Debreu’s social equilibrium theorem with asymmetric information and a continuum of agents

We provide several different generalizations of Debreu’s social equilibrium theorem by allowing for asymmetric information and a continuum of agents. The results not only extend the ones in Kim and Yannelis (J Econ Theory 77:330–353, 1977), Yannelis and Rustichini (Stud Econ Theory 2:23–48, 1991), but also new theorems are obtained which allow for a convexifying effect on aggregation (non-concavity assumption on the utility functions) and non-convex strategy sets (pure strategies). This is achieved by imposing the assumption of “many more agents than strategies” (Rustichini and Yannelis in Stud Econ Theory 1:249–265, 1991; Tourky and Yannelis in J Econ Theory 101:189–221, 2001; Podczeck in Econ Theory 22:699–725, 2003). To the memory of Gerard Debreu. A preliminary draft was presented in Paris, in April of 2005. I have benefited from the discussion, comments and questions of Erik Balder, Jean-Marc Bonnisseu, Bernard Cornet and Filipe Martins Da-Rocha and Conny Podczeck. A careful and knowledgeable referee made several useful comments and rescued me from a mishap.     

Bayesian–Walrasian equilibria: beyond the rational expectations equilibrium

In general rational expectations equilibrium (REE), as introduced in Radner (Econometrica 47:655–678, 1978) in an Arrow–Debreu–McKenzie setting with uncertainty, does not exist. Moreover, it fails to be fully Pareto optimal and incentive compatible and is also not implementable as a perfect Bayesian equilibrium of an extensive form game (Glycopantis et al. in Econ Theory 26:765–791, 2005). The lack of all the above properties is mainly due to the fact that the agents are supposed to predict the equilibrium market clearing price (as agent’s expected maximized utility is conditioned on the information that equilibrium prices reveal), which leads inevitably to the presumption that agents know all the primitives in the economy, i.e., random initial endowments, random utility functions and private information sets. To get around this problematic equilibrium notion, we introduce a new concept called Bayesian–Walrasian equilibrium (BWE) which has Bayesian features. In particular, agents try to predict the market-clearing prices using Bayesian updating and evaluate their consumption in terms of Bayesian price estimates, which are different for each individual. In this framework agents maximize expected utility conditioned on their own private information about the state of nature, subject to a Bayesian estimated budget constraint. Market clearing is not an intrinsic part of the definition of BWE. However, both in the case of perfect foresight and in the case of symmetric information BWE leads to a statewise market clearing; it then becomes an ex post Walrasian equilibrium allocation. This new BWE exists under standard assumptions, in contrast to the REE. In particular, we show that our new BWE exists in the well-known example in Kreps (J Econ Theory 14:32–43, 1977), where REE fails to exist. This work was done in the Spring of 2005, when EJB was a visiting professor at the University of Illinois.     

Valuing climate protection through willingness to pay for biomass ethanol

This study uses a multi-part, split-sample contingent valuation method (CVM) and fair share (FS) survey to better understand the public's valuation of mitigating global climate change through its willingness to pay for biomass or “cellulosic” ethanol. In addition to a basic CVM question, a related scenario was developed that asked half of the survey respondents to state their fair share cost to lessen a potential food shortage in the next decade, also through the expanded use of cellulosic ethanol. Three alternative biomass feedstocks were assessed: farming residues, forestry residues and paper mill wastes, and municipal solid wastes. Overall a slightly larger proportion of respondents were WTP extra for cellulosic ethanol in the basic CVM scenario than in the FS scenario, though no significant differences were found in the WTP for the different feedstocks. Bid curve lognormal regression results for the two models were similar, supporting the idea that asking a FS rather than a conventional WTP question may be justifiable in some circumstances, such as in cases of a national emergency.     

European Union enlargement: An historic milestone in the process of European integration

Ten European countries with economies in transition and two market economies are negotiating full membership with the European Union. This paper considers the economic dimension of the forthcoming enlargement of the European Union, especially on the characteristics of the economies in transition and on the economic implications of the enlargement for European Union agriculture. The transition of the central and eastern European countries from a centrally planned to a market economy, although already in progress for a decade, is far from complete. Uneven macroeconomic developments in the various countries can be attributed to some extent to their individual situation at the start of the transformation. However, they also reflect the varying extent to which institutional reform programs have been implemented in these countries.Distinguished Address presented at the Fifty-First International Atlantic Economic Conference, March 13–20, 2001, Athens, Greece.     

Stock returns and volatility: Evidence from the Athens Stock market index

This paper investigates the volatility of the Athens Stock excess stock returns over the period 1990–1999 through the comparison of various conditional hetero-skedasticity models. The empirical results indicate that there is significant evidence for asymmetry in stock returns, which is captured by a quadratic GARCH specification model, while there is strong persistence of shocks into volatility.     

International Comparisons of Labour Productivity in Transport and Communications: The US,the UK and Germany

We construct benchmark estimates of labour productivity covering the transport and communications sectors for the US, UK and Germany for 1992 and 1993. The US lead is substantial in rail and trucking, even after adjusting for differences in stage length, but Britain leads in air transport and all three countries have similar productivity levels in local transport. In telecommunications and postal services the US enjoys a large lead over both the UK and Germany. We compare these estimates based on industry data with ones derived from the national accounts and find them similar in communications but not in transport. For 1973–96, and also 1989–96, productivity was growing slower in the US, hence some of the gap has been closed.     

Rural in-migration and agricultural development: Evidence from Zambia

While a considerable body of literature has developed in recent years around the drivers and consequences of rural out-migration in sub-Saharan Africa, relatively little work has been done to understand the impacts of migration into rural areas. We use nationally representative household survey data from Zambia to explore the relationship between rural in-migration and agricultural productivity outcomes in receiving communities. We document high levels of rural in-migration throughout Zambia—12% of rural household heads having moved from elsewhere within the previous 10 years—with two-thirds of rural in-migrants originating from other rural areas. Migrants are, on average, better endowed with capital resources than their nonmigrant neighbors and are more engaged with input and output markets. After controlling for other factors, we find that higher rates of rural in-migration are associated with greater agricultural productivity outcomes in receiving communities. These positive associations are particularly pronounced in more remote rural areas, and where in-migration originates from other rural areas. Taken together, our results suggest that rural in-migrants play an important role in the rural transformation processes underway in Zambia.     

Stock Price Reactions to Wire News from the European Central Bank: Evidence from Changes in the Sentiment Tone and International Market Indexes

International Advances in Economic Research - This paper examines the link between changes in the sentiment tone with respect to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) announcements and stock...     

The Role of ICT in Modulating the Effect of Education and Lifelong Learning on Income Inequality and Economic Growth in Africa

This study assesses the role of information and communication technologies (ICT) in modulating the impact of education and lifelong learning on income inequality and economic growth. It focuses on a sample of 48 African countries from 2004 to 2014. The empirical evidence is based on the generalized method of moments. The following findings are established. First, mobile phone and internet each interact with primary school education to decrease income inequality. Second, all ICT indicators interact with secondary school education to exert a negative impact on the Gini index. Third, fixed broadband distinctly interacts with primary school education and lifelong learning to have a positive effect on economic growth. Fourth, ICT indicators do not significantly influence inequality and economic growth through tertiary school education and lifelong learning. These main findings are further substantiated. Policy implications are discussed.     

Linking the defence of territory to food sovereignty: Peasant environmentalisms and extractive neoliberalism in Guatemala

Food sovereignty and the defence of territory are increasingly influential environmental paradigms for rural social movements in opposition to free market hegemony in the global south. These paradigms propose radical alternatives to growth based economies, unequal property regimes, and the absolute territorial sovereignty of nation states. Drawing on fieldwork in rural Guatemala with progressive NGOs and social movements, this essay describes these tendencies' origins and characteristic discourses and demands, examines their links to traditional peasant politics and indigenous rights movements, and assesses their divergences, limitations, and possibilities for synergy. Building on Joan Martínez‐Alier' conception of the “environmentalism of the poor”, I show how these “peasant environmentalisms” converge and reinforce one another while responding to different aspects of neoliberalism's threat to lives, livelihoods, and territories during Guatemala's conflict‐ridden transition to neoliberal democracy. I also discuss how their convergence has expanded thinking about territorial alternatives and suggest that holding these paradigms in tension is vital to build broad coalitions among a fragmented peasantry. I propose food sovereignty as the economic model of the plurinational state.