and Malta and the other, the CEECs. In order to take into account the endogeneity of most of our independent variables, we use the vector autoregression (VAR) technique and analyse the impulse response functions. Globally, FDIs seem to positively influence countries’ relative specialization, for our both samples and for both economic sectors and manufacturing industries. However, their impact appears weaker than most of the other independent variables, such as the market potential or the relative endowments.     

Going concern opinions and IPO pricing accuracy

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - In a marked shift, it has become relatively more common for ordinary initial public offerings (IPOs) to contain going concern opinions (GCOs) in...     

Designing electricity auctions

Motivated by the new auction format in the England and Wales electricity market, as well as the recent debate in California, we characterize bidding behavior and market outcomes in uniform and discriminatory electricity auctions. Uniform auctions result in higher average prices than discriminatory auctions, but the ranking in terms of productive efficiency is ambiguous. The comparative effects of other market design features, such as the number of steps in suppliers' bid functions, the duration of bids, and the elasticity of demand are analyzed. We also consider the relationship between market structure and market performance in the two auction formats.