Do Energy Prices Affect U.S. Investor Sentiment?

The current literature has examined the effect of investor sentiment on energy prices, but no study ever has explored the validity of the reverse question. Therefore, this article explore whether energy prices (i.e., crude oil and natural gas prices) affect U.S. investor sentiment, using the methodology of quantile regression. The empirical results document that controlling for a number of U.S. macroeconomic and financial factors, there exists a statistically significant association between oil and natural gas prices and investor sentiment. However, only natural gas prices appear to retain their statistical significance over the majority of quantiles. These findings received robust support under alternative measures of the investor sentiment index.     

Costs and effectiveness of fingolimod versus alemtuzumab in the treatment of highly active relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis in the UK: re-treatment,discount, and disutility

Objective: Patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) treated with disease modifying therapies (DMTs) who continue to experience disease activity may be considered for escalation therapies such as fingolimod, or may be considered for alemtuzumab. Previous economic modeling used Markov models; applying one alternative technique, discrete event simulation (DES) modeling, allows re-treatment and long-term adverse events (AEs) to be included in the analysis.

Methods: A DES was adapted to model relapse-triggered re-treatment with alemtuzumab and the effect of including ongoing quality-adjusted life year (QALY) decrements for AEs that extend beyond previous 1-year Markov cycles. As the price to the NHS of fingolimod in the UK is unknown, due to a confidential patient access scheme (PAS), a variety of possible discounts were tested. The interaction of re-treatment assumptions for alemtuzumab with the possible discounts for fingolimod was tested to determine which DMT resulted in lower lifetime costs. The lifetime QALY results were derived from modeled treatment effect and short- and long-term AEs.

Results: Most permutations of fingolimod PAS discount and alemtuzumab re-treatment rate resulted in fingolimod being less costly than alemtuzumab. As the percentage of patients who are re-treated with alemtuzumab due to experiencing a relapse approaches 100% of those who relapse whilst on treatment, the discount required for fingolimod to be less costly drops below 5%. Consideration of treatment effect alone found alemtuzumab generated 0.2 more QALYs/patient; the inclusion of AEs up to a duration of 1 year reduced this advantage to only 0.14 QALYs/patient. Modeling AEs with a lifetime QALY decrement found that both DMTs generated very similar QALYs with the difference only 0.04 QALYs/patient.

Conclusions: When the model captured alemtuzumab re-treatment and long-term AE decrements, it was found that fingolimod is cost-effective compared to alemtuzumab, assuming application of only a modest level of confidential PAS discount.     

Errors, robustness, and the fourth quadrant

The paper presents evidence that econometric techniques based on variance–L² norm–are flawed and do not replicate. The result is un-computability of the role of tail events. The paper proposes a methodology to calibrate decisions to the degree (and computability) of forecast error. It classifies decision payoffs in two types: simple (true/false or binary) and complex (higher moments); and randomness into type-1 (thin tails) and type-2 (true fat tails), and shows the errors for the estimation of small probability payoffs for type 2 randomness. The fourth quadrant is where payoffs are complex with type-2 randomness. We propose solutions to mitigate the effect of the fourth quadrant, based on the nature of complex systems.     

Network structure and robustness: lessons for research programme design

The information and communication technology (ICT) network of the last two European Research Framework Programmes (FPs) is deeply influenced by two distinct groups of organizations: a small group of hubs (3% of the participants) hold the key to keeping the network together and a second group of non-hub connectors large enough (39% of the participants) with a significant share of the overall networking activity provide a robust base for the network. The ICT network can survive the removal of single important funding instruments such as integrated projects or specific targeted research projects. Increasing policy rhetoric on innovative application in the new FP (Horizon 2020) should be reflected in a shift of core participants from largely public research and teaching organizations to private-sector companies.     

Long-run estimates of money demand: new evidence from East Asian countries and the presence of structural breaks

Conventionally, the money demand function is estimated using a linear regression of the logarithm of money demand on a number of variables. In this article, we aim to estimate the long-run properties of money demand specification for a number of East Asian economies and within a panel framework with the presence of structural breaks. Various country-specific coefficients are allowed to capture inter-country heterogeneities. Consistent with theoretical postulates, it is found that (a) the demand for money in the long-run positively responds to real income and inversely to the interest rate spread, inflation, the real effective exchange rate and the US real interest rate; (b) the long-run income elasticity is greater than unity; and (c) both the currency substitution and capital mobility hypotheses hold. The empirical findings in this article can provide useful policy guidelines to the East Asian countries’ central banks in their quest for price stability. If one of the primary objectives of these countries is to minimize price instability, they should avoid creating unnecessary disequilibrium in the money market, while the employment of cointegration with the presence of structural breaks clearly recommends to central banks to use the supply of money to attain price and macroeconomic stability.     

A Macroeconomic Stabilization Game: Design,Development, and Testing

The author describes a computer game involving macroeconomic stabilization policy. Students are asked to take the part of government in manipulating tax rates, expenditures, monetary policy in an attempt to influence employment and inflation in an open economy.     

中国经济再平衡的算术题

本文认为,只要中国经济保持较快增长,降低投资增速,扩大消费支出,实现年均GDP增速7.5%,投资占GDP比重年均下降1%,消费水平年均增长9.7%,中国可能在10年内实现经济再平衡。而且,政治改革并非经济再平衡的前提条件。     

Creative Problem Solving in GSS Groups: Do Creative Styles Matter?

Creative groups drive innovation and organizational change and collaborative systems can be used to pool creative team members across the globe. How individual creative preference impacts the group’s creative performance across different creative problem solving phases in a GSS environment is not well understood. The objective of this exploratory study was to understand if there are differences in group performance when groups with varying member creative styles interact solely via GSS. We conducted a quasi-experimental study that compared the performance of groups with two alternate member styles interacting only via group support systems during a creative problem solving process. Ideator and Evaluator groups were compared on their divergent and convergent phase performance. Significant differences were found between the Ideator groups and Evaluator groups on idea fluency, idea flexibility, idea novelty, idea elaboration and solution cost-effectiveness. No significant differences were found between the performance of the two groups on solution feasibility and novelty. Results indicate that member creative styles play an important role in determining the performance of technology-supported groups. These results aid researchers and practitioners by improving their understanding of the performance of creative teams interacting solely via collaborative support systems for creative problem solving tasks.     

A Comparative Analysis of Curriculum in International Marketing and Business Between Peruvian and Guatemalan University Students

Business education is important for economic development. A skilled workforce allows for greater advancements in productivity, the creation of new business opportunities, increased employment, and enhances the quality of life of the citizenry. With the changing international business environment it is important for academics and practitioners alike to understand the methods, techniques, and activities being used to train future business leaders. This article investigates the context, content, and delivery of business education in Peru and Guatemala. It analyzes the business education structure and curriculum content of two universities that have successfully implemented comprehensive international business programs. Data for this article was collected in Peru and Guatemala and reflects the students' perspective on the international business curriculums of their respective programs of study.