La détection précoce des difficultés financeères des entreprises laitières québécoises

La demande importante d'investissements pour assurer la pérennité des entreprises agricoles rend ces dernières paradoxalement plus fragiles. Identifier les critères qui permettent de déceler de façon précoce les difficultés financières serait donc d'une grande utilité pour les agriculteurs.
De la banque de données Agritel, les données de 67 entreprises saines et de 41 entreprises qui ont connu des difficultés financières en 1992 sont utilisées. Les donnèes des annèes 1988 à 1992 sont utilisées. Des modèles de règression logistique et d'analyse discriminante ont été adoptés. Pour cette dernière, un modèle d'analyse discriminante non paramétrique a également été employé.
Le contrôle des dettes, tant à court terme qu'à moyen et long termes, apparaît essentiel. Des dettes à court terme èlevées caractérisent les entreprises défaillantes dès 1988. De plus, les entreprises doivent parvenir à des résultats technico-économiques suffisants pour atteindre un niveau minimum de viabilité. Enfin, les excès d'actifs non productifs doivent être contrôlés, car de telles immobilisations affectent la rentabilité de l'entreprise. Ainsi, trois dimensions doivent être considérées pour une détection efficace des difficultés financières.
Une analyse à partir de cinq ratios nous permet de prévoir des difficultés cinq ans avant leur apparition.     

Is it my money or not? An experiment on risk aversion and the house-money effect

The house-money effect, understood as people’s tendency to be more daring with easily-gotten money, is a behavioral pattern that poses questions about the external validity of experiments in economics: to what extent do people behave in experiments like they would have in a real-life situation, given that they play with easily-gotten house money? We ran an economic experiment with 122 students to measure the house-money effect on their risk preferences. They received an amount of money with which they made risky decisions involving losses and gains; a randomly selected treatment group received the money 21 days in advance and a control group got it the day of the experiment. From a simple calculation we found that participants in the treatment group only spent on average approximately 35 % of their cash in advance. The data confirms the well documented results that men are more tolerant to risk than women, and that individuals in general are more risk tolerant towards losses than towards gains. With our preferred specification, we find a mean CRRA risk aversion coefficient of 0.34, with a standard deviation of 0.09. Furthermore, if subjects in the treatment group spent 35 % of the endowment their CRRA risk aversion coefficient is higher than that of the control group by approximately 0.3 standard deviations. We interpret this result as evidence of a small and indirect house money effect operating though the amount of the cash in advance that was actually spent. We conclude that the house money effect may play a small role in decisions under uncertainty, especially when involving losses. Our novel design, however, could be used for other domains of decision making both in the lab and for calibration of economic models used in micro and macroeconomics.     

An application of Ramsey theorem to stopping games

We prove that every two-player nonzero-sum deterministic stopping game with uniformly bounded payoffs admits an -equilibrium, for every >0. The proof uses Ramsey Theorem that states that for every coloring of a complete infinite graph by finitely many colors there is a complete infinite subgraph which is monochromatic.     

Comprehensive indicators of traffic-related premature mortality

Motor vehicle circulation is associated with multiple social benefits; nevertheless, it is widely acknowledged that it also produces a variety of adverse health effects, of which the most relevant are associated with mortality from road accidents and exposure to atmospheric pollution. Though in Chile these impacts have been quantified and evaluated independently, no indicators have been developed so far to account for this activity’s global impact on public health, or to express the individual impact that can be attributed to each vehicle category. In order to fill this void, the present study aimed at designing and quantifying indicators that account for the global impact on health that different motor vehicle categories impose on Chilean society. Health impact was quantified as the number of expected premature deaths caused by road accidents and exposure to atmospheric pollutants. Total premature mortality was understood as the total annual deaths that occurred as a consequence of road accidents and the exposure to O₃ and PM_2.5 derived from traffic-related emissions of its precursors. All estimations were made considering Chile’s Metropolitan Region in 2005 as a basic scenario. Differentiated indicators were obtained for 15 vehicle categories as a function of different parameters: traveled kilometer, vehicle, and vehicle lifetime. According to our results, when the health impact of traffic accidents and exposure to traffic-related air pollution are considered simultaneously, major differences were observed with the indicators traditionally used by regulators involved in the traffic-related decision-making process. The implications of our results on risk management strategies are discussed.     

The deep-pocket effect of internal capital markets

We provide evidence that incumbent and entrant firms' access to business group deep pockets affects the entry patterns in product markets. Relying on a unique French data set on business groups, our paper shows that entry into manufacturing industries is negatively related to the cash hoarded by incumbent affiliated groups and positively related to entrant groups' cash. In line with theoretical predictions, we find that the impact of group cash holdingson entry is more important in environments where financial constraints are pronounced. The cash holdings of incumbent and entrant groups also affect the survival rate of entrants in the three- to five-year post-entry window. Overall, our findings suggest that internal capital markets operate within corporate groups and affect the product market behavior of affiliated firms by mitigating financial constraints.     

A case study of ethical/green/environmental funds,corporate governance and stakeholder management

This paper investigates how far green, ethical and/or environmental funds are deployed to represent the interests of the individual investors and to what extent the business community is encouraged to adopt ‘greener’ behaviour. Data were collected through a questionnaire and developed in the form of a case study. Twenty green ethical and environmental funds were surveyed in the UK. The main findings are that fund managers claim that their funds are invested on behalf of the investors. They see their fund promoting the ethical/environmental values of the investors. Fund managers further think that they have an influence on companies they invest in and believe in encouraging companies to become better corporate citizens. There is, however, little evidence of funds' action on companies. While green/ethical funds, and more generally the financial community, are potentially powerful instruments of change, they are, however, still very much governed by conventional financial tools and criteria.     

CRITICAL STOCK PRICE NEAR EXPIRATION

We study the critical price of an American put option near expiration in the Black-Scholes model. Our main result is an estimate for the difference ( t )- K between the critical price at time t and the exercise price as t approaches the maturity of the option.     

Hotel characteristics and occupancy trends: Yorkshire and Humberside hotels, UK, April 1982–March 1984

This study extends the analysis of hotel occupancy in Yorkshire and Humberside, UK, hotels reported in the March 1985 issue of this journal, and confirms the ‘stability’ of the three previously identified dimensions of occupancy performance which reflect differences in overall occupancy levels, intensity of seasonal fluctuations, and length of season. The focus shifts to the identification and interpretation of longer term trends in occupancy performance. The results of a questionnaire survey of hotels are used in a stepwise regression model to relate occupancy trends to a range of ‘predictor’ variables measuring different aspects of the hotels and their management.