Density Nowcasts and Model Combination: Nowcasting Euro‐Area GDP Growth over the 2008–09 Recession*

Combined density nowcasts for quarterly Euro‐area GDP growth are produced based on the real‐time performance of component models. Components are distinguished by their use of ‘hard’ and ‘soft’, aggregate and disaggregate, indicators. We consider the accuracy of the density nowcasts as within‐quarter indicator data accumulate. We find that the relative utility of ‘soft’ indicators surged during the recession. But as this instability was hard to detect in real‐time it helps, when producing density nowcasts unknowing any within‐quarter ‘hard’ data, to weight the different indicators equally. On receipt of ‘hard’ data for the second month in the quarter better calibrated densities are obtained by giving a higher weight in the combination to ‘hard’ indicators.     

Dual clocks: Entry order influences on incumbent and newcomer market share and survival when specialized assets retain their value

Entry order analysis often shows that early entrants to an industry or technical subfield of an industry outperform laggards. Some studies, though, have found that late entrants prevail. This paper tests dual-clock hypotheses of entry order effects on performance, measured both as market share and survival. One entry clock records the entry of all entrants to a new technical subfield within an industry, while a second clock records the entry of industry incumbents. Relative to the appropriate clock, early entrants are predicted to outperform laggards, but when entry is measured on only one clock, the estimated influences may be inaccurate. Error will be particularly likely if a study contains a survivor bias. The study, which finds entry timing trade-offs between market share and survival, is generalizable to cases in which a plausible set of conditions is found.     

Modeling Character: Servant Leaders,Incivility and Patient Outcomes

Journal of Business Ethics - Persistent and pervasive rudeness and lack of respect are unfortunately common in workplaces today. The deleterious effects of this incivility at work may be even worse...     

Love is in the air. Consumers' perception of products from firms signaling their family nature

Signaling consumers that the company behind a brand is run by a family is increasingly observable in the marketing realm. One possible reason could be the emotional value signaled by the family nature of the firm. Brand signals carrying emotional value might contribute to a competitive advantage. Since we do not fully understand the effect of signaling the family nature of a firm yet and as family represents an emotional context, we examine this effect on consumer perceptions of the products being made with more love by conducting two experimental studies. In Study 1 (N = 371) we find that the firm's family nature triggers a strong perception of love being part of the production process of the brand, which leads to a higher willingness to pay. Specifically, in Study 2 (N = 280) we designed a process manipulation study to provide causative experimental explanation of the process of Study I. Thereby, we contribute to psychology and marketing research by showing that consumers consider a product signaling the family nature of a firm more strongly to be made with love and are willing to pay a price premium. This effect is driven by positive feelings related to one's own family.     

Free ad(vice): internet influencers and disclosure regulation

Consumers rely on intermediaries (“influencers”) such as social media recommendations to provide information about products. The advice may be mixed with endorsement in a way that is unobservable to the follower, creating a trade‐off for influencers between the best advice and the most revenue. This article models the dynamic relationship between an influencer and a follower. The relationship evolves between periods of less and more revenue. The model can provide insight into policies such as the Federal Trade Commission's mandatory disclosure rules. An opt‐in policy may be superior: it deregulates influencers who are reaping the rewards of past good advice.