Federally subsidized occupational training and the employment and earnings of male trainees

The impact of MDTA training on the earnings and employment probabilities of male trainees are studied on the basis of a longitudinal data set on trainees and non-trainees. Econometric techniques which eliminate many of the ambiguities in interpreting previous estimates are used. It is found that the program had little or no effect on employment or earnings of trainees in the late sixties (relative to continued normal employment). It is suggested that the program be interpreted as a pure income-maintenance program rather than a subsidized skill-acquisition program.     

Reinterpreting the convict labour market

The convicts transported to NSW between 1817 and 1840 were young, fit, highly literate and brought occupational skills which were broadly representative of the British and Irish working classes. In the colonial labour market where convicts were coerced, more labour was forthcoming and at a lower wage than in a free labour market. The assignment of convict labour in the colony was efficient; skilled urban and construction tradesmen were employed in the same jobs in NSW as they had held in Britain. Domestic servants and unskilled urban workers whose skills were not suited to the needs of the colony experienced job restructuring. The organization of convict workers into teams and gangs in Australia was similar to the way work was organized in free labour Britain, and a mbc of incentives and rewards characterized the extraction of work from convicts. The human capital of the transportees and the labour system within which they worked help to explain the rapid growth of the colonial economy before 1840.     

Identifying restrictions in limited information analysis of the schooling coefficient in a wage equation

Identifying restrictions underlying limited information estimates of the coefficients of a wage equation are considered from a Bayesian point of view. Within this framework ‘exclusion’ restrictions need not be imposed exactly, and it becomes possible to consider the marginal densities of interesting coefficients as functions of the tightness of these restrictions. In the application considered here the posterior mean for the schooling and test-score coefficients in a wage equation are examined as identifying restrictions are relaxed. The paper also serves as an example of the feasibility of Bayesian limited information analysis of a current economic issue.     

Liquidity constraints, precautionary saving and aggregate consumption: an international comparison

This paper has three objectives. First, to expand Hall's [J. Polit. Econ. 86 (1978) 971] rational expectations permanent income/life cycle hypotheses (REPIH/RELCH) representative agent model to allow for current income consumers, the durable component of total consumer expenditures and for intertemporal substitution, which are often cited as the main reasons for the rejection of Hall's model. Second, to apply this modified model to 20 OECD countries over the post-World War II period. The GMM estimation method is employed. Third, to examine the relative influence of liquidity constraints and precautionary saving on the cross-country variation in the proportion of current income consumers, using cross-country regressions and a non-linear model of panel data. The presence of current income consumers, which is primarily due to liquidity constraints and to a lesser extent to precautionary saving, is the major factor for the rejection of the basic REPIH/RELCH model in all OECD countries.     

Poverty Mapping with Aggregate Census Data: What is the Loss in Precision?

Spatially disaggregated maps of the incidence of poverty can be constructed by combining household survey data and census data. In some countries (notably China and India), national statistics agencies are reluctant, for reasons of confidentiality, to release household‐level census data, but they are generally more willing to release aggregated census data, such as village‐ or district‐level means. This paper examines the loss in precision associated with using aggregated census data instead of household‐level data to generate poverty estimates. The authors show analytically that using aggregated census data will result in poverty rates that are biased downward (upward) if the rate is below (above) 50%, and that the bias approaches zero as the poverty rate approaches zero, 50%, and 100%. Using data from Vietnam, it is found that the mean absolute error in estimating district‐level poverty rates is 2.5 percentage points if the census data are aggregated to the enumeration‐area level means, and 3–4 percentage points if the data are aggregated to commune or district level. Finally, the authors propose a method for reducing the error using variances calculated from the census. When this approach is applied to the Vietnam data, this method can cut the size of the aggregation errors by around 75%.     

Bonus-Malus Systems with Two-Component Mixture Models Arising from Different Parametric Families

Two-component mixture distributions defined so that the component distributions do not necessarily arise from the same parametric family are employed for the construction of Optimal Bonus-Malus Systems (BMSs) with frequency and severity components. The proposed modeling framework is used for the first time in actuarial literature research and includes an abundance of alternative model choices to be considered by insurance companies when deciding on their Bonus-Malus pricing strategies. Furthermore, we advance one step further by assuming that all the parameters and mixing probabilities of the two component mixture distributions are modeled in terms of covariates. Applying Bayes' theorem we derive optimal BMSs either by updating the posterior probability of the policyholders’ classes of risk or by updating the posterior mean and the posterior variance. The resulting tailor-made premiums are calculated via the expected value and variance principles and are compared to those based only on the a posteriori criteria. The use of the variance principle in a Bonus-Malus ratemaking scheme in a way that takes into consideration both the number and the costs of claims based on both the a priori and the a posterior classification criteria has not yet been proposed and can alter the resulting premiums significantly, providing the actuary with useful alternative tariff structures.     

Augmenting the Input–Output Framework for ‘Common Pool’ Resources: Operationalising the Full Leontief Environmental Model

In its initial formulation, the full Leontief (1970) Leontief, W. 1970. Environmental repercussions and the economic structure: an input–output approach. Review of Economics and Statistics, 52: 262–277. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar] environmental model augments the conventional Input–Output (IO) table by introducing pollution generation and separately identified pollution elimination sectors. Essentially it extends IO analysis to incorporate the use of a ‘common pool’ resource. Subsequent literature has either been analytical in nature or has concentrated on pollution generation but not cleaning activity. In this paper we generate an empirical full Leontief environmental IO system, based on augmenting the existing Scottish IO tables through endogenising waste generation and waste disposal activity. Due to weaknesses in data, our empirical results need to be treated with some caution. However, the construction of the extended IO system and the interpretation of the output and price multiplier results raise a number of interesting practical and conceptual issues. The analysis undertaken here can be extended to other ‘common pool’ resources such as the use of highways and irrigation systems.