Health effects on labour market exits and entries

This paper analyses the role of health on exits out of and entries into employment using data from the first twelve waves of the British Household Panel Survey (1991–2002). We use discrete-time duration models to estimate the effect of health on the hazard of becoming non-employed and on the hazard of becoming employed. The results show that general health, measured by a variable that captures health limitations and by a constructed latent health index, affects entries into and exits out of employment; the effects being higher for men than for women. The results are robust to different definitions of employment, and to the exclusion of older workers from the analysis.     

Foreign Direct Investment,Transactions Linkages,and the Performance of the Domestic Sector

Using data from the UK Census of Production, including foreign ownership data, and information from UK industry input-output tables, this paper examines whether the intensity of transactions linkages between foreign and domestic firms affects productivity growth in domestic manufacturing industries. The implications of the findings for policies promoting linkages between multinational and domestic firms in the UK economy are outlined.     

HOUSEHOLD INCOME PLUS HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTION: THE DISTRIBUTION OF EXTENDED INCOME IN THE U.K.

This paper provides new estimates of the distribution of extended income amongst non-elderly, one-family households in the U.K. by combining household money income data and valuations of household production time. Extended income is substantially more equal than money income and extending the income definition changes income relativities significantly between families with and without earners and between married couple families and singles.     

Quality perceptions under evolving information conditions: Implications for diet,health and consumer satisfaction

Consumers’ perception of, and satisfaction with, fruit quality is an important issue for both public policy and commercial reasons. However, because of information problems, consumers cannot easily choose fruits of a quality most likely to satisfy their preferences and health needs. The research reported here employed an experimental auction method to test perceptions of fruit quality by evaluating the willingness to pay (WTP) of consumers for five different varieties of soft citrus under three different information conditions: visual inspection of the fruit before peeling; visual inspection after peeling; and after consumption. Significant differences were found in valuations of the different varieties as consumers gained information. Conclusions are drawn about the value of the methodology and the results themselves, and implications are inferred for policy and for growers and traders. It is argued that product information should be oriented not just towards nutritional education but also towards increasing the pleasure of healthy eating.     

British export market selection and pricing

The existing literature favors key market concentration in exporting, but the results of a recent survey of industrial exporters in the north of England show that the key market argument is weak both on logical grounds and in empirical support. There is an alternative strategy—market spreading—supported by various company, product, market, and marketing factors. The need is for situational analysis, not general theories. This article also addresses the key issue of export pricing—the most highly rated marketing variable in exporting. It is seen that whereas many of the popular criticisms of exporters are apparently unfounded, there are some problems of policy consistency, particularly in responding to floating currencies. These are especially serious in view of the high emphasis placed on price competitiveness in exporting.     

The influence of colour on visual search times in cluttered environments

Fifty subjects participated in a series of visual search tasks where the aim was to explore the influence of colour on visual search times for targets situated in a series of cluttered distractor fields. The results supported previous findings regarding the effect of colour and showed that, even in cluttered environments, certain hues helped in the reduction of search times. The findings also indicated that there were interaction effects between the colour and positioning of the targets in the distractor fields.     

A note on the Robust Trend and ARARMA methodologies used in the M3 Competition

This brief note describes two of the forecasting methods used in the M3 Competition, Robust Trend and ARARMA. The origins of these methods are very different. Robust Trend was introduced to model the special features of some telecommunications time series. It was subsequently found to be competitive with Holt’s linear model for the more varied set of time series used in the M1 Competition. The ARARMA methodology was proposed by Parzen as a general time series modelling procedure, and can be thought of as an alternative to the ARIMA methodology of Box and Jenkins. This method was used in the M1 Competition and achieved the lowest mean absolute percentage error for longer forecasting horizons. These methods will be described in more detail and some comments on their use in the M3 Competition conclude this note.     

Inward investment, industry concentration and the speed of adjustment

Inward Investment, Industry Concentration and the Speed of Adjustment. — The paper develops a model of concentration, based on the standard literature of concentration determination, which is then estimated using a frontier approach within a panel framework. Such a model provides an estimate of the lower bound of concentration in the industry, based on observed industry level characteristics. The paper then develops a model of concentration change, which shows that foreign penetration acts to reduce concentration levels, and also acts to increase the rate at which the industry moves towards this equilibrium. Finally, the importance of this deviation, in terms of explaining foreign penetration is explored.     

Macro Determinants of FDI Inflows to Japan: An Analysis of Source Country Characteristics

This paper examines the source country determinants of FDI into Japan. The paper highlights certain methodological and theoretical weaknesses in the previous literature and offers some explanations for hitherto ambiguous results. Specifically, the paper highlights the importance of panel data analysis, and the identification of fixed effects in the analysis rather than simply pooling the data. Indeed, we argue that many of the results reported elsewhere are a feature of this mis‐specification. To this end, pooled, fixed effects and random effects estimates are compared. The results suggest that FDI into Japan is inversely related to trade flows, such that trade and FDI are substitutes. Moreover, the results also suggest that FDI increases with home country political and economic stability. The paper also shows that previously reported results, regarding the importance of exchange rates, relative borrowing costs and labour costs in explaining FDI flows, are sensitive to the econometric specification and estimation approach. The paper also discusses the importance of these results within a policy context. In recent years Japan has sought to attract FDI, though many firms still complain of barriers to inward investment penetration in Japan. The results show that cultural and geographic distance are only of marginal importance in explaining FDI, and that the results are consistent with the market‐seeking explanation of FDI. As such, the attitude to risk in the source country is strongly related to the size of FDI flows to Japan.