Investigation of factors affecting the diffusion of mobile telephone services: An empirical analysis for Vietnam

This paper analyzes the diffusion of mobile telecommunications services in Vietnam and examines how telecommunications regulation and potential substitute/complement services affect the growth of the number of mobile telephone subscribers. Using a logistic diffusion model, it is found that fixed telephone services are a complement while data services have a negative relation to mobile telephone services in Vietnam. As for regulation, the policy of introducing competition has been found to be the most effective in influencing the adoption of mobile services. Another important result is that the estimated potential market is roughly 76% of the total population. The findings suggest that suitable regulation that guarantees competition in the mobile telecommunications market in a developing country such as Vietnam is one of the most important factors for a positive diffusion process.     

Affluent mature consumers: Preference and patronisation for financial services

Mature consumers have long been recognised as an important segment of market that no marketers of financial-service providers could ignore. The segment itself, however, is not homogeneous. Our study further segments the market basing on income and contrasts the differences between upscale mature consumers and lower scale ones in terms of their preference and patronisation for financial services. The study based on two large-scale studies designed to generate information that would fill gaps in our existing knowledge about upscale older consumers. Implications are discussed for marketers of financial services to fine-tune their differentiation strategies.     

STRUCTURE AND PERFORMANCE OF THE UK FOOD AND DRINK INDUSTRIES

This paper analyses the structural characteristics of the food and drink industries and assesses their recent economic performance. Although classified among the less technologically intensive group of British manufacturing industries, the food and drink industries are found to share many of the features of the more technologically intensive group, such as product differentiation, product diversification and advertising intensity. They are also found to have achieved above-average growth in labour and total factor productivity through expansion in size, capital accumulation and shedding of labour.     

Modeling technical progress and total factor productivity: A plant level example

Shifts in the production frontier occur because of changes in technology. A model of how a firm learns to use the new technology, or how it adapts from the first production frontier to the second, is suggested. Two different adaptation paths are embodied in a translog cost function and its attendant cost share equations. The paths are the traditional linear time trend and a learning curve. The model is estimated using establishment level data from a non-regulated industry that underwent a technological shift in the time period covered by the data. The learning curve resulted in more plausible estimates of technical progress and total factor productivity growth patterns. A significant finding is that, at the establishment level, all inputs appear to be substitutes.This paper was processed by N.R. Adam.     

Time Series Based Errors and Empirical Errors in Fertility Forecasts in the Nordic Countries*

We use ARCH time series models to derive model based prediction intervals for the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark up to 2050. For the short term (5–10 yrs), expected TFR‐errors are compared with empirical forecast errors observed in historical population forecasts prepared by the statistical agencies in these countries since 1969. Medium‐term and long‐term (up to 50 years) errors are compared with error patterns based on so‐called naïve forecasts, i.e. forecasts that assume that recently observed TFR‐levels also apply for the future.     

THE ESTIMATED EFFECT OF CATHOLIC SCHOOLING ON EDUCATIONAL OUTCOMES USING PROPENSITY SCORE MATCHING

This paper examines the effect of attending a Catholic high school on educational outcomes. The statistical analysis is based on data obtained from the US National Educational Longitudinal Study. Using propensity score matching methods to control for selection bias, we find that Catholic schooling improves maths test scores, with stronger effects for males than for females, but appears to have little effect (if any) on reading scores. Catholic schooling also raises high school graduation rates and substantially increases the likelihood of enrolment in a 4‐year college. Use of the difference‐in‐difference method suggests that the effect of Catholic schooling on changes in maths scores is more muted, though still statistically significant.     

Adjustment costs and theory of investment under uncertainty

It is shown that the stochastic investment rule for the price-setting monopolist facing random demand differs from the deterministic rule, due to the presence of the covariance of the marginal utility of profits and the MRTS between capital and labor. For the risk-neutral quantity-setting monopolist, the optimal current investment under random demand is shown to be greater than that under deterministic conditions, given that production technology is of the Cobb-Douglas type with constant returns to scale. When random wages and prices follow first-order autoregressive schemes, the risk-neutral competitive firm's current investment level is shown to be at least equal to that under certainty.     

Identification of the Lorenz curve by Lorenz coefficient

Zusammenfassung Die Identifikation der Lorenzkurve durch Lorenzkoeffizienten. — Der aus der Lorenzkurve abgeleitete Gini-Koeffizient vermittelt einen guten Eindruck von dem Ma\ an Ungleichheit. W?hrend sich jedoch eine Lorenzkurve auf den Gini-Koeffizienten im Verh?ltnis eins zu eins übertragen l?\t, entspricht — in der entgegengesetzten Richtung — ein Gini-Koeffizient mehreren Lorenzkurven. In dieser Untersuchung wird die Lorenzkurve in einzelne Abschnitte aufgeteilt. Dann wird jedem Abschnitt ein gewogener Lorenz-Koeffizient zugeordnet, wodurch es m?glich wird, Lorenzkurven mit identischen Gini-Koeffizienten zu unterscheiden. Die Verbindung zwischen jedem Kurvenpaar kann aufgehoben werden, indem man von Abschnitt zu Abschnitt die jeweiligen Lorenz-Koeffizienten vergleicht. Ein empirisches Beispiel ist in dem Artikel enthalten.

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Résumé L’identification de la courbe de Lorenz par le coefficient de Lorenz. — Le coefficient de Gini dérivé de la courbe de Lorenz exprime un degré considérable de sens intuitif pour la mesure de l’inégalité. La reproduction de la courbe de Lorenz en coefficient de Gini est cependant dans le rapport un à un, celle du coefficient de Gini en courbe de Lorenz un à beaucoup. Cette étude veut partager la courbe de Lorenz en piéces détachées. Un sous-coefficient pondéré de Lorenz est associé avec chaque partie, une méthode qui permet à différencier les courbes de Lorenz avec des coefficients identiques de Gini. Le lien entre chaque paire de courbes peut être détaché si on part d’une comparaison de chaque sous-coefficient de Lorenz de partie à partie. L’auteur fournit une application empirique.

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Resumen Identificación de la curva de Lorenz por medio del coeficiente de Lorenz. — El coeficiente de Gini derivado de la curva de Lorenz transmite sentimientos intuitivos considerables para la medida de desigualdad. Sin embargo, el desdibujamiento de la curva de Lorenz hacia el coeficiente de Gini es uno a uno y el del coeficiente de Gini hacia la curva de Lorenz de uno a muchas veces. En este estudio se divide la curva de Lorenz en partes. Un sub-coeficiente de Lorenz se asocia con cada parte permitiéndonos diferenciar curvas de Lorenz con idénticos coeficientes de Gini. La unión entre cualquier par se puede quebrar procediendo a comparar cada sub-coeficiente de Lorenz de parte en parte. Se presenta una aplicación empírica.

     

Estimating the price deflator for nominal cash balances

A differential money demand equation is used to estimate the weight given to each commodity group in the price index which transforms nominal into real cash balances. The results indicate that food receives the largest weight and that the CPI is a good proxy for the true deflator.     

Rentenversicherung, Bev?lkerungsentwicklung und Kapitalmarktrendite – Eine Simulationsrechnung

How can the pension schemes be sustainably financed? This is an important issue particularly with regard to the demographic changes in many industrialized countries but also in other emerging economies such as China and India. In this paper, we use a macroeconomic model of overlapping generations to analyze the impacts of the demographic changes as well as the interactions between pension system, bond and stock markets. Furthermore, we examine how the pension system influences the distribution of wealth, consumption and saving within generations. We found out that an aging population will cause a drastic decline. Moreover, we examined which impacts on individuals?? welfare demographic changes can have for an existing pay-as-you-go pension scheme. An increase of pension age combined with a decrease of the contributions seems to be the best policy. On the other hand, increases in contributions as a result of demographic changes show the highest welfare losses.