The spillover effect of the US uncertainty on emerging economies: a panel VAR approach

The article quantifies the spillover effects of the United States’ (US) uncertainty shocks on emerging economies, using a panel VAR model. We find that the US uncertainty shocks are the risks, and hence drop the capital inflow, investment, consumption, export and output of emerging economies. This also induces a depreciation of emerging market currencies. As a result, our model predicts a fall in short-term interest rate of emerging economies to react against the US uncertainty shocks. Our findings partly help explain the slow recovery of the world economy after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis.     

Vertical specialization in the EU and the causality of trade

We use a novel classification scheme to identify three stages of production in the manufacturing sector: parts, components and final goods. In particular, we offer evidence on the revealed comparative advantage of the EU-27 countries concerning the three vertically separated stages of production. Moreover, we investigate whether, and if so how, imports of parts, and components can work as a predictor for the exports of final goods. We find that countries specialize at different stages of production, and that components are Granger causal for the export of final goods in many countries with a lag of 3 months.     

Decomposing the operational efficiency of major cruise lines: A network data envelopment analysis approach in the presence of shared input and quasi-fixed input

To examine the top cruise lines' operational efficiency in three dimensions, namely, production, marketing, and profitability, this study adopts a network data envelopment analysis approach considering shared and quasi-fixed input factors. The empirical results reveal the following findings. First, the production process tends to outperform marketing and profitability processes. Second, inefficiency of a cruise line mostly stems from overconsumption of the exogenous inputs in each process and the shared input. Third, the relationships between operational efficiency of cruise lines and some categorical factors are examined. Finally, some managerial implications derived from the empirical results are formulated for cruise lines.     

越南税收行政改革

该文分析了越南税收行政改革取得的突破性进展,提出了新时期税收行政改革的基本方向和措施。     

THE BEHAVIOR OF U.S. PUBLIC DEBT AND DEFICITS DURING THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

In this paper we test the sustainability of U.S. public debt for the period 1916–2012 by analyzing how the primary surplus to gross domestic product (GDP) responds to changes in the debt to GDP ratio in a time‐varying parameter model. Further, we determine the stationarity property of the debt/GDP ratio while accommodating possible breaks in the data caused by wars and economic crisis under both the null and alternative hypotheses of an endogenous unit root test. The results show that the U.S. public debt was sustainable until 2005 when the primary surplus to GDP reacted negatively to the debt/income ratio. This is further exacerbated during the global financial crisis when primary surpluses continued to fall with increased debt, thus jeopardizing the sustainability of fiscal policy. While the stationarity test shows that the U.S. fiscal debt/GDP ratio is sustainable, it fails to highlight the risk that its debt policy has been becoming unsustainable in recent years. (JEL H62, E62, C2)     

Local Governance: Impacts of Fiscal Decentralization on Government Size and Spending Composition in Vietnam*

The study provides an understanding of the impacts of fiscal decentralization and local governance on government size and spending composition. We use a balanced panel data set of 63 provinces of Vietnam over the 2006–2015 period. By estimating the spatial Durbin model, we find that local public spending and government size grow over time and have spatial spillovers. Fiscal decentralization significantly reduces public spending and government size, which supports the Leviathan hypothesis. More interestingly, combining local governance, the marginal spatial spillover effects of the fiscal decentralization on public spending and government size are intensified. Our findings imply that local governments should enhance interregional collaboration in fiscal management to limit duplicate public spending and promote regional sustainable development.     

BUSINESS CYCLES IN SMALL OPEN ECONOMIES: EVIDENCE FROM PANEL DATA BETWEEN 1900 AND 2013

Using a novel data set for 17 countries between 1900 and 2013, we characterize business cycles in both small developed and developing countries in a model with financial frictions and a common shock structure. We estimate the model jointly for these 17 countries using Bayesian methods. We find that financial frictions are an important feature for not only developing but also small developed countries. Furthermore, business cycles in both groups of countries are marked with trend productivity shocks. Common disturbances explain one third of the fluctuations in small open economies, especially during important worldwide phenomena.     

Internet use and agricultural productivity in rural Vietnam

The use of the internet is growing rapidly and has become an engine for economic development. However, few studies have examined the impact of internet use on agricultural production, and the results are not yet conclusive. Employing a dataset of more than 2000 observations in rural Vietnam, our study analyses the impact of internet use on agricultural productivity using the heteroscedasticity-based instrument approach suggested by Lewbel, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2012, 30, 67–80 and examines the heterogeneity and distribution of the impact using quantile regressions. Our results show that internet use has significant and positive effects on agricultural productivity. However, these effects are heterogeneous across population groups. The positive effects of internet use are stronger for households with a lower level of education, with a young and female head, and from ethnic minorities. The benefits are also found to be skewed towards the group of farmers at the bottom of the productivity distribution. Therefore, we propose facilitating the diffusion of the internet, since it not only boosts agricultural productivity, but also reduces productivity inequality. In addition, we recommend promoting rural education, supporting local markets, investing more in irrigation systems, and facilitating farm mechanisation as these factors are found to contribute to increasing agricultural productivity.     

Trade and employment in Vietnam: how firms' trade matters

This paper aims to analyse how employment and wages change when a firm's trade status is altered. Using a detailed firm-level dataset of Vietnamese manufacturing enterprises, the study finds that how firms trade matters for firm employment and wages in Vietnam. The average effect of one-way trading (exporting or importing) is positive for both firms' total employment and female employment. Direct trading activities are associated with a higher level of employment than indirect trading activities by firms. The female employment effect of direct exports is nearly three times higher than direct imports. Indirect imports hurt firms' total employment and female employment. Both direct and indirect two-way traders experience higher growth in firm employment than direct-only traders. However, it is interesting to note that indirect two-way trading activities have a positive impact on female employment. Furthermore, the commencement of direct import is also associated with greater labour cost advantage.     

Poverty and Inequality Maps in Rural Vietnam: An Application of Small Area Estimation

The objective of the present paper is to estimate poverty and inequality for rural Vietnam at different levels of aggregation by combining the Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey from 2006 and the Rural Agriculture and Fishery Census from the same year. Using the small area estimation method, estimates at the regional, provincial and district level are produced, and both expenditure and income based measures are considered. It is found that all provinces across the country have experienced a noticeable reduction in rural poverty during the period 1999–2006. Some of the largest reductions in poverty are observed for provinces with poverty rates close to the national average. The poorest provinces are experiencing reductions in poverty, albeit at a more modest pace. Provinces and districts with a larger poverty reduction in the period 1999–2006 tended to have a lower level of inequality in 2006. Results based on expenditure poverty estimates are found to be very similar to those based on income poverty estimates.