The Terminal Value and Inflation Controversy

This journal recently published what was effectively a debate between Gunther Friedl and Bernhard Schwetzler (hereafter “F&S”), on the one hand, and Michael Bradley and Gregg Jarrell (“B&J”). B&J initiated the first round of the debate by criticizing the constant growth valuation model, commonly known as the “Constant Growth Model” or “Gordon Growth Model.” The Gordon Growth Model was introduced by Myron Gordon and Eli Shapiro (“G&S”) in a 1956 paper and has long been widely used by corporate and investment practitioners. F&S responded to B&J with a defense of the original G&S formulation. In revisiting this debate, the authors find that the models B&J and F&S advocate are at bottom two different versions of the same G&S constant growth model, but with quite different assumptions about the effect of inflation on the amount of capital reinvestment required to sustain businesses over time. The authors resolve the dispute by showing that both models, when using a consistent set of assumptions about inflation and capital reinvestment, produce identical growth rates and estimates of value. At the same time, however, the authors recognize that the two models (the G&S/F&S model, on the one hand, and the B&J model on the other) are likely to be appropriate for very different kinds of companies, and each for only small subsets of companies.     

Intelligence and corruption

This study finds that countries with high-IQ populations enjoy less corruption. I propose that this is because intelligent people have longer time horizons.     

Inflation and the Constant Growth Model: Reconciling the Literature

We formulate a generalized constant growth valuation model incorporating inflation and capital maintenance. We find that in general there are two sources of growth: growth due to capital maintenance and growth due to net new investments. The generalized version of the constant growth model allows the reconciliation of the existing literature, particularly the works of Gordon and Shapiro (1956), Lally (1988), and Bradley and Jarrell (2008), which all employ particular definitions of capital maintenance. Evaluating the practical relevance of either model we find that each model is best suited for a very particular company set‐up, which does not necessarily correspond to the commonly observed business models. The generalized version of the constant growth valuation model, however, presents a flexible approach that is capable of capturing various conceptions of capital maintenance.     

The Evidence on Globalisation

Globalisation is blamed for many socioeconomic shortcomings. I discuss the consequences of globalisation by surveying the empirical globalisation literature. My focus is on the KOF indices of globalisation that have been used in more than 100 studies. Early studies using the KOF index reported correlations between globalisation and several outcome variables. Studies published more recently identify causal effects. The evidence shows that globalisation has spurred economic growth, promoted gender equality and improved human rights. Moreover, globalisation did not erode welfare state activities, did not have any significant effect on labour market interaction and hardly influenced market deregulation. It increased, however, within‐country income inequality. The consequences of globalisation thus turn out to be overall much more favourable than often conjectured in the public discourse.     

Are pesticides risk decreasing? The relevance of pesticide indicator choice in empirical analysis

The reduction of adverse health and environmental effects from pesticide use is currently a top priority on the agricultural policy agenda. Efficient pesticide policies must take into account farmers’ application behavior, especially effects of pesticide use on economic risk. However, previous results regarding the direction of risk effects of pesticides are ambiguous. We show that the ambiguity in earlier studies could be due to the pesticide indicator selected. Indicators which fail to account for the heterogeneous properties of pesticides may be inapt for interpreting farmers’ pesticide use decisions. Our analysis, based on a rich panel dataset of Swiss wheat producers with highly detailed information on pesticide use, considers different pesticide indicators and multiple sources of uncertainty. Our key finding is that indicator choice affects the magnitude and sign of estimated risk effects. Estimates of pesticide productivity and risk effects are significantly higher for fungicides, and even reversed for herbicides when we measure pesticide use in simple quantity units (kilogram per hectare) - compared to the quality and intensity corrected Load Index. This means for example, that farmers will ceteris paribus use lower quantities of herbicides, but will increase the overall toxicity of the products applied with increasing risk aversion. We discuss implications of our findings for the design of pesticide policies and agricultural risk management instruments.     

Suppliers’ Compliance with MNCs’ Codes of Conduct: Behind the Scenes at Chinese Toy Suppliers

Despite increased academic and practitioner interest in codes of conduct, there has been little research into the actual compliance of suppliers in developing countries with the codes of conduct of multinational corporations (MNCs). This paper addresses this lack by analysing Chinese suppliers’ level of compliance with Swedish toy retailers’ codes of conduct. Based on unannounced and unofficial interviews with employees of Chinese suppliers, the study shows that all of the nine studied suppliers breached some of the standards in the toy retailers’ codes, with over two-thirds of the suppliers not complying with the majority of the studied standards. While there are different explanations of this lack of compliance, the main explanation seems to be that Chinese suppliers successfully deceive toy retailers’ monitoring organisations by decoupling the formal monitored part of their organisation from the actual operational part of their organisation. The paper concludes with a discussion of how to increase compliance with MNCs’ codes of conduct. Niklas Egels-Zandén is a PhD student at the School of Business, Economics and Law, Goteborg University, Sweden. His areas of research are international business and corporate social responsibility, especially in relation to multinational corporations in developing countries. He has previously published in Journal of Business Ethics, Business Strategy and the Environment, and Journal of Corporate Citizenship.     

Evaluating Strategies for Negotiating Workers’ Rights in Transnational Corporations: The Effects of Codes of Conduct and Global Agreements on Workplace Democracy

Following the offshoring of production to developing countries by transnational corporations (TNCs), unions and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) have criticised working conditions at TNCs’ offshore factories. This has led to the emergence of two different approaches to operationalising TNC responsibilities for workers’ rights in developing countries: codes of conduct and global agreements. Despite the importance of this development, few studies have systematically compared the effects of these two different ways of dealing with workers’ rights. This article addresses this gap by analysing how codes of conduct and global agreements both independently and interactively affect workers’ rights. We do this based on a qualitative study of the Sri Lankan operations of a Swedish TNC in Sri?Lanka, and on interviews with union and NGO representatives actively involved in codes of conduct and global agreements. Our results indicate that global agreements independently address all the aspects included in codes of conduct, while also addressing additional, more process-oriented aspects of workers’ rights. Hence, on their own, global agreements seem to comprise the superior approach to promoting workers’ rights. Furthermore, our results indicate that promoting codes of conduct has negative interactive effects on global agreements. Based on these results, we argue that the current focus on codes of conduct is counterproductive for the promotion of workers’ rights.     

Stock market linkages and financial contagion: A cobreaking analysis

Financial crises have shown that dramatic movements in one financial market can have a powerful impact on other markets. This paper proposes to use cobreaking to model comovements between stock markets during crises and to test for contagion. We find evidence of cobreaking between developed stock markets. In emerging stock markets, the evidence of cobreaking is mainly due to the non-financial event of the World Trade Center terrorist attacks in 2001. We find evidence of short-term linkages during times of crisis but not contagion. These short-term linkages have important implications for investors, risk managers and regulators.     

The Globalization–Welfare State Nexus Reconsidered

Two hypotheses relate to the globalization–welfare state nexus: the efficiency hypothesis predicts that globalization reduces government sector size and governments' capacity to finance the welfare state. The compensation hypothesis, in contrast, predicts that globalization induces a higher demand for social insurance which results in an extended welfare state. Empirical evidence on the globalization–welfare state nexus is mixed. The evidence is re‐examined by investigating a yearly panel dataset of 186 countries for the 1970–2004 period. This paper uses data compiled by the Penn World Tables on government sector size and employs the Konjunkturforschungsstelle (KOF—Swiss Economic Institute) index of globalization. The results show that globalization increased government sectors around the world. Social globalization especially had a positive influence. Globalization‐induced effects were stronger in Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) countries. Overall globalization and economic globalization reduced the relative price of government expenditures. These findings suggest that globalization does not jeopardize the welfare state at all.